BOSTON — When Caleb Martin drowned the Boston Celtics on Christmas Day, it was a blast from the past. A throwback to when his Miami Heat upset the Celtics in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals behind a barrage of threes. Joe Mazzulla’s Celtics decided to calculate their defensive efforts, but otherworldly shooting performances from Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson ruined that plan.
Fast forward to Monday night, and the math game once again crumbled below Boston’s feet. Their goal against the Houston Rockets was to shut down their offensive engines: Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Fred VanVleet. And they succeeded. “We wanted to get Jalen, Fred, and Sengun; we wanted to take them away, and then we kind of accomplished that,” Jaylen Brown said post-game.
But they didn’t account for Dillon Brooks.
“Dillon Brooks hit 10 threes tonight,” Jayson Tatum said with an almost sarcastic smile creeping across his face. “He set [tied] a franchise record. We didn't expect that for sure.”
Dillon Brooks hitting 10 threes vs. Celtics isn't first example of insane failed math
As the Celtics shifted their defense to prioritize pressuring Sengun, Green, and VanVleet, Brooks got some extra space. He started with a three in transition. Then he sunk one in the half-court. Then another. And another.
Before long, Boston adjusted to contest hit shots a bit heavier, but it didn’t matter. “You don't want to give him any dare shots, obviously,” Tatum said when asked about adjustments during Brooks’ monster night. “At that point in the game, he's hot and feeling good. So, try to run him off the line and make the contest a little tougher for sure.”
Brooks was hot, and the Celtics were in for a career night.
“Nobody would have expected Dillon Brooks to hit 10 threes,” said Brown. “And it happened tonight.”
This phenomenon is not new to the Celtics. And it stretches well beyond their ugly defeat in the 2023 ECF. In fact, it’s been more of a commonality than a rarity this season.
Zach Cox of the Boston Herald compiled a list on Twitter of every player who has tied or set their season-high number of threes made in a game from Christmas until now—and there are 12 different examples.
Led by Brooks’ 10 on Monday night, the group also includes the likes of Julius Randle (five), Russell Westbrook (four), and Derrick Jones Jr. (four).
Even before Christmas, there were more examples. Nikola Vucevic drained six against the Celtics. So did Pascal Siakam. Larry Nance Jr. hit five. And those three examples all tied or set career highs.
On paper, the strategy of defensive prioritization makes perfect sense. But in practice, it has blown up in Boston’s face time and time again.
“With the Brooks one, it’s tough because I think we did a good job on Sengun and Green and VanVleet—the three guys that really get them going—and he was a difference-maker for them,” said Mazzulla. “So, he hit some contested ones. It wasn’t like we didn’t adjust to them. He just hit some contested ones.”
Rather than focusing on Brooks’ triples, Mazzulla looked to Amen Thompson’s equally impressive night as a root of the Celtics’ problems.
“I think it’s just the ones that you give up. I think, in the first half, it was the Amen Thompson transition points,” Mazzulla said. “He’s obviously a high-level talent, so he’s going to get some. But we can keep him out of transition and do our best to keep him off the glass.”
Brooks and Thompson combined to score 69 points against the Celtics, shooting a combined 26-of-42 from the field. Houston shot a blistering 17-of-41 (41.5%) from three-point range, but outside of Brooks’ 10-of-15, they were just 7-of-26 (26.7%).
Transition points certainly hurt the Celtics. The Rockets went 7-of-11 for 18 points on fast breaks. Boston fumbled two massive defensive possessions to close the game, allowing Houston to score two easy buckets and seal a victory.
But the biggest trend coming out of Monday night is the one that traces all the way back to Martin. To Vucevic. To Randle. Because Brooks joined the club.
“He hit 10 threes tonight,” Tatum said. “It's tough. Didn't account for that at all.”
An occasional loss due to math makes sense by the logic of analytics. Process over results. “You got to live by principle, not by feeling,” Mazzulla said earlier this season. But at what point will the Celtics begin using the results to organize their process?