Boston Celtics: Predicting Jayson Tatum’s 2021-22 statline

The 2020-21 season was not friendly to the Boston Celtics, and Jayson Tatum got the worst part. As the best player on the team, he received most of the slander from media outlets regarding their struggles, all while he battled a deadly virus sweeping the world and impacting our daily lifestyles.

His young shoulders were enough to carry the burden, putting together a career year despite all his and his team’s hardships.

Jayson Tatum’s ability to improve and outlast adversity inspires such tremendous confidence in his ability to lead a team to a championship.

Even at 24 years old, the All-Star has shown he can be mature on and off the court and get others involved while creating for himself. With the leaps he has made year after year, he’s risen to the occasion of giving most people probable cause to predict a massive season from Tatum in 2021-22.

This article will analyze the franchise cornerstone for the Boston Celtics and what we can expect from him this year.

Let’s begin with his scoring output.

Jayson Tatum and his trainer, Drew Hanlen, have emphasized driving the ball to the rim and drawing contact from unsuspecting defenders. When asked what Jayson Tatum’s most significant jump this year will be, Drew Hanlen responded by saying, “Getting downhill to the rim more.”

We saw Tatum begin to unlock this aspect of his game towards the end of the season and into the playoffs, and we saw just how deadly he could be when everything started clicking for him.

For example, take game three against the Brooklyn Nets when Tatum erupted for 50 points and beat a team with Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving with Marcus Smart as his second-best player.

When Tatum’s putting the ball on the floor and pressuring the defense in the paint, his impact improves exponentially and it’s enough to beat the best of the best.

I think we’ll be seeing game three Tatum for the entirety of the season, which is why I predict the young superstar will break 30 points per game next season on elite efficiency.

Tatum can put himself into scoring title and MVP contention if he can sustain an FTr over 0.40 and up his drive count to around 17-20 drives per game.

With another jump in scoring, Tatum will improve even more as a playmaker, as I expect Tatum to take another leap as a passer and decision-maker by drawing more attention in the paint.

He’s not going to be LeBron James, but if he can be as decisive and crisp as Kawhi Leonard when looking to make plays for others, both the Boston Celtics and Jayson Tatum will fair well throughout the season.

Given that Tatum averaged approximately nine potential assists per game last year, and considering the Boston Celtics added better shooting and advantage scoring, it’s probable Tatum gets over the five-assist threshold.

Most of his assists will come from moving the ball and capitalizing on the gravity he generates from heading to the rack, but I also think the addition of Al Horford and the improvement of Robert Williams will help exponentially.

Horford will get more clean looks from deep than he’s seen since he left the Cs and Williams will have so many open dunks that their facilities crew will have to replace the rim after each half.

On the glass, Jayson Tatum is already an excellent rebounder for his position, totaling two seasons in a row where he’s averaged more than seven rebounds per game. However, Tatum’s rebounding numbers will likely decrease with Horford, Kanter, and the insertion of Smart into the starting lineup at the one.

Tatum won’t be responsible for starting the fast break but, instead, will only be asked to finish whatever plays Smart and Horford can make for him on the open floor.

Jayson Tatum should have enough energy to get back to his 2019-20 form on the defensive end as well.

Last season, Tatum was asked to carry a heavy offensive load and hence begun to slack off on the defensive end more. He was still an All-Defensive caliber player, but he wasn’t as active as one would expect him to be after adding more weight.

This year will be different.

With all the point-of-attack defenders that Brad Stevens has added, Tatum will play more of a help-side role. He can stalk passing lanes and linger around the rim to block unexpecting drivers.

As usual, Tatum’s steal rate will remain a few shades under two per game, but his block count will surge over the one per game threshold.

Overall, I believe Jayson Tatum’s 2021-22 numbers will look like 30 points, five assists, five rebounds, 1.5 steals, and one block per game on 61 TS%. His 3PT% should get back over 40% on his usual seven or eight attempts per game, but the critical number will be his rim totals.

Despite the increasing volume, Tatum could exceed 17 drivers per game and uphold his 70% shooting from 0-3 feet. The reason for his sustained efficiency will be the strength he’s added combined with the number of free throws he’ll be taking.

Most of his misses at the rim will turn into two made free-throws.