The Boston Celtics are at a crossroads in their 2020-21 season.
Right now, the team sits at 15-17 overall and has lost three-straight games. They’re in danger of letting things spiral out of control, but luckily for them, the All-Star Break is nearing. That could serve as a much-needed reset point for this team and could help them turn their season around.
The question is, are these Cs capable of reversing their fortunes this season?
After winning eight of their first 11 games, Boston has stumbled their way to a below .500 record, losing nine of their last 14 games.
There are still reasons to believe that they can right the ship and make the second half of the season much more memorable than the first.
Unfortunately, there are also plenty of reasons to think they don’t have what it takes to flip their fortunes.
Let’s take a look at some of the arguments as to why the Boston Celtics can and can’t turn their season around in the coming months:
Why the Boston Celtics can:
Still not at full strength
If there’s one thing that’s been true about the Boston Celtics all season, it’s that they have rarely been at full strength. That’s still the case right now and for the next week or so as well.
Boston has had to shuffle players in and out of the starting lineup all season long, and that’s still true right now with Marcus Smart recovering from injury until after the All-Star Break. That’s led to 13 different players making at least one start for the Cs this season, and the rotation has seemed to vary from game-to-game.
In fact, Boston has played 16 different starting lineups this season.
According to this in-depth post on the r/bostonceltics Reddit, this year’s team has been uniquely impacted by the timing of injuries and COVID issues. Boston’s most-used lineup of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis, and Tristan Thompson has only played a combined 94-plus minute together.
The projected “ideal” starting lineup of Kemba Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Theis has played on the court together for just 20:54.
If Boston can finally get healthy, they should be able to start clicking. The first half of this season has been a revolving door for the starting lineup, and that’s definitely a reason why this team is where they are right now.
Trades can make the right changes
The Celtics are viewed as a team that will be very active before the March 25th trade deadline, and the number of roster moves they make could have a huge impact on the makeup of this year’s team.
Boston has a $28.5 million trade exception still to use, which could lead to a big mid-season addition. Recently, Celtics co-owner Wyc Grousbeck stated that the team may look to use that trade exception in the offseason rather than during the 2020-21 campaign.
Even if their higher-ups elect to wait to use that after this season ends, there are still plenty of moves the C’s can make right now to add some valuable pieces to their roster.
There’s no secret that something needs to change with the Celtics right now. Aside from getting healthy, adding some consistent 3-point shooters, backcourt depth, or a legitimate scoring threat in the post could go a long way to addressing some of the team’s biggest deficiencies this season.
Only time will tell how much — or how little — Boston shakes things up before the trade deadline, but a few moves could really change the outlook of the season.
Easier remaining schedule
It hasn’t been an easy road for the Boston Celtics up to this point.
They’ve faced off against some tough opponents in the first half of the season, as their current strength of schedule ranks eighth in the NBA according to Basketball-Reference. On Team Rankings, however, their strength of schedule Power Rating ranks fourth overall.
Things look to be a little easier after the All-Star Break, however.
According to those same metrics at Basketball-Reference, the Celtics’ remaining strength of schedule ranks 13th in the league, a tad bit easier than the schedule they’ve played so far.
When looking at Tankathon.com, Boston’s schedule looks even easier, ranking 21st overall. Per Team Rankings, Boston’s future SOS is tied with Sacramento for the second-lowest in the entire league.
Their opponents over their final 36 games have a combined winning percentage of below .500 right now. They do still have two road contests with the Nets, back-to-back road games with the Bucks, and another meeting with the Lakers, Jazz, and 76ers on tap, but their remaining schedule does appear a little less brutal than their first 36 games.
Why the Boston Celtics can’t:
Defense has been lacking all season
Over the last five seasons, the Boston Celtics have had a pretty stout defense under head coach Brad Stevens. They’ve finished in the top 10 of the league in field goal percent defense in each of the last five seasons, and that’s led to one of the most efficient overall defenses in the league over the last half-decade.
