Brad Stevens knew what he was getting into. The Boston Celtics President of Basketball Operations surprised many by pulling the trigger on a three-team trade, ultimately landing Kristaps Porzingis while sending Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies.
They say the team that gets the best player wins the trade. On paper, that would be Boston. But if that player is wrapped in bandages, is that still the case?
Porzingis recently announced that he’s suffering from plantar fasciitis and won’t play for Latvia in the FIBA World Cup. The good news is recovery time is around 4-6 weeks and he should be fully healthy for the start of Boston Celtics training camp.
While that’s comforting, there are still reasons to be concerned.
Trading for Kristaps Porzingis is a huge risk/reward deal for the Boston Celtics that could be a success or a disaster
The Celtics organization says they are not worried, which is expected. And honestly, it’s better if Porzingis misses regular season games. The challenge will be getting Porzingis to the playoffs intact, which the Celtics can’t leave it up to chance.
Porzingis played in more than 70 regular season games in a season just once in his career, his rookie year. In his career, Porzingis played in just 402 out of 820 regular season games (49 percent), including missing the 2018-19 season with an ACL injury. Even if the 2018-19 season isn’t included, that’s 402 out of 738 games (55 percent).
Maybe some games Porzingis missed were DNP-CDs or for rest. Even if that’s the case, playing slightly more than half the games is a very low percentage.
The Boston Celtics are aware of the injury history of supersized players. According to a 2014 article on FiveThirtyEight, players 7-0 and taller miss 23.4 percent of games due to injuries. Porzingis seems to be well ahead of that pace.
Yet Boston double-downed on Porzingis and signed him to a two-year extension, locking Porzingis up through the 2025-26 season.
It isn’t as if the Celtics don’t have enough problems keeping another big man on the court. Robert Williams has played in 209 out of a possible 410 regular season games (51 percent). It would be wise to add more big man insurance based on their medical histories.
It hasn’t happened yet, but we’ve seen two young, developmental big men in Luka Samanic and Mfiondu Kabengele signed away from the Maine Celtics.
Even with the chance to add depth through the NBA Draft, the Celtics passed. There’s nothing wrong with the Jordan Walsh selection. It was an excellent pick. But Boston could have used a second selection and added either Trayce Jackson-Davis or Kobe Brown instead of trading for more future second-round selections. I rated both as great fits for the Celtics, along with Walsh.
37-year-old Al Horford better not be the only big man depth on the roster.
Now isn’t the time to panic, thankfully. Porzingis will be back soon and Stevens has room on the roster to add reinforcements. Hopefully, Stevens can do better than Blake Griffin or Luke Kornet.
But expect a panic every time Porzingis hits the ground or limps. The leprechaun hasn’t been kind to non-native Boston Celtics recently, namely Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, and Isaiah Thomas. Hopefully, it won’t be the same for Porzingis.
But we know about Porzingis. And so do the Celtics.