With just one final day in the NBA regular season, almost everything has been determined as far as playoff seeding. The Celtics are locked into the 2-seed in the Eastern Conference, which means they’ll play the winner of the 7 vs. 8 play-in game that will take place on Tuesday night.
Technically, there are still three teams that could possibly fall into that game, but with the Raptors only needing to beat the lowly Nets to avoid the play-in, it seems all but locked in that the Celtics’ first-round opponent will either be the Orlando Magic or the Philadelphia 76ers.
Just under a week ago, I ranked each of the Celtics’ potential first-round opponents by how much I’d want to play them. I had the Magic at #2 on the list, only behind the Heat, and I had the Sixers at #4, only ahead of the Hawks and Hornets. But let that list serve as a reminder of how quickly things can change in the NBA.
Since I posted that blog, the Magic have rattled off five straight wins, and look fully healthy and are playing like a cohesive unit for the first time all season. On the other hand, the Sixers have struggled with Tyrese Maxey looking like a different player since returning from injury, and Joel Embiid being ruled out indefinitely with Appendicitis.
A series with the Magic would be a bloodbath
The last week has changed everything. Now, the Magic look like a team that’s getting hot at the right time. We saw them last year in the playoffs, and though they were banged up, they gave the Celtics a good fight and caused a lot of wear and tear in that five-game series.
This time around, they’ve added Desmond Bane, and they’ve got a healthy Franz Wagner. It’s still a series that Boston should win, but they’ve looked a lot better recently, and though the sample size is extremely small, with their starting lineup on the floor, they’ve had a 12.1 net rating, which would be best in the NBA.
Add their upside and potential to their health and the physicality they always bring, and we know this would be a tough, hard-fought series. On top of that, they should have a heightened level of urgency and some desperation. They had high expectations coming into the season after trading four first-round picks for Bane, and this season has been a massive disappointment.
If they can’t make an unlikely playoff run, there’s a good chance that some major changes are coming to Orlando in the offseason, so this could be a bit of a last stand for them. Playing a team that’s fighting for their lives would not be a fun experience.
The Sixers without Embiid can't bother the Celtics
Philly, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction. Without Embiid, they’re looking at a frontcourt rotation of Andre Drummond, Adem Bona, Dominick Barlow, and Jabari Walker. Paul George has looked solid since returning from his suspension, but his days as a number one option are in the rearview. Maxey is always a threat, but he looks like the burden of the long season and his hand injury are affecting him.
Even when fully healthy, the Sixers are more of a finesse team than a physical one. Without Embiid, they simply don’t have the talent to give the Celtics much trouble, and this one reeks of an easy sweep or maybe a gentleman's sweep.
Either way, the Celtics should be looking at homecourt advantage against a seven-seed, and that’s a series they should win regardless of opponent. But with a showdown against the Knicks looming in round two, the less taxing round one ends up being the better, and given the current options, the preference should be clear.