It’s no secret that the Boston Celtics haven’t been playing up to par for a little while. They are still in second place in the Eastern Conference with a 27-11 record, but the Celtics hold themselves to a very high standard. And for the past few weeks, that standard has not been met. Not in their eyes, and certainly not in the eyes of their fanbase.
Losses to the Philadelphia 76ers on Christmas, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and, more recently, the short-handed Sacramento Kings have highlighted a slew of underwhelming performances by Boston. Whether it’s a cold shooting night or subpar defense, something seems to go wrong every game.
But then, why do the numbers look the way they do?
The Celtics have been bad in the fourth quarter
As pointed out by Cam Tabatabaie of Celtics Wire on Twitter, the Celtics have the fifth-best offense and fourth-best defense in the NBA over their last 15 games—a stretch during which they have gone a disappointing 8-7.
So, if their numbers are so good, why are they struggling? Well, a deeper dive reveals that their numbers take a massive dip in the fourth quarter. Over that same span of games, the Celtics are eighth in fourth-quarter offense and 26th in fourth-quarter defense.
Their play falls off a cliff in the final frame.
The Celtics are 8-7 in their last 15 games
— Cameron Tabatabaie (@CTabatabaie) January 11, 2025
In that span, Boston ranks 5th in offense and 4th in defense
But in 4th quarters during that span, Boston ranks 8th in offense and 26th in defense
Boston’s recent loss to the Kings was a perfect example of this. Through the first three quarters, the two sides were neck and neck. The Celtics had overcome a terrible shooting night and were keeping it close with the Domantas Sabonis-led Kings.
But when the fourth quarter rolled around, the Kings surged ahead. Led by a pair of Devin Carter threes, Sacramento rapidly jumped out to a 14-point lead within the first half of the quarter.
From there, the Celtics were left to play catch-up, and there just wasn’t enough time for them to claw their way back into the game. The fall-off in defensive effort, offensive cleanliness, and overall focus isn't what a championship team should be going through.
As mentioned, the Celtics are still in a fine place in terms of the standings. They aren’t in danger of missing the Play-In like the Phoenix Suns, and they aren’t fighting through a boatload of injuries like the Sixers. But they definitely aren’t where they want to be right now.
If Boston continues to struggle like they are, particularly in the fourth quarter, a solvable issue could turn into a long-term problem very quickly.
The Celtics still have championship gold on their mind, and not the title they won last year. They want another one. But if they want to get there, they need to fix their fourth-quarter problems.
And fast.