It has become impossible to ignore the Celtics’ recent struggles in their own building come playoff time. Brad Stevens alluded to it in his end-of-the-year press conference, and they were magnified with their Game 7 loss in TD Garden to the 76ers in round one, the second time in four years that their season has ended in a home Game 7.
That’s something that you’d think should never happen, especially in a great arena like TD Garden with an elite Celtics fanbase. And for almost the entire history of the NBA, this would have been a glaring red flag. But this type of thing has become more common than you might expect.
In these playoffs alone, we’ve now seen five Game 7s, and the road team has won three, including the Spurs going into Oklahoma City on Saturday night and clinching a trip to the NBA Finals on the Thunder’s home floor.
But this trend started before this postseason. Going back to the 2021 playoffs, home teams are now just 9-12 in Game 7, good for a 42.8% winning percentage. Before 2020 (the bubble playoffs that offered no real homecourt advantage), home teams in Game 7s were 106-29, good for a 75.8% winning percentage.
Homecourt has become a disadvantage in Game 7
It’s hard to fully explain this bizarre shift in recent years, but one thing is clear: homecourt advantage in the biggest games is not what it used to be. Teams are clearly better prepared to go on the road and thrive in hostile environments, and if anything, rabid fans may be fueling opponents instead of intimidating them.
Furthermore, the high stakes and tension in the building can be palpable, and when things get off to a rough start, you can feel a sort of nervous energy from home fans. Not only does this weigh on the home team’s players, but it can also act as inspiration for the opponents.
Players are certainly aware of this stuff, and they can feed on the growing concern in the crowd, being motivated to further shut them up and send them home unhappy. There are a lot of sensible theories and reasons for what is occurring, but it’s much tougher to figure out how to fix it.
There’s no clear path for the Celtics to revive their homecourt advantage, but it’s something they must work on. It’s not like they should suddenly start tanking games in the regular season to ensure more road playoff games (although I can’t say I haven’t considered it), so they need to figure out how to reestablish a dominant advantage that leaves teams scared to come into the Garden for big games.
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