From here on out, every single game matters. So did the regular season, but now, the line between glory and elimination grows thinner with every passing win or loss. The Boston Celtics are looking to become the first repeat NBA Champions since the 2017 and 2018 Golden State Warriors, but before they get the chance to play for gold, they need to get through three grueling rounds of playoff basketball.
Teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder are chomping at the bit to take down Boston and lift the Larry O’Brien themself, and each of them has a means of getting in the way. Internal problems could pop up, too.
Here are three obvious paths to a Celtics championship and three ways it could all come crashing down.
Obvious path - Elite three-point shooting
For the past three years, the Celtics have been the best three-point shooting team in NBA history. Every team coached by Mazzulla (all three of them) has tallied a top-five season of all-time in terms of total threes made, all culminating in this year, where Boston set the NBA record.
When the threes are falling, Boston is a very hard team to beat. “They can all shoot,” said former Celtics assistant and current Charlotte Hornets head coach Charles Lee. “They sit over there for however long, they check in the game, and they hit a three. It's frustrating to sit on the other side and watch it, knowing that you used to do the drills with them. The slice-out drills and fake pass shot and drive and kick to each other.”
Should the Celtics enjoy a red-hot playoff run from behind the arc, it will be very tough for anyone in the league to take them down.
Crashing down - Jaylen Brown’s knee
Prior to Boston’s final regular-season game of the season, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN provided an important update. “Celtics All-Star forward Jaylen Brown received pain management injections in his troublesome right knee this week in an effort to promote healing before Boston begins its title defense, league sources told ESPN,” Shelburne wrote.
Brown has been dealing with knee issues for a couple of months now, and while Shelburne also noted that he will be ready to go in time for the start of the playoffs, the issue could still get in the way.
If Brown isn’t his full self or the injury gets worse, it could hamper the Celtics’ ability to repeat as champions.
Obvious path - Ideal opponents
There’s no denying that the Celtics got a little lucky last season. Their rings were earned, but at the same time, they didn’t have to go through the Denver Nuggets or Oklahoma City Thunder in the finals.
Heading into this year’s postseason run, Boston is well-suited to match up with everyone, but there are definitely some teams they would like to see more than others.
If the Cavs and/or Thunder get knocked out before the Celtics have to face them, that would be a huge advantage.
Crashing down - Woeful shooting
For the same reason that elite three-point shooting would greatly help the Celtics, bad shooting would hurt them.
Boston is much more than their threes, but when they aren’t falling, things get much, much harder. They can lock in on defense and pick on mismatches as intensely as they want, but the threes need to go down.
Obvious path - Jayson Tatum master class
This applies to Brown, too, but when a team’s best player is playing elite basketball, they are generally hard to beat.
Last postseason, Tatum had a horrific shooting run, yet he was still one of the most impactful players on the floor at all times. If he can pair that all-around, two-way impact with great shooting splits, Boston will be an absolute juggernaut.
Crashing down - The Thunder
It’s not close: The Thunder are team with the best chance to beat the Celtics. Boston can pick on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on defense. They can bully Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns in the pick-and-roll. They see mismatches in Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton, and most other teams’ lead players.
The Thunder don’t have that.
OKC has built an elite lineup of two-way players, and they match up with the Celtics better than anyone around the league.
The Celtics have gotten a ton of open threes the two times they played the Thunder this season, but the shots didn’t fall. If that changes, the matchup is a whole different ball game.
But this matchup may be as close to a true 50/50 as there is in the NBA Playoffs.