The Boston Celtics handed the Bucks a 22-point loss during game one. It seemed Giannis Antetokounmpo had no answer for the swarming Celtics defense, and the Boston offense was red-hot. If the Bucks want to avoid going into Boston down 0-2, they will have to change things up quickly.
“A Bucks sweep is more likely than a Celtics series win” tweeted FS1 analyst Nick Wright before the Celtics went on to put a whopping on the Milwaukee after game one. Not only Wright say the Celtics would lose in five, he also said game five would be Kyrie Irving’s last game as a Celtic.
Said this on @FTFonFS1 on Thursday but can’t find the clip, so here it is for posterity:
— nick wright (@getnickwright) April 28, 2019
A Bucks sweep is more likely than a Celtics series win.
Bucks in 5 is my pick. Games 1 & 2 to MIL, Game 3 to Boston, Games 4 & 5 to MIL, with Game 5 being Kyrie’s last as a Celtic.
During game one, the gameplan was simple. Stop Antetokounmpo from driving the lane and let the Bucks rely on everyone else to score. While much easier said than done, Boston found two ways to do this: Get all five guys back on defense, and put Al Horford on Antetokounmpo with help coming from both sides when he drives. The game plan was based off of stopping Antetokounmpo, and in game one he was at least contained.
“The Greek Freak” ultimately finished 7-21 from the field, with eight rebounds and two assists. Only eight of Antetokounmpo’s 22 points came in paint, where he usually thrives in. Between Horford’s smothering defense and the Boston guards crashing in, Antetokounmpo was left struggling.
The video below shows how the Celtics were able to completely lock down Antetokounmpo by doubling him and using Horford.
Breaking down the first play of the video. Although this is off a Celtics missed shot you see all five Boston players cross half-court before Antetokounmpo. When he does cross half-court, both Al Horford, and Jaylen Brown (Boston’s most athletic player on the court) step up on Antetokounmpo. Although this is a clear travel that doesn’t get called, Antetokounmpo is forced to use a spin move and throw up a wild shot that is easily blocked by Horford.
The second possession shows FOUR Celtics in the paint when Antetokounmpo tries to drive the lane. Horford strips the ball, as Antetokounmpo is too focused on Marcus Morris and the Celtics run in transition.
Finally, the third play which is my favorite. Antetokounmpo gets what he believes to be a one-on-one isolation with Horford. He drives to the right and Horford follows. Notice again Morris creeping in, forcing Giannis to use a euro-step to try and dunk on Horford. The only issue is Jayson Tatum is in perfect position on the other side to get a hand on the attempt. Once Antetokounmpo gets it back, Horford jumps right up with him to reject the shot.
Lebron James is someone who gets a similar comparison to Antetokounmpo in regards to being too fast, too strong, too big. So the question remains, with “The Greek Freak” being bigger and faster than James, how is he considered a rising star when some consider James possibly the greatest ever? Well, passing and shooting is the answer.
This clip (although length) answers one of those questions. The same game-plan is used for James. The difference is he is an excellent passer.
It’s quite basic math to know if a player gets double teamed, someone else will be open. Antetokounmpo clearly did not see that in game one as he only had two assists. Watching the game film on him, when he drives to the basket, Antetokounmpo puts his head down and goes to the hoop. This makes it much easier to guard him rather than James.
The other difference is shooting. While James has never been a marksmen from three, he certainly shoots better than Antetokounmpo who only shot 25% in the regular season from downtown. Antetokounmpo did shoot 3-5 from three in game one, but he does not like to shoot it often and will not unless there is no other shot. The Celtics will look for a similar game-plan in game two.
So if Boston found the key to beating the Bucks, is there any chance for Milwaukee to win if the Celtics continue to execute? The answer is yes. One stat from game one that sticks out that does not favor the Celtics is offensive rebounds. They had only three offensive rebounds the entire game. Second chance points will be extremely hard to come by in this series as the Celtics will need every man on the court running back to stop Antetokounmpo.
Boston shot 54% from the field in game one including 41% from three, leaving not much need for offensive rebounding. If they continue to shoot this well, it the lack of second chances will not be an issue. However, if Boston starts to get cold, they will be forced to either take their chances with Antetokounmpo and crash the glass or hope they one shot per possession will be enough.
At the beginning of this series, I had it going five or six favoring the Celtics. After game one, if anything it made me even more confident in my pick. The Bucks still have a chance, but the Celtics will look good.
PSA- Don’t freak out of the Celtics lose tonight no matter the score. This is the game I have them losing, and after winning five straight playoff games they’re due for a loss. Everything will be OKAY.