Marcus Smart: The Celtics Next Superstar

It hurts to lose Avery Bradley. I mean, it hurts a lot.

Bradley gave the Celtics toughness, scoring and of course, defense. This seems like it would be a sizable gap for Boston to fill, but it may not be that way. Actually, I think it’s possible that the Celtics actually upgrade that position.

Marcus Smart is the man who’s ready to take the reins. Even more than that, I believe he’s going to be the missing piece to the Celtics future “Big 3.” After the days of Gordon Hayward, Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas are long and over with, I picture a C’s team lead by Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart. As a matter of fact, it’s very possible that Smart actually breaks out sooner rather than later and there’s evidence to support it.

First let’s look into the FiveThirtyEight database. The website uses a uses a formula known as the CARMELO (Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization) system in order to project the future of NBA players. FiveThirtyEight specifically defines it as the following:

"The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player."

So basically, it’s how much a player contributes to his team’s success on both sides of the court compared to an average player. Based on the website’s analysis, Smart projects to be a future All Star. They calculate that over the next 7 years he will post an average +/- of +1.4. On top of that, the FiveThirtyEight estimates he will average roughly 4 wins above replacement.

As of now, the Celtics could lock up Smart long term on a deal similar to Avery Bradley’s. According to FiveThirtyEight, this would be a HUGE bargain. They evaluate his worth over five years to be at $128.8 million. Yeah, I said that right. $128.8 million.

If this all bodes to be true, the Celtics may have a bargain superstar in their mitts. The other bit of evidence regarding Smart’s future lies with a player Boston once coveted. That player is Jimmy Butler.

In his first season, Butler barely played. The Bulls decided to use him in sparing time and allow him to grow as a player. Smart on the other hand was forced into a contributing role with no real leadership position. Both players made their reputations off of their defensive play. Smart was an immediate plug and play defender tasked with the opposing teams best ball handler when Bradley was out. Butler on the other hand had his defensive ability on full display when he played LeBron James’ Miami Heat. In that series, Butler was a pest to LeBron and continued upon that into next year’s series.

Their first season’s saw Smart average 7.8 points per game, 3.1 assists per game, and 3.3 rebounds per game to Butler’s 2.6 points, 0.3 assists, and 1.3 rebounds. These seem different, but their per 36 minute stats are crazy similar that season.

"PER 36 Minute StatsMarcus Smart – 10.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.4 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 37 FG% Jimmy Butler – 10.9 PPG, 1.4 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 40 FG%"

Actually over the next 2 years, the two players continue to have almost identical 36 minute stats.

The most interesting part of this is when Butler made his jump into star status. This occurred in his fourth year when his scoring output went from 13.1 to 20, his shooting went from 39% to 46% and his 3 point shooting improved from 28% to 37%.

This is an obvious result of his increased playing time during that season. With the increased in minutes Smart will seemingly absorb one could see the overwhelming case that he too could break out.

Next: Aron Baynes Could Fill Starting Center Role for Celtics

As I said before, it really hurts to lose Bradley, but I truly believe Smart is a superstar in waiting. Stevens just needs to give him a chance.