Boston Celtics: Pros and cons to offering Jayson Tatum max extension
By Josh Wilson
Celtics con to extending Jayson Tatum: Ceiling unknown
The big con — and really, you could twist this into another perspective and see it as a pro if you wanted to — is that Tatum’s ceiling is unknown at this point.
This year was a great, encouraging jump. I touched on his counting stats that have improved earlier in the article, but his advanced metrics shot up, too. His box plus/minus went from -0.2 last year to 3.9 this year. His value over replacement went from 1.1 to 3.0.
So, where does he go after making a leap across a canyon this year?
There is room to grow.
As mentioned previously, his shooting at the rim has taken a step back. After hitting 67.8 percent of his attempts within three feet last year he’s hitting 61.6 percent of his attempts in that range this year (46.8 percent on lay-ups this season, that number was close to 50 percent last year).
It’s possible his defense could get even better next year, too. He’s taken a big step in that regard, but for almost all NBA players there’s more that can be done on that end of the floor.
But beyond some of those smaller things, it’s hard to see him taking another huge leap in his career. He’s remarkably consistent at a high level for a third-year player, and with so many scoring weapons on the Celtics’ roster, it’s hard to see him getting many more shots over the next several seasons.
Is he close to his ceiling?
Look, it’s never easy to tell where a player’s ceiling is, especially right in the midst of such a big season, but Tatum could be close to his peak. That peak may sustain for several seasons, of course, but he may not go much higher than this over the course of his career. That’s a harsh possibility Danny Ainge and Boston need to face.
If that’s the case, are the Celtics okay with that? Is Tatum as he is worthy of max money?
I’d say yes, but the Cs need to weigh this con before they say yes officially. They’ll look silly if they pass up on the opportunity to keep Tatum around for a few years, and it’s likely going to take a max contract offer, but there is a very high potential for reward.