This season, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
Boston currently ranks 20th in the NBA in field goal percentage defense, allowing teams to make 47 percent of their shots this season. Along the perimeter, the Cs haven’t been too bad, holding teams to just 36 percent from distance.
They’ve been pummeled in the midrange and the post, however, as teams have made a whopping 53.9 percent of their two-point field goals against the Celtics.
That ranks 22nd overall.
This team has also been fouling a ton this year, averaging over 21 fouls a game, which is the fifth-highest average in the league. Opponents are attempting 23.5 free throws a game against the Cs, and those teams are making 79.3 percent of those shots from the charity stripe.
The only reason Boston ranks in the top 10 in the league in points allowed per game (seventh) is because they play at such a slow pace. This year’s team only averages around 98 possessions a game, ranking 24th in terms of pace.
Opponents are only averaging 85 field goal attempts a game against Boston, which is the second-fewest among all NBA teams.
The problem is, those teams are making far too many of those shots.
The team’s defense has been a major issue no matter what lineup is on the floor this season. Unless a few trades can change that dynamic, there’s little reason to believe this will change.
Not enough quality veterans
Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are undeniable stars in the NBA right now. The Boston Celtics also have a lot of promising young talent spread throughout the roster.
Unfortunately, they really lack some high-quality veteran leadership. In fact, Boston’s older players have been some of their worst and least consistent on the season.
32-year-old Jeff Teague has been a massive disappointment at point guard, 30-year-old Kemba Walker has been all over the place in terms of efficiency since returning from his offseason knee procedure, and 29-year-old Tristan Thompson has been playing better lately, but he’s still averaging his lowest amount of points and rebounds in three years.
All in all, players 28 years or older have only accounted for just over a quarter of Boston’s points this season and only 30 percent of the team’s total minutes played.
In short, the Celtics are a really young team. That’s especially true on their bench, where they routinely have players 23 or younger come in for crucial minutes.
There’s a fine line between being too young and being too old in the NBA, but the Boston Celtics have been leaning too far in the direction of “too youthful” this season, especially among their main contributors. Yes, Tatum, Brown, and Smart are all young, but they do have quite a bit of postseason experience already in their developing careers.
Still, veteran leadership has been lacking this year, and unless that’s addressed via a trade or two, it could continue to bite the Celtics as the season goes along.
Not enough backcourt depth
Boston’s backcourt has taken hit after hit this season.
At the beginning, it was Kemba Walker missing the first month of the season. Now, it’s Marcus Smart missing the last 14 games due to injury. You’ve also had rookie Payton Pritchard miss games, and their most recent lottery pick Aaron Nesmith has been eased into the rotation after suffering a season-ending injury in college prior to declaring for the NBA draft.
Bringing in Jeff Teague this offseason was supposed to help bolster a backcourt that was anticipating time without Walker. That move has backfired, though, as Teague is shooting just 33.1 percent overall from the floor and is averaging a putrid 5.9 points and 2.1 assists.
There’s also the fact that aside from Jaylen Brown, the Boston Celtics don’t really have a shooting guard or small forward who can create his own shot consistently or who can make triples at a regular clip.
Semi Ojeleye isn’t going to wow anyone with his offense, and he’s built more like a forward than a guard. Javonte Green hasn’t lit the world on fire on offense either, and Grant Williams is more of a forward who can make shots from deep, but Brad Stevens prefers playing him at the four and very occasionally at the five.
There’s a lot of young, promising talent at guard for Boston on the roster. Carsen Edwards has flashed some intriguing scoring ability at times, the aforementioned Nesmith has seen his minutes increased lately, and Pritchard has, of course, been a pleasant surprise and a nice contributor off the bench.
Unfortunately, none of those players have been able to provide the kind of offense to alleviate the pressure off Tatum and Brown on a consistent basis.
The Boston Celtics have a bit of a logjam at power forward and center, so flipping one of those players for some more backcourt help would be ideal.
If that doesn’t happen, their issues on the perimeter likely won’t go away.