As the social media tag says, it’s going to be #DifferentHere for the Boston Celtics this season. The championship-level roster of the past two seasons has been shredded to avoid spending above the second-apron threshold. Rotation mainstays like Al Horford, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Luke Kornet will all be playing their basketball elsewhere. At the same time, the Cs will try their best to stay afloat as Jayson Tatum recovers from a torn Achilles tendon.
Make no mistake, there will still be SOME continuity in Boston. Members of the 2024 NBA Championship team, like Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser, will still suit up for the Celtics this year.
That remaining talent, combined with a weak Eastern Conference, should allow Boston to remain somewhat competitive in this so-called “gap year.”
Can the Celtics reach .500 this year?
The oddsmakers can’t quite decide how they think this group will fare, and have set the over/under win total for the Cs at 42.5 -- just slightly over .500.
Former Memphis Grizzlies Vice President of Basketball Operations turned NBA reporter for The Athletic, John Hollinger, is taking the under. In fact, he fears that the Celtics would need a lot to go right in order to come close to that line.
“The Celtics have their own first-round pick this season and zero incentive to invest anything in their 2025-26 roster unless it has longer-term benefits,” Hollinger wrote. “They’ll probably chase the Play-In Tournament if they’re close, and this conference is certainly capable of keeping them in the race. But 42.5 wins? It feels like a lot of things would have to go right for Boston to pull that off.”
This is just such a weird spot for the Celtics, isn’t it? They’ve been dominant in the East for years. Now, they’re set up to be a middle-of-the-pack team in a bad conference.
There are what, three, maybe four good-to-great teams in the East. New York, Cleveland, and Orlando feel like they’re better than the rest. Then Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Detroit have some good upside, but also some serious questions to answer before they’re taken seriously. Milwaukee could be competitive since they’ve got the best player in the conference in Giannis Antetokounmpo, but that’s all they have.
Besides those teams, it’s a lot of mediocrity. Who’s to say that the Celtics can’t capitalize and beat up on some inferior (yes, still inferior) teams towards the bottom of the East? That alone could do a lot for them in terms of hitting the 42.5 projection.
In fairness to Hollinger, there are a lot of variables with Boston this year. How will Jaylen Brown fare as the No. 1 option? Are Payton Pritchard and Derrick White ready for more offensive responsibility? How will Anferenee Simons fit into the rotation? Can the Celtics get away with Neemias Queta as their starting center and their lack of center depth in general? Can Joe Mazzulla adjust to this less-talented roster?
The list goes on.
Answering these questions sort of feels like betting a parlay. If all answers are yes, then there’s no reason to feel the Celtics can’t win more than 42.5 games. They may be able to hit 50. Once you start sprinkling in the nos, then it gets rough.
Not to mention that Boston holds its own first-round pick this season. All indications from the organization have signaled that there’s no intention to tank, but if a few injuries pile up, that may change, too.
It feels like a cop-out, but all of the surrounding variables make it difficult to project how Boston’s season will go. If I had to guess, I’d say that they wind up somewhere in the Play-In Tournament range. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they earned homecourt for the first round or missed the postseason altogether.
One thing that fans should feel confident in is that the lack of expectations should make it easier to appreciate whatever happens this season.