Boston Celtics: Player expectations for the 2022-23 season
We’re now less than two months away from the Boston Celtics opening night tip off against the Philadelphia 76ers. This season should be one of the most exciting Celtics seasons in a while as it follows up a year where the Celtics exploded onto the sports biggest stage — where they came within two wins of bringing home their first NBA Championship in over a decade.
With offseason acquisitions of Malcom Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari, the Celtics are once again poised to be contenders, with a deep playoff run seeming all but certain for this loaded group.
But enough about team performance – how will the players do? Will we see Jayson Tatum eclipse the illustrious 30 point per game mark? Will Robert Williams continue his postseason dominance from just a few months ago and finally average the double double that he just missed out on last season?
Here are the Houdini’s thoughts and predictions on the Boston Celtics 10 most impactful players heading into the 2022-2023 season
Jayson Tatum
Last Season: 26.9 Points, 8.0 Rebounds, 4.4 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 27.4 Points, 8.1 Rebounds, 5.3 Assists
Tatum was scoring the ball out of this world in the second half of last season and into the first few rounds of the playoffs. We saw his scoring numbers dip due to what Tatum called a non-displaced wrist fracture that he suffered in Game 3 of the second round against the Bucks.
While Tatum is one of the games few truly elite scorers, the addition of Malcolm Brogdon and the offensive heroics of Jaylen Brown last playoffs paired with Jayson Tatum’s emerging playmaking capabilities mean that there might be less looks for Tatum on the offensive end. And while Tatum could put up 30 points a night, I doubt he will get the amount of shots up to get him there.
Tatum’s rebound numbers have improved every year, with his eight rebounds per night last year setting the mark as his career high. Tatum’s passing game took a massive jump during their NBA Finals run, as we saw him rack up over six assists per night, while wowing fans with cross court, no look, and through traffic passes. I’ll be looking to see if he continues to increase his passing input during the regular season.
Could this be the season that we see Jayson Tatum emerge as an MVP finalist?
Jaylen Brown
Last Season: 23.6 Points, 6.1 Rebounds, 3.5 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 22.2 Points, 6.3 Rebounds, 3.7 Assists
Jaylen Brown could see his numbers tick down a bit after the Celtics traded for Malcolm Brogdon last month. With the addition of another three level scorer, Brown might end up seeing the ball in his hands less, making his off ball movements and cuts to the basket key to his offensive numbers.
Brown’s inconsistencies come with his streaky shooting, as some nights it would take him 20+ shots to hit the 20 point mark. With increased room on offense and less defensive pressure his way, Brown should have no trouble getting to his spots on the floor and cashing in, but with Tatum and Brogdon in the mix, Brown might have more trouble getting the ball than he has in years past.
Robert Williams III
Last Season: 10.0 Points, 9.6 Rebounds, 2.0 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 13.1 Points, 10.2 Rebounds, 2.8 Assists
The Time Lord is quickly emerging as one of the league’s most formidable defensive forces in the paint, and his offensive numbers have quietly been increasing as well. His 10 points a night last year was a two point bump over his previous season and almost double the year prior.
A key catalyst in his increased point production was his nearly 30 minutes a night, an 11 minute increase from the 2020-2021 campaign. If Williams can stay healthy and once again hover around the 30 minutes a night mark, I can see his scoring take another jump, due to his offensive rebound numbers accounting for almost half of his total rebounds last year.
A menace around the basket, with an increased number of shooters on this Celtics roster who can also spread the floor, Williams will have more room and opportunities to snatch misses off the rim to put back up. His rebounding numbers ballooned by nearly three last year compared to the year prior, and I fully expect him to hit the 10 rebound mark this year.
We saw glimpses of Williams’ passing ability throughout last year, with effortless cross court and blind passes out of the post on occasion. If Williams continues to develop that part of his game, this Celtics offense will be even more explosive than it already is.
Marcus Smart
Last Season: 12.1 Points, 3.8 Rebounds, 5.9 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 10.4 Points, 3.6 Rebounds, 5.6 Assists
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year and the first Celtics point guard to lead the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals since Rajon Rondo, Marcus Smart is returning for his ninth season with the Celtics and his second as their starting point guard.
While still in the starting lineup, Smart’s numbers will likely take a slight decrease due reduced minutes after the Celtics traded for Malcolm Brogdon this summer. Either way, Smart will still continue to be a streaky knockdown three point shooter while playing elite defense and continue to get under opponents skin. Last year we saw his playmaking numbers go up, and I expect them to remain consistent, but a slight dip could be expected due to likely reduced minutes.
Al Horford
Last Season: 10.2 Points, 7.2 Rebounds, 3.4 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 8.8 Points, 6.8 Rebounds, 4.1 Assists
Al Horford was able to turn back the clock during last year’s playoff run, posting multiple 20 point games and being a driving force defensively. Entering his age 36 season, Horford’s numbers have gone up and down over the last few years all while his defense has continued to be elite. Horford won’t have to score the ball as often as he did last year due to the additions of Brogdon and Gallinari, allowing him to exert the lions share of his energy on the defensive side of the ball.
