There should be a height requirement to watch Boston Celtics games this season. Through 14 games, it’s been an absolute rollercoaster. All of the ups, downs, loop-de-loops, and corkscrews have led to seven wins and seven losses.
Typically, .500 isn’t anything to write home about, but Boston has definitely exceeded preseason expectations so far. For example, in The Athletic’s NBA Preseason Power Rankings, the Celtics found themselves in “Tier 5: The Basement Floor.”
“If the Celtics can’t create advantages offensively or get stops defensively, then what are they?” Law Murray questioned in his blurb about Boston. “A sneaky candidate for one of the worst teams in the league, especially if [Jaylen] Brown doesn’t hold up.”
In fairness to Murray and The Athletic, this wasn’t an uncommon take. Entering the season, the Celtics had one of the weakest frontcourt rotations on paper, and they lacked certainty on offense aside from Brown. Half the fanbase wanted to tank, the other wanted to see what this group was made out of.
The latter have been loving their basketball existence for the past month or so.
This isn’t meant to be a victory lap either, who does that after 14 games??
What’s been so impressive so far is that even with those valid questions and concerns, the Cs have not only managed to win half of their games, but should probably have won more of them. They rank eighth in offensive and net rating, and 11th in defensive rating, all while being in the bottom eight in three-point percentage, and bottom four in defensive rebounding percentage.
The eye test tells you that this Boston team isn’t your typical .500 squad, too. In fact, they rank towards the bottom of the league in “win differential,” which is defined as actual wins vs. expected wins based on performance.
It’s a long-winded way of saying they should have more than just seven victories through mid-November.
Joe Mazzulla and his staff have given the Celtics chances to win games
Joe Mazzulla and his coaching staff have done a tremendous job of ensuring that the Celtics are putting themselves in the best position to win every game, regardless of the circumstances.
As simple as it sounds, they’re just ensuring they have more chances to score than their opponents do.
Through 14 games, the Celtics have the lowest turnover percentage in the NBA at 11.4%, 11th most forced turnovers at 15.6 per game, and the fewest turnovers per game with 11. Those stats translate to Boston attempting the second-most shots per game at 94.2, and allowing the fewest attempts for opponents at 83.9 per game. Plus, they grab the seventh-most offensive rebounds per game at 13.7.
For example, the Celtics outshot the Clippers by 22 in Sunday's win. Even if you factor in an additional 15ish shots for LA's 30 free throws (one shot for each pair of free throws) without doing the same for Boston's 17, the Celtics still had a significant advantage in attempts.
It’s not a perfect science. Boston still gives up the sixth-most free-throw attempts, while they shoot the fewest, which factors into shot differential, too. Regardless, they’re giving themselves a larger margin for error despite their lack of top-end talent in comparison to recent seasons.
Ironically, Mazzulla continues to maintain the same mindset that he had during his first three seasons in charge. He wants to win the margins.
“It’s because we don’t turn the ball over on the offensive end and we force turnovers on the other end,” Joe Mazzulla explained to Hardwood Houdini last week. “We’re winning the shot margin on an expected basis.”
That last part essentially is Mazzulla saying that the Celtics have been in control of these games, regardless of the outcome.
Sure, you can complain that they should have won more games, and might want to blame Mazzulla for that. That’s simply not fair. Again, he and his staff have found a way for the Cs to be a top-eight net rating team, despite Payton Pritchard and Derrick White both slumping to start the year.
That’s a massive part of the expected offense to just not be able to rely on. Yet, they’ve fared just fine.
There’s still a lot of season left to be played, but if the Celtics start seeing the results that they should be with their net rating, the Joe Mazzulla haters are going to have to apologize.