Best-case scenario: Boston Celtics vs. Hawks first round playoff preview

Behind an offensive rebounding clinic, the Atlanta Hawks walked into south beach, and defeated the Heat, setting up a first round series with the 2-seeded Boston Celtics.

A rematch of the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals was not meant to be. Seven different Atlanta Hawks finished in double-figures on the road as Quin Snyder leads a team to the postseason for the seventh consecutive season. Out of all the possible scenarios that this play-in tournament could have cooked up for the Boston Celtics, this has to be the most favorable.

Nobody believed in the Hawks to earn the East’s No. 7 seed. While Snyder has proven he can coach in the regular season, his ball clubs have failed to get past the first round in three out of the last four campaigns.

In the past, these two franchises have matched up a total of 12 times in the playoffs dating all the way back to the NBA Finals in 1957 when 37 points and 23 rebounds by the late Tom Heinsohn where enough to hold off Bob Pettit and the Hawks in seven games. Atlanta came out on top in the most recent series in 2016 when two current Cs represented the enemy. The last time Boston raised a banner to the rafters, its playoff run began with the Hawks. You can’t buy into history too much but given the way this ball club finished in June of 2022, their eyes are set on collecting two more wins than they did last year.

Boston will be heading into the postseason with a chip on its shoulder to not only represent the Eastern Conference for the second straight season, but finish the job this time. Trae Young’s team, despite picking up an impressive win on the road against an experience Heat team have been one of the most inconsistent ball clubs in the association this season. Finishing with a .500 record, the Hawks were never able to string together more than five wins in a row.

With all the talent on the wings, Boston is going to be able to attack plenty of one on one matchups to break down this porous defense. Young and players like Bogdan Bogdanovic are going to have a difficult staying in front of the depth Mazzulla has on the perimeter. Despite Atlanta dominance on the offensive glass in the play-in game, Boston should be able to eliminate that advantage as the league’s top rated defensive rebounding team in the regular season.

Young has experience playing high-level playoff basketball, but the Cs do not have to fear the idea of going head-to-head with postseason Jimmy Butler right out of the gate. It is a battle of two of the top-five highest scoring teams in the NBA in the regular season. The only difference is one team allows the fifth-most points per game and the other is a ball club who ranked second in defensive rating during the regular season.

A high-powered dynamic Boston Celtics offense should be far too much for Atlanta to handle over a seven-game series

If Miami had at least a competent offense on that particular day, Erik Spoelstra’s side would be taking a trip to TD Garden for Saturday afternoon. In the three triumphs over the Hawks this season, the Cs have produced an offensive rating of 125.4, over eight points more than the club’s season average. The 17-time NBA champions defeated Atlanta by an average of nearly 14 points per game, shooting over 52% in 144 minutes against the team that used to call St. Louis home.

With Jaylen Brown recovering just in time for Saturday, the Cs will have a near fully healthy team ready to take on Snyder’s side. Defensively, Boston is going to be challenged with the guard play of Young, and Dejounte Murray. Against Joe Mazzulla’s ball club, the two have a combined +/- of -28.5 over the two meaningful contests in which the two were a part of. These two have to be able to create offense for a side that is going to be test on all fronts by a team that has size at all five positions.

Like Atlanta did against Miami, it is going to have to rely on its ability to crash the glass and collect offensive rebounds. Despite possessing shooters like Young and Saddiq Bey, the Hawks are much more reliant on their ability to score the basketball in the paint. 66.9% of the Hawks field goals came from inside the arc through the 82 games that got them here. With Brown and Jayson Tatum buying more into the art of rebounding in 2022-2023, Atlanta is going to find it quite challenging to replicate its play-in win. In the postseason, you can’t take anything for granted. The Cs learned that last year, and will have their minds set on stopping what was one of the league’s best offenses during the regular season.

Round one schedule: 

Game 1: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics, Saturday, April 15, 3:30 pm EST (ESPN)

Game 2: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics, Tuesday, April 18, 7:00 pm EST (NBC Sports Boston, NBATV)

Game 3: Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks, Friday, April 21, 7:00 pm EST (ESPN)

Game 4: Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks, Sunday, April 23, 7:00 pm EST (TNT)

Game 5 (if necessary): Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics, Tuesday, April 25, (time TBD)

Game 6 (if necessary): Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks, Thursday, April 27, (time TBD)

Game 7 (if necessary): Atlanta Hawks @ Celtics, Saturday, April 29, (time TBD)

Winner gets either the three-seeded Philadelphia 76ers or the six-seeded Brooklyn Nets.

Buckle up. The ride to No. 18 begins now.

Series prediction: Boston Celtics in 5