The Boston Celtics kicked off their 2021 offseason following a first-round exit to a division rival by trading for a 35-year-old center thought to be out of his prime.
Al Horford played just 28 games with the Oklahoma City Thunder the season prior yet was set to make $26.5 million the following season. Horford’s mid-level play combined with his high-level contract painted him a negative trade asset when the 2021 offseason rolled around.
So when Brad Stevens traded Kemba Walker and a first-round pick for Horford, you can understand the outrage. Walker was inconsistent, unavailable, and overpaid, but so was Horford, which made the inclusion of a fringe lottery pick a very questionable decision by Brad Stevens. The rest of the offseason is history.
Fast forward to now, 17 games into the season, and Horford is having one of the best two-way seasons at his position. He’s been key to the Boston Celtics success on both ends of the floor, and his intangibles have turned out to be unequivocally valuable to everyone, from Jayson Tatum to Ime Udoka to the 15th man. Let’s get into it.
Before Horford left the Boston Celtics for Philly, he was a different force on offense. He had it all. He could stretch the floor at a high level, roll to the rim, take guys off the dribble, lose guys in the post, swing the rock, set great screens, get to the line, and score a high volume when called upon to do so. Horford might not be the level of player he was back in 2017, but he still possesses all these skill sets.
His three-point shooting has been a little underwhelming to start the year, hitting just 28.3% of his 4.3 attempts per game, but everywhere else, he’s been pretty good. Horford’s hovering around 2% above league average TS% while hitting 77% of his shots in the paint and 50% of his shots from midrange.
Once his shooting regresses to the mean, which I expect to be around 36% from three, his scoring will go from good to great, and you’ll see the difference in the Celtics offense.
An ample reason Horford’s been able to remain such a viable low volume scorer despite his jumper not falling has been his pick and roll play. He ranks a very underwhelming 49th percentile in pick-and-roll plays, but rest assured that ranking does him no justice.
His touch has faded since his last trip to Boston, but the awareness and IQ are very much still intact, and it’s been on full display this season. Between Dennis Schroder, Marcus Smart, and Jayson Tatum, Horford has made everything easier for the three by being in the right place at the right time. He’s always ready to make a play on the ball or on a defender to get his guys better looks.
Besides Horford’s scoring, his passing has helped the Cs’ offense click. He’s averaging a modest 3.5 assists and 5.7 potential assists, but he’s 5th on the team in touches per game. When you factor in that, those two numbers become a little more impressive.
Horford’s most significant passing impact has occurred at the top of the key. With Tatum, Schroder, Smart, Josh Richardson, and once more, Jaylen Brown all driving to the paint, the Celts need a connector.
Horford has been that guy thus far. He’s done an excellent job relocating to make himself visible to the passer while keeping his options open once he receives the ball. He’s playing with that veteran maturity the Boston Celtics desperately needed last year.
On the defensive end of the floor, Horford has surpassed all expectations. Coming in, most thought he’d be a medium volume minute backup that could be, at best, a slight positive on the defensive end. We’re 17 games in, and Horford has been the best defender on the Boston Celtics and is making a solid run at an All-Defensive team.
Forget the stocks, the DFG%, the advanced defensive statistics. Horford’s mobility has been absurd to start the season. He’s 35 years old and is constantly getting talked about like he’s in his prime. Brian Scalabrine has repeatedly said that Horford looks like that 21-year-old rookie, and Schroder has said he forgot Horford was 35.
Nobody expected Horford to look like this.
He’s holding his own on the perimeter while providing incredible resistance at the rim. There hasn’t been a game where Horford has had problems with guys playing his position. The only game I can point to where Horford “struggled” was against Cleveland, and specifically Darius Garland. I thought despite the fouls, Horford was playing him better than most guard defenders could.
The balance, speed, strength, quick twitch, lateral quickness, vertical quickness, and mental intangibles are all still intact at age 35. He’s reading plays before they happen, locking up some of the shifty guards in the game, and flying all over the half-court to provide the timely help. The Boston Celtics defense would be in the middle of the pack without Horford. Instead, they’re top of the league.
There are a few things I expect from Horford as the year goes on:
- His 3-point percentage will get over the league average.
- His passing should start to balloon as the Celts continue to run higher pick and rolls for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
- His defense will probably fall off just a little as the season wears on, but I expect it to remain a level below the All-Defense caliber.
No matter how Horford ends the season, one thing is for sure. If this guy is healthy for the playoffs, watch out.