Sunday’s Boston Celtics loss to the Portland Trail Blazers was a disappointing one. The Cs entered the matchup with a good chance to extend their win streak to five games against the 12-19 Blazers.
It seemed like they liked their chances, too, just a bit too much.
Boston finished the evening with more turnovers (20) than assists (19), four of which came in the final 1:08 of the fourth quarter. The late giveaways ended any hope of sneaking away with a victory after letting go of a 10-point lead earlier in the game.
They were careless at times, out of sorts, and not efficient enough (aside from Jaylen Brown, who scored over 30 points for the ninth straight game) to get away with it.
“They were doubling,” Brown said. “That was it. They were trying to get the ball out of my hands. We knew they were going to do that. I knew they were going to do that. So just, I guess they caught us on our heels a little bit and we weren’t able to take advantage.”
Turnovers have been more of a strength than a weakness for the Celtics this year
Ironically, the Celtics have been the most careful team in the NBA this season. At just 12.4 turnovers per game, they cough the ball up less than anyone else. Their gameplan, to this point, has been centered around winning the turnover battle and controlling shot margins.
“It’s because we don’t turn the ball over on the offensive end and we force turnovers on the other end,” Joe Mazzulla said of his team’s high net rating back in November. “We’re winning the shot margin on an expected basis.”
In games where the Celtics have turned the ball over at or below their season average, they’re 11-6. When they’ve given it away 14 or more times, they’re 6-4.
If the Celtics turn the ball over and miss all of their threes, then they're going to lose games
That’s not a bad win rate, especially when turning the ball over at an above-average rate. The story changes when you take a look at what’s enabled them to get across the finish line in those six wins -- shooting.
Boston shot 45 percent, 35 percent, 53 percent, 48 percent, 39 percent, and 51 percent, respectively, in their victories in spite of the higher turnover rate.
The losses look exactly how you’d expect: 29 percent, 34 percent, 35 percent, and 28 percent.
It seems like an obvious point. Of course, the Celtics win more games when they shoot better from long range. That’s how basketball works. It’s a make-or-miss league, as they say.
The concerning part is how unconscious they’ve been in those wins to bail themselves out of the sloppy play. Four of the six came at 45 percent or more from deep -- not a sustainable rate, in the slightest.
Sunday in Portland, Boston paired a 29.5 percent three-point performance with their 20 turnovers. They’re simply not going to win games with that formula.