Last season, the Celtics became a margin machine under Joe Mazzulla, smoking opponents in the possession battle. It helped them overcome what was at least perceived to be a large talent gap and win 56 games en route to the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Mazzulla became obsessed with snatching every piece of low-hanging fruit and gaining every little edge, which made his team very hard to beat.
Boston leaned into this identity in the offseason, shedding Jaylen Brown in favor of fewer turnovers, more turnover creation, and better shot selection with Paul George. Adding Mitchell Robinson was supposed to enhance their advantage in the rebounding department even further, and on paper, it looked like this team was set to dominate.
Now, it’s not like they’ve struggled out of the gates or anything. The Celtics are 4-1 and have won four straight games, sweeping their homestand after a disappointing opening day loss in Detroit. But the margins have not been a success story at all, and if anything, the underlying numbers are a tad concerning.
The ways that the Celtics are best set up to dominate are rebounds, turnovers, and three-pointers. For reference, last season, the Celtics were 4th in three-point attempts and third in makes. They were third in rebounding and seventh in both offensive and defensive rebounds. They were also first in the league in turnovers, with incredible ball security. That combination drove their success.
Celtics have been just league average in turnovers, rebounds, and threes
But this season, through five games, those marginal victories have completely gone away. They’re just 10th in three-point attempts and sixth in makes. They’re 19th in rebounding; 22nd defensively and 15th on offense. And they are 14th in the NBA in turnovers.
Essentially, in the categories they want to excel, they’ve been around the middle of the pack. Obviously, it’s a very small sample size, but they haven’t exactly been facing the stiffest competition either. On Friday night against the Bulls, while the Celtics won by 14, they got outrebounded, including a 20-9 margin on offensive boards. Chicago also shot 15-for-50 from three while Boston was just 10-for-32.
It’s hard to grasp how this is happening against a fully healthy Celtics team, and it’s an early-season reason for worry despite the 4-1 start. The opponents are going to improve, and teams are going to get better at taking away what they want to do on offense. They’re going to need to rely on the margins much more going forward, and hopefully they’ll be there for them. If they want to be a contender, they’ll need to be.
Celtics' turnover creation on defense has been massive
Luckily, one way they have greatly improved on the margins is by forcing turnovers. That was never a strength for the Celtics, but this season, the Celtics are forcing 18.4 turnovers per game, which is fourth in the league.
If this is sticky, which it seems it can be, thanks to a more aggressive scheme and the addition of PG, and the Celtics can start taking better care of the ball, creating more outside shots, and figuring out their rebounding woes, then we’ll finally see the vision that was created in the offseason, and it should be glorious. But it would be nice to see some progress in the coming days as that sample size starts to get a bit more substantial.
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