The Celtics’ 123-110 loss to the Magic was not only devastating because of the way that it happened, but also because of what it means for their hopes of hoisting the NBA Cup.
Sure, they had a one-point lead with just under six minutes to play and then let up a 28-14 run to finish the game, but they all but erased any shot of making a deep run in this tournament.
What makes the NBA Cup so interesting is that it’s extremely difficult to win for the amount of clout that comes with it. I mean, the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks were both clowned for winning these last two years.
Anyway, only four teams from each conference advance to the knockout stage, and there’s little room for error because of how limited the number of group-play games is.
Boston’s loss to the Magic has them almost entirely behind the 8-ball.
Not only have they dropped a game, which makes it all the more challenging to win Group B, but they now have a point differential of -12. Should Boston be fortunate enough to find themselves in a position where a tiebreaker is needed, it’ll almost certainly come down to point differential.
What will it take for the Celtics to advance in the NBA Cup?
This could happen in one of two ways -- both of which will require the Celtics to win their remaining two games.
If Orlando winds up losing one of their three remaining group stage games, then there’s a chance that Group B could be decided by a tiebreaker. Even then, that would require another team finishing 3-1, so the tiebreaker would go to points, rather than head-to-head results, which is the first factor the league considers.
The second scenario would be the Celtics sneaking into the knockout stage via the Eastern Conference Wild Card. The spot goes to the non-group winner with the best record, which is always 3-1. So really, it goes to the team with the best point differential.
For perspective, the lowest point differential for any Wild Card team, since the competition’s inaugural run in 2023, was the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns, who outscored opponents by a total of 34 points.
There’s still time for them to make up ground, especially considering they have the privilege of playing the 1-8 Brooklyn Nets in two weeks. Quick math will tell you that to get there, the Cs will have to beat the Nets and Detroit Pistons by a combined 46 points over their next two games, but they’ve got their work cut out for them, to say the least.