The Boston Celtics must keep the Grizzlies’ 2020 first round draft pick — here’s why

With the Boston Celtics treasure trove of assets starting to run dry, it’s important they extract the most value from Memphis’ 2020 first round draft pick over the next two seasons.

After the infamous trade the Boston Celtics executed with the Brooklyn Nets in the summer of 2013, the course of action Beantown should have taken with the seemingly endless supply of assets has varied depending on who you ask.

Rumors of near trades to acquire Paul George, Jimmy Butler or Anthony Davis have many saying the Celtics mismanaged their window to trade their way to a dynasty. They did pull the trigger on a deal to bring in Kyrie Irving — as much as Celtics fans would like to forget — but for the most part have stayed conservative with their assets.

Instead, opting to make smart offseason signings to bring in needle movers like Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and, most recently, Kemba Walker, all while attempting to hit on future stars through the draft by selecting Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.

With a league leading record of 8-1 after a summer where many weren’t sure what to make of this Boston Celtics squad, chants are echoing for the C’s to use their remaining assets to trade for the player that puts them over the top — specifically a big man.

One of the main issues with that line of thinking is “that player” won’t be easily acquired. To less complicate things, I’ll use Tristan Thompson as an example; someone who, under different circumstances, would be an ideal trade target.

Thompson makes $18.5M this upcoming season with the Cleveland Cavaliers, a pretty significant chunk of change. The Boston Celtics hard capped themselves by signing and trading for Walker, meaning they basically can’t take on any extra salary in a trade; at the very least there are slim margins.

All of the Celtics’ big salary that could be used to match a contract like Thompson’s belong to Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Hayward and Walker. It would be unwise to include any of those players in a trade that isn’t netting an A-list star in return. Thompson is a good player, be he certainly is no A-lister.

That makes things very difficult from a salary matching standpoint, let alone sending out an enticing enough package to make it worthwhile for other teams.

The last blue chip asset Boston has is the Memphis Grizzlies’ first round pick that is top-six protected in the 2020 NBA draft, and will roll over to an unprotected pick in 2021 if it is not conveyed this year.

Memphis is currently sitting at 3-7, and are in a multi-team tie for the sixth worst record in the NBA.

It’s only a ten game sample size, but Memphis does not project to be very good this year; especially trapped at the bottom of the Western Conference.

According to cleaningtheglass, they are in the bottom six in offensive rating , defensive rating, free throw rate and generating turnovers. Not to mention an efficiency differential of -7.8 (third worst.) Their “expected wins – 82” in sitting at 21.8.

** Expected win – 82: “How many games in an 82 game season would we normally expect a team with this efficiency differential to win?” **

Essentially, the early season readings are this team is going to be bad despite blossoming with tons of young talent.

It’s likely that the pick will rollover to 2021.

There is a chance that some, or all of Memphis’ young players take a leap next year and the pick doesn’t reach peak value. However, I find it hard to believe it won’t still hold top ten value.

Would a top ten pick, plus some combination of a big and young players be enough to net a Thompson level big in his contract year? Absolutely.

In all honestly, I think the Cavaliers would jump at the chance to get just the pick alone, but you have to make the money work.

To that I ask, is it worth it?

Is it worth it to sacrifice a chance to add a really good young player that is COST CONTROLLED as well as some depth on an already not that deep team? Think about it.

A package of Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis, Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards only gets you to $14.3M. That’s not enough for Thompson,  and what big can you get for that much that can replace the production those four will bring throughout the season?

Good luck finding that player.

After all the brouhaha about Danny Ainge not pulling the trigger on a deal, the best course of action, ironically enough, is to keep the pick.

Unless a star shakes loose like Karl-Anthony Towns (NO HE’S NOT AVAILABLE) keeping the pick is the right move, and this is why.

Not to re-hash the sample size thing, but after only 10 games in the season, Boston has the best record. The four headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Hayward and Walker is giving everyone else fits; those four are outscoring opponents by 23.8 points, according to basketball-reference.

Maybe these four can bring in a championship, or at least put you in the best position to win one. Obviously, that means you have to keep them together for a couple years if you want multiple bites at the apple.

Hayward has a player option after this year, and based on how he started the year before his hand injury, he’d be a fool to not opt out for a longer term deal.

At the same time, Brown’s new $115 million deal kicks into effect and Tatum will be on the last year of his deal; a likely candidate for a max contract.

If Boston somehow finds a way to keep all four of those guys around, all that will be left to fill out the roster are basically mid-level exception type deals. Or, if you just so happen to have a top ten draft pick that you can have under contract on a rookie salary for four years.

Based on Boston’s recent track record with top ten picks (Smart, Brown and Tatum,) you have to feel pretty confident that the right player is out there. While the depth might seem shaky, adding a top ten pick could go a long way in turning the tides.

In regards to how the team can survive this year without “that big man”, are we sure the Boston Celtics even need that? In just 22 minutes in the game vs Dallas, Daniel Theis was a +27.

Robert Williams has the sixth highest point differential on the roster with +2.6, according to cleaningtheglass. Enes Kanter has barely played this season and the team has looked great.

The team itself is the fifth best at defending shots at the rim, and aren’t getting too abused on the glass.

I understand most of the concern comes from being in the same conference as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, but those guys turn everyone into swiss cheese too. Why should Boston make a panic move?

Just ride the wave and see where it crashes. Maybe the Boston Celtics do need that big after all and lose in the second round this spring — who cares? The offseason is there to make roster tweaks like that, and there were no expectations this season anyway.

We’ll have the answers soon enough. For now, just enjoy the ride!