Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum has a real shot of making the All-NBA team — a closer look

Jayson Tatum has secured his spot in this years NBA All-Star game, but should he set his sights higher? Does the Boston Celtics stud have a case to secure an All-NBA Team spot in 2019-20?

Being named an All-Star reserve in this year’s annual showcase of the league’s best talents has given Boston Celtics wing Jayson Tatum a new confidence.

Since the players were revealed on January 30th, Tatum has been averaging 27.3PPG, 6.5RPG, and 3.5APG on shooting splits of 47.8/50/80.6. When you watch him play, he has looked more comfortable with the ball in his hands.

He’s more confident driving and finishing at the rim — now up to 47 percent shooting on drives for the year. That number was as low as 36 percent for the first month of the season. Since then, he’s shooting 50 percent on drives, according to NBA.com’s tracking stats.

Most importantly, for the last month he has looked like Boston’s best player, and it might be time to have that conversation.

On/Off numbers are usually pretty noisy, but they can tell an interesting story. Every main rotation player on the Celtics has a positive on court net rating, which usually is the case for really good teams.

Looking at the off court net rating, the Boston Celtics are still a good team with everyone off the court, except for one player. With Tatum not on the floor the Celtics are a -0.8.

While that may seem like nothing, the next closest player is Gordon Hayward at 5.4. Tatum also has the highest mark in efficiency differential at 12.6, the next highest Celtic who receives consistent minutes is Enes Kanter at 5.1.

One of the things that can invalidate this stuff is what type of lineups players get put in. A bad player could consistently be put with four really good players that mask his flaws. Or certain lineups might only be used against other teams lineups that the coach knows can’t exploit its weaknesses.

However, this isn’t the case with Tatum’s numbers. In fact, he is the consistent variable in eight of Boston’s nine most used lineups this year, all with a positive net rating too (except the one he’s not in that’s a -11.2).

The real kicker is out of the top 20 most used lineups the Boston Celtics use this season, only one features one starter with four bench players.

Carson Edwards, Brad Wanamaker, Semi Ojeleye, Kanter, and Tatum. They are a +11.3 in 32 minutes together.

This particular lineup doesn’t see the floor together anymore, but it should speak volumes that early on in the season Brad Stevens was comfortable letting Tatum keep things afloat with the bench.

Kemba Walker is still the team’s best offensive player most nights, but Tatum’s gotten more consistent on that end of the floor, as he’s becoming a more consistent scoring option.

The most impressive jump in his offensive game has been a massive shift in his efficiency in creating his own shot.

(***Side Note: Tatum also leads the team in points and shot attempts per game.***)

Tatum 2018-2019: As a pick and roll ball handler and in isolation per game. 

• PnR: Poss 2.4, Points Per Poss 0.91, 71st Percentile, 47.2 eFG%
• Iso: Poss 2.1, Points Per Poss 0.63, 17th Percentile, 33.8 eFG%

Tatum 2019-2020: As a pick and roll ball handler and in isolation per game.

• PnR: Poss 5.2, Points Per Poss 1.00, 86th Percentile, eFG% 52.4
• Iso: Poss 3.0, Points Per Poss 0.99, 73rd Percentile, eFG% 50

We saw just as recently as Sunday night vs the Oklahoma City Thunder how much better the young Boston Celtics wing has gotten at creating offense on his own against bad teams, as well as playoff locks.

Since January 11th, Tatum’s been averaging 26.6PPG, 6.7RPG, 3.3APG on splits of 50/47.3/77.6. If this offensive jump stays consistent the rest of the season, coupled with his All-Defensive ability, that makes for a strong argument.

The best player on a team projected to win 60 games? That sounds like an All-NBA player to me, but what does his competition look like?

It should be a given Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James will occupy the two forward slots on the first team All-NBA, as they are both firmly entrenched in the MVP race.

If I had to put money on it, I’d pencil in Kawhi Leonard for a second team slot even if he’s only on pace to play 55 games. He’s still in the conversation for best player in the league when he’s playing, is the best player on a likely top three seed in the Western Conference, and, simply put, is a better player than Tatum.

For the record, he made second team last year while also only playing 55 games.

The other forward spot on the second team will go to Anthony Davis. Davis has played 63 percent of his minutes at power forward this year after proclaiming that’s what position he prefers to play with the Lakers.

Even if something weird happens with the voting and Davis ends up a center, Jimmy Butler will get a forward spot before Tatum. In this exercise at least, Butler is the fifth forward to get selected, leaving only one spot in what will be a bloodbath between Tatum, Khris Middleton and Pascal Siakam.

Like Tatum, Siakam and Middleton have also shown some nice improvement to their games this season. Middleton has had a similar increase to Tatum in his proficiency running the pick and roll (he’s in the 90th percentile), and is an elite player off the ball; scoring 1.40 points per possession on spot ups, which is in the top two percent of the league.

Siakam’s defense has regressed a little bit due to taking on a larger offensive role, but offensively he has looked the part of a number one option, setting career highs in points, rebounds, and assists.

It’s a little difficult to compare the three of them due to the fact that Middleton is only playing 29.5 minutes per game while the other two are in the mid-thirties, but if you put them side by side measured by per 75 possessions, the numbers are scary close.

Per 75 Possessions:

1. Tatum: 23.7PPG, 7.3RPG, 3.1APG, 1.4SPG, 0.9BPG, 2.3TOV
2. Middleton: 23.7PPG, 7.0RPG, 4.8APG, 1.1SPG, 0.1BPG, 2.3TOV
3. Siakam: 24.3PPG, 7.7RPG, 3.5APG, 1.0SPG, 0.9BPG, 2.4TOV

Siakam has already missed 11 games in late December and early January, which could hurt his case if he misses too much more.

While Middleton is considered a number two option, he’s out performing most number ones regularly. The numbers would reflect that if Milwaukee wasn’t blowing everyone out and resting their starters in the fourth quarter.

The second best player with very few holes in his game on a team that might win 70 games is as strong an argument as it gets.

It’s only a five game sample size, with a 51 point performance, but Middleton’s numbers without Antetokounmpo  this season have been pretty darn good, as he’s averaging 29.8 points, 6.2 assists, 7.4 boards and 0.8 steals while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 51.4 percent from deep.

The path for Tatum to gain some separation is for him to continue his last month’s level of play for the rest of the season. Not only would that boost his numbers after the first month of the year dragged them down, but it would likely garner some national buzz.

Grabbing the second seed from Toronto would go a long way as well. Toronto currently sits 1.5 games ahead of Boston with about 30 games left to play.

Even if he doesn’t make it this year, going from the disaster that was 2018-19 for the Boston Celtics to being on the cusp of a top six forward in the league is quite the leap. It’ll only be a matter of time until he turns into an infallible figure of the All-NBA Team.