Winning solves everything. That’s always the case. Just look at last year’s Boston Celtics. At every sign of struggle—a loss to the LeBron James, Anthony Davis-less Los Angeles Lakers, losing to the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the first round, nearly going to overtime against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the ECF—questions arose. But they won a title, so none of that matters.
But none of that can be solved in the regular season. A championship can’t be won in Game 37, so questions persist. Oftentimes, optics take center stage over results. And optically, the Celtics defense seems odd.
Boston has one of the most versatile defensive teams in the NBA. From Jrue Holiday’s leadership to Derrick White’s shot-blocking to Kristaps Porzingis’ rim protection, they don’t have many weak spots. And that’s without mentioning the two-way play of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Yet, when it comes time to guard opposing stars, they go the extra mile. And it’s usually to an overamplified degree.
Mazzulla math looks weird but works (and it's built for the playoffs)
Rather than guarding teams straight up, Joe Mazzulla commonly chooses to send multiple bodies at opposing stars. In the Celtics’ win over the Nikola Jokic-less Denver Nuggets, they consistently threw two guys at Jamal Murray.
“I think with Jokic out, understanding how important Murray is to the game and not wanting him to have a major impact on it has a lot to do with it,” Mazzulla said after the game.
“We were double big, so we had rim protection. When you send two to the ball, you still want to make sure you protect the rim, so that helped a lot. And I just felt like we did a great job in rotations.”
In doing so, the Celtics forced other guys to lead Denver’s offense, including Russell Westbrook. Turning him into a scorer meant that Boston would have a relatively inefficient guard trying to spearhead the Nuggets’ entire game plan. And he did it.
Westbrook made four of his nine three-point attempts. Up to that point, he had only made three threes in three of his 34 games this year. The Celtics challenged him to answer the bell, and Westbrook stepped up.
Boston’s defense on Murray wavered in the second quarter, but in the long run, they won the game and held Denver to 106 points.
“They were shooting 50% from three in the first half, and we gave up some corner ones that we probably could do a better job on, but I thought, in that second quarter, we got away from some of our shifts,” Mazzulla said. “Allowing him to get into the paint and be free, and we just got away from that.
“But, like you said, for the majority of the game, we were really intentional about shifting. Making him play in a crowd versus multiple defenders. And we withstood some difficult shooting from those guys throughout the night, but you got to live with something, and I thought our second-half defense on Murray was really good.”
Murray finished the night shooting 8-of-17 from the field, but he only had four points in the second half. Their decision to actively slow him down worked, but Mazzulla’s other point is far more striking.
We withstood some difficult shooting.
Westbrook’s four threes. Julian Strawther’s three threes. Peyton Watson’s and Christian Braun’s two. Boston didn’t always leave those guys open, but their priority was Murray. That’s been a consistent sticking point in many of their games.
In their loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, they focused on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in favor of guarding Aaron Wiggins as closely as they could have. Against the Houston Rockets, they weren’t too worried about threes from role players. Versus the Minnesota Timberwolves. Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle were practically abandoned in favor of smothering Anthony Edwards.
“Just a good team win. Good environment. Knew it was going to be a close game. Thought we did a good job on the game plan, trying to keep Edwards in check,” Mazzulla said after Boston’s win in Minnesota. “And their role players hit some shots, but I thought we managed that. Forced 16 turnovers to four. Got more shots than they did.
“We got to clean up a couple of things, but I thought it was a good team win. Good attention to detail on both ends of the floor.”
Randle and McDaniels combined to shoot 9-of-15 from the field, but Edwards only had 15 points. Boston wanted to turn him into a playmaker, and based on his comments after the game, it’s painfully clear that their plan bothered him.
By the numbers, Boston did what they should have done. Mazzulla math dictates that preventing Edwards from getting one-on-one situations is more important than suffocating subpar shooters behind the arc.
But optically, it looks awkward. Just look at what happened on Christmas Day against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Boston chose to pressure Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, leaving Caleb Martin open from three. He drained a career-high seven triples and downed the Celtics.
“I like that you asked that question, because, to answer Gary's question, who do you help off of?” Mazzulla said. “He made big-time shots, but if you want to slow Maxey and Embiid down, you have to bring the game to someone. You have to have good shift activity.
“I mean, out of the nine threes he shot, I'll go back and look and see which ones were heavily contested. But that's the catch 22. Good teams who are shooting the ball well, they put you in a tough spot.”
Flashbacks of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals came in waves, as Martin sent the Celtics packing then as well.
But Mazzulla math isn’t designed to be perfect. It’s designed to win in the long run.
In the regular season, on a game-to-game basis, there’s no guarantee that shooters won’t get hot. Guys like Martin and Westbrook and Randle can make a bunch of threes at any point. Lu Dort even got in on the action to help down Boston in OKC.
However, in a seven-game series, Mazzulla is banking on that not happening four times. Last year, it worked. Miami got hot for one game—-Game 2—and Boston dominated the rest of the series. They let Isaac Okoro shoot against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They challenged everyone not Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the Finals. The Celtics wiped the floor with their opponent every series.
Even after a rough patch to end the 2024 calendar year, Mazzulla was looking at the projected math instead of the real results.
“Our expected defense is number one in the last 10 games, and our layup percentage defense is number one in the last 10 games, and our expected points per shot defense is like number three in the last 10 games,” he said. “But you know what our three-point percentage is? 28th.”
Instead of looking at Martin’s three-point extravaganza of the Pacers’ parade to the paint as problems, Mazzulla looked at the process. Because process over results isn’t just a three-point shooting mindset, it’s the same for defensive expectations.
Rather than looking at Martin’s shooting as the reason for Boston’s loss, perhaps they should have doubled down on containing Maxey, who had a free run to the paint all night. And against OKC, if the Celtics hadn’t shot 12.5% from three in the second half, Dort’s big triples wouldn’t be the story.
Watching the game, it may seem questionable to leave guys open from three. But the Celtics know what they’re doing. Mazzulla knows what he’s doing.
It may not look pretty, and Boston could certainly be better at executing their coverages, but Mazzulla math isn’t built for the regular season. It’s built for the playoffs. That’s where the true tests begin.