What to Make of Boston’s Center Rotation

As the Boston Celtics look to bounce back after a disappointing season, there are still too many questions surrounding the center position, and who will fill the void left by Al Horford and Aron Baynes.

The Boston Celtics have already promised 14 players a guaranteed contract to start the 2019-2020 NBA season. Currently, second-round pick Carsen Edwards is the favorite to get the last roster spot.

With a new team full of high character guys and a chance to grow together while forming a brand new culture, the Celtics should be a fun watch no matter what team you’re a fan of. Even with a filled out depth chart, the center position will be the source of many questions as we wait for October to arrive.

Enes Kanter, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams and Vincent Poirier will likely make up the center-by-committee role after losing both Al Horford and Aron Baynes. Who will start? Who will finish? Which guy will get the most minutes? There are so many questions that cannot be answered until at least the conclusion of training camp in September.

All four players each specialize in different areas and will likely be deployed as such.

Enes Kanter

Kanter has had an interesting NBA experience. The offensively gifted big man has bounced around a few teams leaving his mark as a goofball, pot-stirrer, and a force down low at each stop. Some of his most noteworthy moments are Kanter loosening his Twitter fingers on social media or standing up to LeBron James.

His best on-court skills are his ability to dominate down low in both scoring and rebounding. Kanter was 11th in box-outs and tenth in contested rebounds in 2018-2019. Offensively, he placed third in the NBA in points percentage on post-ups of players who averaged at least 6 post-ups per game.

While he’s never been an amazing passer, he’s more than capable of letting an offense flow through him for small stretches during a game.

Kanter will give Boston a solid Horford replacement on the offensive end, but will also bring elite rebounding. The issue with Kanter is that he’s always been one of the worst defensive players in all of basketball.

Playing hard through a shoulder injury in this past postseason was inspiring, but during the regular season Kanter will, at times, be unplayable.

During his time with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Kanter became synonyms with a revolving door on defense, allowing opposing ball handlers a super highway to the basket while head coach Billy Donovan uttered from the bench, “we can’t play him.”

It should be noted that Kanter had some decent moments in the playoffs while with the Portland Trailblazers. Ironically, his old team couldn’t do enough to get him off the court, as Kanter helped dominate the Thunder in five games.

Kanter averaged a double-double of 13 points and 10 rebounds per game against in five games against OKC.

During the regular season, Kanter had the worst defensive field goal percentage of all centers that played at least 60 games with a percentage points differential of 4.0. In the playoffs, he did a complete 180 by holding opponents to almost eight percent under their shooting averages.

If Kanter can manufacture that same type of effort when Boston needs him the most, that could be the difference between winning and losing some games in the regular season, or tip the scales in their favor during a playoff series.

Daniel Theis

It was unclear in many NBA circles whether Theis would remain in the NBA or return overseas after being apart of one of the most volatile seasons in recent history. In the end, he elected to re-sign with the Celtics for two more seasons; adding much-needed depth to Boston’s front-court.

Theis was initially sought after due to his defensive capabilities and three-point touch. He won a defensive player of the year award while playing in Germany and was capable of guarding multiple positions during his rookie year. He averaged two blocks per 40 minutes during his last three seasons overseas.

Unfortunately, a torn meniscus prevented him from playing in the 2018 playoffs, and since then seems to have had some of his athleticism zapped. Theis doesn’t look as mobile defending outside the paint, can’t challenge shots the way he used to, and cannot guard Joel Embiid.

During Boston’s four regular-season matchups with the Sixers, Embiid shot 6-9 and made 13 free throws while guarded by Theis, according to NBA.com’s matchup data.

It may seem like a silly standard to hold someone to, but with Horford and Baynes out of the fold, Boston may not have a lot of solutions for players of Embiid’s caliber that they once had the remedy for.

Even with a possible athletic decline, Theis can still be useful. He usually has excellent defensive positioning when he’s not committing a foul, and can shoot the three most effectively out of the other three centers on the roster.

Theis’ perimeter touch and veteran savvy will make him Boston’s best screen and roll defender, a blend of skills that will be needed if and when Kanter gets played off the floor.

It’s unlikely that Theis is in the mix for the starting spot, but a vast array of skills should allow you to pencil him in as the primary backup.

Robert Williams

Williams is the boom or bust candidate of Boston’s bigs. While he doesn’t need to hit the ground running per se as there is still plenty of depth around him, but Williams skill-set is perfect for this team if he can put it all together in year two.

During his rookie year, Williams showed some incredible shot-blocking potential. Even while averaging a mere nine minutes per game, Williams still managed to post over a block per game in the time awarded to him.

That number skyrockets to seven per 100 possessions, a mark significantly higher than the multi-time defensive player of the year, Rudy Gobert. Gobert serves as the main cog in a Utah Jazz defense that is a regular top-three finish year in and year out. If Williams can turn into even a fraction of the defender Gobert is, Boston will maintain it’s elite defensive status.

There’s more to defense than just blocking shots, however, and oftentimes in his first year, Williams looked lost trying to figure out where he needed to be.

Knowing where to be and when to be there is a necessity to play great fundamental team defense. It’s nice to have the ability to challenge every shot, but once opposing teams know you’re ready to jump for the block, they’re gonna put you in position to hurt your team.

This was Williams’ biggest flaw, as his botched attempts to send shots sailing into the fifth row would put his teammates into rotation; either giving up a layup or open three.

Williams has the athleticism and physique to be a premier defensive player in the league. A player that the Celtics desperately need in the current state of the roster. It would be a seamless fit into the starting lineup with Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Gordon Hayward.

Williams is an excellent lob threat on the offensive end, and his physical tools will allow him to clean up misses with ease. Defensively, it would enable Williams’ teammates to be more aggressive on the perimeter knowing they have a defensive force behind them should they make a mistake.

This type of drastic jump is unrealistic but would be the ideal scenario for the Celtics moving forward. Expect Williams to be given a little more responsibility, and the chance at promotion should he be able to do what is asked of him.

Vincent Poirier

Not too much is known about this international man of mystery. Based on highlights and reading breakdowns, Poirier seems like a mixture of Theis and Baynes. His athleticism is comparable to Theis pre-meniscus tear, and is a large enough man to be considered a more mobile Baynes, but not quite as strong.

Poirier could be one Boston’s best roll man on offense and is a tremendous rebounder and defender. Poirier was number one in rebounds per game, total rebounds, and offensive rebounds last season while playing in the EuroLeague.

Finding himself on a team that’s been notorious for poor rebounding in the past, Poirer should be able to earn minutes against bigger teams due to him standing at seven-foot-one. If he can adjust quickly to the style and speed of the NBA game, Poirier could be the solution to guarding the Embiid’s of the world.

It’s safe to assume Kanter will net the starting gig heading into the start of the season, albeit an emergence out of Williams in training camp. We know what Theis can do, and it’s unlikely Poirier will already be acclimated to the NBA game.

I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a mid-season trade to acquire a more steadying presence down low. Should the Celtics find themselves one piece away in a year that’s wide open, Danny Ainge won’t hesitate to make the right moves to put this team back in contention.

A trade partner commonly linked to the Celtics is the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers will have big decisions coming up trying to pay Domantas Sabonis while already paying Myles Turner a multi-year deal paying close to $18 million annually.

With Brown due for a payday from the Celtics next summer, it would be interesting to see if both teams want to allocate their resources better and free up their respective “logjams.”

Whatever the roster looks like by the time the playoffs roll around, how far Boston can go will hinge a lot on what kind of contributions come from the center position.