Heading into the end of November, Jayson Tatum has proved that his game has taken a step forward, putting him in the conversation for the NBA’s most prestigious individual honor. The past seven MVPs have failed to lead their team to an NBA championship, but there is something about where Tatum has brought his game combined with the roster that Brad Stevens has constructed that puts this team back into contention to finish the job Boston had to finish.
Overall, an MVP’s team goes on to win the NBA title only 34 percent of the time during the 67 years since the award has been given. Despite a lot of success in the Eastern Conference under Brad Stevens, and Doc Rivers, the Celtics have yet to have an MVP since Larry Bird was awarded his third straight individual award following the 1985/86 campaign.
Over the last four years, the award seems to recognize the player’s importance to his team rather than who had the overall best individual season. According to the results from the previous four years, possessing an all-around game is essential. Both Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo have combined to win every MVP award since the 2018/19 season, and in each campaign, they both averaged over 26 points, double-digit rebounds, and over five assists per contest.
A few days ago, Tatum spoke about being in this season’s MVP discussions, stating:
"“You want to play at an MVP level. Usually, if you play at an MVP level, you are on one of the best teams playing efficiently…The team is winning, and on the right path to go back to the Finals.”"
He continued, saying:
"“As a kid, was one of my dreams winning MVP? Sure,’ Tatum added. ‘If it happened, it would be a dream come true…But it wasn’t, like, “Come back, win MVP.” It’s like, “Come back, get to the championship.”"
Jayson Tatum is boosting his MVP candidacy through one key improvement
The former Duke star is averaging over 30 points per game, good for sixth best in the league on top of averaging the fewest giveaways per contest of the players sitting in the top ten on the scoring charts. Four out of the last 10 MVPs have given away the ball fewer than four times per contest. Jayson Tatum has gotten a lot better with ball security, only turning the ball over 2.4 times per game while playing the second-most minutes in the entire league.
He has a net rating of 9.2, which is 11th best in the NBA for players that feature in 25 or more minutes per game for their respective teams. Last season, Jayson Tatum was first in the league in that category, demonstrating his ability to affect the game with his quickness on the defensive end, and his creativity on the offensive end.
In comparison, during Antetokounmpo’s MVP seasons, the Bucks’ star finished with a net rating inside the top five in the league for players that contributed in 25 or more minutes each night out. Antetokounmpo averaged about 1.15 steals and 1.25 blocks per game over his two MVP years. Tatum so far is averaging 1.3 blocks per game, and nearly one steal per contest, sitting at 0.9 at the moment. Comparing it to Jokic’s back-to-back MVP seasons, Tatum has an offensive rating inside the top ten of the NBA for contributors with 25 or more minutes under their belt each game, just like the Serbian center did for the Nuggets in the previous two campaigns.
His playing-making abilities, aggressiveness to take defenders on, and not settling for a jump shot have been just two of the hallmarks of his game so far this season. Tatum may be putting up the most three-pointers of his career, but in games where his shot is simply not there, he influences the game in other ways, putting his teammates in positions to score when nothing seems to be falling for him. That is the biggest difference from where Tatum is this season compared to the last.
There is no question that Jayson Tatum has worked on his game over the offseason, and when looking at many of these numbers comparing him to past winners of the MVP, it is clear that he has to be in the conversation. Analyzing the past two players to win the award is a good measure to see how the media has recently voted for the award. Comparing Tatum’s season to the ones of Bird or even Micheal Jordan is not one that makes the most sense.
What the media and voters take into consideration now is completely different from 10 years ago with the evolution of the game of basketball. Seeing how close the Celtics’ star is to what both Jokic and Antetokounmpo accumulated over one year so far is promising. Seeing Boston win games at a consistent rate is something that could be taken into consideration, with five out of the last seven teams that the MVP was on finishing in the top four of their respective conference.