While his three point shooting and ability to stretch the court will always be one of Horford’s best offensive intangibles, last year saw his lowest point per game total since his rookie year. With a decreased offensive role and some more miles on his aging knees, this looks like the year where Horford could average under 10 points per game for the first time in his career.
Despite this, I still believe that Al Horford’s defense will remain elite and his playmaking will see an improvement with the increased number of weapons that this Celtics team has heading into the 2022-2023 season.
Malcolm Brogdon
Last Season: 19.1 Points, 5.1 Rebounds, 5.9 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 16.3 Points, 3.8 Rebounds, 5.5 Assists
Before last season started and the Boston Celtics were looking for a point guard, there were three players that I thought would be a dream fit for this team — Dejounte Murray, Lonzo Ball, and Malcolm Brogdon. The latter of the group and the one who found himself to Boston in a trade just a few months ago, Brogdon provides elite defense, a consistent three ball, above average court vision, and the size and length to fit in any lineup that Celtics coach Ime Udoka decides to run out.
The former Rookie of the Year will serve as the Celtics 6th man, at least to start the season, a role that Brogdon has recently said he is ready to embrace. Despite having to come off the bench, Brogdon’s numbers likely won’t drop off drastically.
Derrick White, the Celtics first man coming off the bench last year, logged just over 27 minutes per game. Brogdon could likely see just north of 28 minutes a night – which he hasn’t seen since he averaged 15/4/3 in his final season in Milwaukee. Brogdon will continue to be a playmaker in this Boston Celtics offense, and he will consist of the best defensive backcourt the NBA has seen in recent years, alongside Smart, Brown, and White.
Derrick White
Last Season: 11.0 Points, 3.4 Rebounds, 3.5 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 9.8 Points, 3.2 Rebounds, 3.3 Assists
The player who was impacted the most following the trade for Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White will see a reduced number of minutes, losing the 6th man crown to the Celtics new point guard. White showed heavy inconsistencies last year, going from shooting the lights out one game to struggling mightily offensively the next.
Despite this, White will still be a valuable asset, as his ability to hit the three ball while also having a knack to drive and kick will continue to fuel production from the Boston Celtics second unit.
Danilo Gallinari
Last Season: 11.7 Points, 4.7 Rebounds, 1.5 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 11.4 Points, 4.4 Rebounds, 1.7 Assists
Someone who isn’t being talked about enough heading into next season is Danilo Gallinari, and with the addition of Brogdon, it’s easy to understand why. The Celtics have lacked consistent flamethrower three point shooting over the last few years, and they finally have one in Gallinari.
Standing at six-foot-10, Gallinari will feast in the Boston Celtics drive-and-kick heavy offense, and his ability to get hot at a moments notice and take over games will serve to be invaluable. While one of the few weak links in the Celtics defensive schemes, Gallinari’s production on the offensive end will be key to the success of the Celtics second unit — a luxury that they didn’t have last year, which led to increased minutes for starters, more injuries and fatigue.
Payton Pritchard
Last Season: 6.2 Points, 1.9 Rebounds, 2.0 Assists
This Season’s Prediction: 5.1 Points, 1.2 Rebounds, 2.1 Assists
Don’t let the numbers fool you – when Pritchard is on, he’s on. Just ask the Bucks, who fell victim in last year’s second round playoffs to multiple three point barrages from the Celtics point guard.
This year Pritchard will struggle to find minutes in the Boston Celtics crowded back court. Despite the limited minutes, Pritchard has always been able to make quick work, providing quick scoring and ball security off the bench. Pritchard will almost certainly take a step back in nearly all of his numbers this year due to reduced playing time.
Grant Williams
Last Year: 7.8 Points, 3.6 Rebounds, 1 Assist
This Season’s Prediction: 8.3 Points, 3.8 Rebounds, 0.8 Assists
At times during the Celtics NBA Finals run, Grant Williams was one of their most impactful players. At other times, he was practically non-existent. A defensive weapon due to his size and versatility, Williams offensive game will never overshadow his defensive value. His ability to switch and defend multiple positions was one of the key reasons why the defense of the Boston Celtics second unit last year was on par with the starting unit.
Williams’ offensive game is streaky, but his drastically improved three point shooting has made him a knock down threat in the corners and has resulted in his points, minutes and role increasing. With the addition of Gallinari, Williams won’t have the same three point shooting success as he had last year due to no longer being the primary kick out option with the second unit. Because of this, I would like to see Williams put the ball on the floor and get to the basket more, which he has proved to be more than capable of doing in the past.
Last season Williams’ free throw percentage was among the highest in the league at just over 90%, which should encourage Williams to get to the basket and draw some foul calls. If he can add that part to his game, I could see his scoring totals take a minor leap.