With trade speculations growing more aggressive as the NBA trade window looms, public pressures for the Boston Celtics to make a move are increasing. Is the last piece to their championship puzzle already sitting in front of them?
Coming into the season it was assumed that the Boston Celtics would suffer a significant drop off defensively with the departure of Al Horford and Aron Baynes. With more than 25% of the 2019-20 season in the books, that couldn’t have been further from the truth.
Boston’s defense has been thriving, and actually far better off than last year’s team.
The Celtics currently sit third in defensive rating behind only the Milwaukee Bucks and the Denver Nuggets, with an overall record of 17-5. Now being widely recognized as an improved product from last year, but still lacking that last piece to make them a true contender according to some.
That’s certainly not due to a lack of perimeter talent, an area you could argue Boston is leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else. People immediately point to the center position; stating the team needs a defensive stalwart, someone who can rumble around down low.
This has been the conversation with this team even before the season. It started with Steven Adams and Clint Capela and has sashayed its way to Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love.
There are various reasons to why these are unrealistic and unnecessary roster tweaks.
First, it’s virtually impossible for the Boston Celtics to aggregate the salaries to acquire one of these players; something that has already been discussed at nauseam.
Don’t get me wrong, Love is still a fantastic player even if his contract is a bit too pricey for my liking. However, he doesn’t fit what Brad Stevens has built on both ends, nor does he play the role that blends with all the wing talent. It’s understandable that big names like Love tend to draw a lot of eyes, but he is not the “solution” to the “problem.”
What Boston needs is a center who doesn’t take shots away from their best players, can play elite defense, all while doing the little things. Believe it or not, Daniel Theis is already that player.
According to cleaningtheglass, opponents are shooting only 54.6% at the rim when Theis is on the floor, placing in the 93rd percentile. The numbers become even better with Boston’s fully healthy starting lineup – albeit only 79 possessions – at 38.4%.
The defense overall is about eight points better with Theis on the hardwood.
When you compare that to Robert Williams (12 points worse) or Enes Kanter, whose defensive limitations need no introduction, it just goes to show Theis’ value on the defensive end.
Theis has always had this ability, that’s why Danny Ainge brought him in from overseas. A combination of serving as the third big in Boston’s rotation the past three seasons and a meniscus tear in 2018 that visibly zapped some of his athleticism as he recovered last year kept him under wraps.
Theis has been an integral part of a Boston defense that plays aggressive at the point of attack and is second in the league in turnover percentage, per cleaningtheglass.
It takes a great backline defender for this type of defense to not concede constant dribble penetration. Theis himself is averaging a career high block percentage of 7.1.
His presence and smart positioning inside has allowed guys like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart to fly around the perimeter and smother ball handlers without the constant fear of giving up layups. Theis is doing a lot of the little things that this team was lacking from last year, like so many great Celtics role players from the past were eager to embrace.
By the numbers, this is the guy people are saying the Boston Celtics need to get. In fact, Jacob Goldstein’s Defensive Player Impact Plus Minus (D-PIPM) places Theis at number two league wide with a D-PIPM of 3.44. Behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The realm of advanced metrics can be a little tricky, especially for those that don’t quite understand them or have never read about them. You can read all about Player Impact Plus Minus here.
If you don’t buy Theis as that impactful of a defender, just look at some of the names around him: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Rudy Gobert, Kawhi Leonard, Joel Embiid, and many more upper echelon defensive players.
Combining what the data says with what is happening on the court presents a pretty strong argument in Theis’ favor. The argument against going forward with Theis and not trading for a “beefier” center is claiming he can’t deal with the likes of Embiid and low post behemoths of that caliber.
That may have some merit to it, but it’s a bit unfair to Embiid to suggest there’s anyone who can stop him one on one; although Horford and Baynes did about as well as anyone could during their tenure in Boston.
Outside of those two, and Marc Gasol, I have yet to see anyone not get shredded by that dude. Is it worth compromising part of a roster that’s on pace to win 60 games to get a different guy that Embiid will put on a poster?
Not really.
Especially the way the Boston Celtics operate with their crazy switches and aggressive double teams. Theis already has three years of experience under Stevens’ defensive system.
He may not have the flashiest name or flashiest game, but Daniel Theis is here to do the dirty work like so many Celtics that have come before him.