May 12, 2025, is a date that will haunt Boston Celtics fans for at least the next year. It was the night when Jayson Tatum went down with a ruptured Achilles injury, essentially smushing any title hopes for 2025 or 2026.
The injury was the first domino to fall in what’s been a pretty brutal summer for basketball fans in the Northeast. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday were traded, Luke Kornet left to join the San Antonio Spurs as a free agent, and all signs point to Al Horford doing the same with the Golden State Warriors if the Jonathan Kuminga situation ever resolves itself.
Now, after just a few months, the Celtics are a completely different team. They’re no longer seen as championship contenders around the league, and the fanbase is split on whether or not they’d like to see them tank for a better chance at a top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
But, what if it all didn’t happen? What if Tatum didn’t rupture his Achilles?
Would things be different?
I suppose that it would make sense to start at the very beginning and to answer hypotheticals starting there.
Would the Celtics have won Game 4 vs. the Knicks? The series?
Probably not.
By the time Tatum hurt himself, Game 4 was all but over. The Cs had just fallen down nine with just over three minutes to play, and momentum wasn’t on their side. New York played an excellent second half, especially considering that Tatum was on an absolute burner before he went down. The game itself felt like watching a boxing match where one fighter was hanging around, but eventually fell to the stronger man. On that night, it was the Knicks.
As for the series, it’s tough to say. The way things had gone until that point, the Cs hadn’t shown much of a reason to make fans feel confident in them again, after dropping both Games 1 and 2 at TD Garden in devastating fashion.
Would Kristaps Porzingis and/or Jrue Holiday still be Celtics?
Maybe, but it still feels pretty unlikely.
There were reports and speculation of big changes coming to Boston this summer, as early as March of 2025. The Celtics had been big spenders for the past few seasons and were finally about to feel the wrath of the league’s second-apron penalties. In short, the newest CBA put consequences in place that seriously hinder teams’ abilities to make moves when they spend above a certain threshold.
In Boston’s case, they had already spent above the second-apron line in two consecutive seasons. If they’d elected to make it a third in the 2025-26 campaign, then the penalties would’ve become even steeper. For what it’s worth, they still can, since the rule is technically geared towards organizations who overspend in three of five seasons, not just three in a row.
Heading into the offseason, the Celtics were projected to be roughly $20 million over the threshold, before even paying impending free agents like Kornet and Horford.
Change was always coming.
However, there could’ve maybe been less change if the franchise felt they’d have a real chance to compete again in the upcoming season. Perhaps Brad Stevens and co. would’ve found a way to trade just one of Holiday or Porzingis and shed salary that way instead of giving up both.
It was possible; it probably would’ve just required the Cs to cough up some draft capital to encourage another team to absorb either player’s salary.
All together, I’d say the trade category had maybe a 30% chance of panning out differently with a healthy Tatum.
How differently would free agency have gone with a healthy Jayson Tatum?
This. This is where there would be the most change in an alternate reality where Tatum was never injured.
Though there definitely would be room for variation, let’s attack this hypothetical as if both Porzingis and Holiday would’ve been traded as they were in reality. Not only does this seem like the most realistic outcome, but it also allows us to know what Boston’s financials look like in terms of apron space.
As of Aug. 26, they’re $7.4 million below the second-apron line, including the signings of Luka Garza ($2.75 million AAV) and Josh Minott ($2.45 million AAV). If you remove the signings, then they’d have about $12.5 million to spend.
Let’s talk about Kornet. The former Celtics big man signed a four-year, $41 million contract with San Antonio back in July. Though he was excellent for Boston, especially in the playoffs, it’s tough to imagine that the team would be able to afford that sort of payday and stay below the second apron.
Even if Tatum was healthy, Kornet would probably still be a Spur. Sure, he could’ve taken a discount to remain in Boston to compete for another title. The thing is, he already did that in 2024.
It was time for the Moose to get paid.
Horford is the guy who feels like he’s had his future altered the most. The 39-year-old big man has embraced what it means to be a Celtic and to play in Boston during both of his stints with the team. Since returning in the summer of 2021, he seemed to be over the moon to be back in Boston and competing for championships.
Without Tatum, the Cs aren’t at the same level of competitiveness. Considering that Horford probably only has one or two NBA seasons left in the tank, it makes sense that he’d look to compete elsewhere while he still can.
With Tatum, it would’ve made all the sense in the world for him to re-sign and ultimately finish his career with the Celtics. Boston probably could’ve offered him around $5 million and kept enough room to make another signing while remaining under the second apron.
That other signing very well could’ve been former Celtics guard Marcus Smart. Smart was bought out of his contract with the Washington Wizards last month and ultimately elected to join the Los Angeles Lakers on a two-year, $10.2 million deal.
By the time he became available, the Cs had already signed Garza and Minott, basically tying up any extra cap space they had. In the healthy Tatum hypothetical, it would’ve made a ton of sense for Smart to return to Boston, on a contract of similar value, and try and push for a title in the city where he spent nine NBA seasons.
Sure, the move wouldn’t instantly make the Cs title favorites, but it’d keep them competitive and would make for a great storyline.
Reality, it turns out, can’t be altered. As unfortunate as it is, we all have to accept it. Tatum is injured, Porzingis, Holiday, Kornet, and Horford are gone, and Smart is a Laker. If you told Celtics fans that this would be reality at halftime of Game 4 back in May, they probably wouldn’t have believed it.