What is the best Boston Celtics lineup this season?
By Eric Fritts
The Boston Celtics are in a rough patch if we’re being honest. It’s not worth the catastrophizing that most of the local media have made it out to be but there is some room for improvement.
One of the most notable topics of discussion has been lineups, specifically crunch time lineups.
The most popular take is that Derrick White should be this team’s closing guard in place of Marcus Smart. White has been remarkable all season and notably stepped up his production when Smart was sidelined with an injury. This has earned rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla some reasonable criticism.
In the C’s most recent loss to Utah, White didn’t get any fourth-quarter minutes. This has happened before and it’s something that Mazzulla is aware of. After an overtime loss to the New York Knicks earlier this year Mazzulla made the same mistake.
"“It’s probably a coaching fault of mine yesterday,” Mass Live’s Brian Robb reported after the Knicks loss. “I probably should have had him in at the end of the game. And so when we have the majority of our roster, balancing that out and trying to get the best players on the floor is important."
With concerns to the New York matchup there were at least more players available. Against Utah, White was the only available backcourt player, and yet he still made the same mistake. Joe Mazzulla criticisms are riddling basically all Celtics discussion mediums right now and some of it is deserved. White does deserve more crunch time minutes, especially considering the starting minutes he’s earned.
Nonetheless, Mazzulla and Celtics’ defenders online have noted that this Celtics team hasn’t even been able to play it’s ideal lineup, due to injury. Even more recently, rotations are being shifted more and more. Which might not excuse Mazzulla’s recent White benching but can help explain it.
Boston Celtics Lineup Data
So what is the Boston Celtics’ “best” lineup? What happens when the data is aggregated and looked at through a more macro lens?
Overall, it’s hard to say. As mentioned, the ideal starting five of Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Robert Williams has only logged 180 possessions thus far. In that time they have a differential of -16.4 per Cleaning The Glass. That isn’t great but it’s also not enough to base a solid judgement on.
The most popular five man unit is the same group minus Williams, and White added to the backcourt. That group has logged 788 possessions and is +12.7, ranking in the 76th percentile or better in points, effective field goal percentage, and turnover percentage. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise considering this squad has carried a good majority of the workload this season.
The teams best lineup in terms of differential is identical to the ideal starters, but with White instead of Smart. They’ve only logged 138 possessions but are a staggering +43.6. Those numbers would start to come back down to earth with more minutes, that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t still be productive. Again, that isn’t enough to base a solid opinion on but it is worth exploring more.
Marcus Smart/Derrick White + Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown
Dialing things down, to just the two stars and a guard things get more interesting. Lineups featuring Smart, Tatum, and Brown in total add up to -3.4 with 756 possessions. Swap out Smart for White and it shifts to +15.8, 512 possessions. This really gives credit to the argument that White should be playing more in place of Smart. Insert Brogdon into the point guard spot and it’s +5.8, but only at 187 possessions.
Obviously the Jays are the biggest deciders of this. With Smart logging more minutes there are going to be diminishing returns, it’s also entirely possible that he just so happens to be out there on for Jayson and Jaylen’s bad nights. But, this isn’t an inconsequential amount of data or results. It’s more than worth noting.
Conclusion
All things considered this team still sits at 2nd in adjusted net rating at 6.1, is tied for third in adjusted offensive rating, and is fifth in adjusted defensive rating per Dunks and Threes. Among contenders they are still the only one in top five in all three categories, but fellow East competitors Philadelphia, and Cleveland aren’t far behind in the top eight. The Boston Celtics have the 11th strongest remaining schedule per Tankathon.com.
Once the playoffs start the margin for error shrinks but there are also benefits to facing the same opponent for two weeks. Hopefully the most efficient lineups will shine and earn more minutes. White noticeably fell off last playoff but since then he has improved greatly. It’s possible we’ll see him more this time around.