Hardwood Houdini Pro Comparisons
Lonzo Ball has made a ton of noise this season thanks to a terrific season with the Bruins of UCLA. He averaged around 14 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists. Ball broke the freshman assist record, passing the likes of Gary Payton. Ball was the reason that the Bruins were one of the best offenses in the country this season, and there is a lot of hype surrounding him as a pro prospect.
Ball has a lot of talent as a basketball player. He’s a good athlete that, for now, can shoot the three and score at the rim. However, his intangible ability to make everyone around him better is what will help him have a long, productive NBA career.
There will be two comparisons made on Ball here. One will be a best case scenario, where everything falls into place and the player’s full potential is reached. Also, there will be a more realistic comparison where the player doesn’t improve that much from where he is now. Ball’s career will most likely fall in the middle of these two comparisons.
Best Case Scenario: Jason Kidd
This is the popular comparison for Ball, and it is completely justified. Like Ball, Kidd had a supreme ability to share the ball and make his teammates better on the floor. He also had a knack for making winning plays, like Ball has done in his lone year in college. Kidd was not as good a shooter as Ball is right away, but he developed a very reliable three point stroke over time. Ball’s shooting mechanics worry me, so there is a chance that he’ll face his fair share of challenges from long range at some point in his first couple of years as a pro.
What Ball has in quickness and shooting ability, Kidd makes up for in physicality and defense. Kidd was NBA All-Defense nine times in his career. Ball is not a good defender, as UCLA frequently hides him in zones, or on inferior opponents. Ball has the tools to become an elite defender, but he’ll have to add muscle to his frame, as Kidd weighed about 15 pounds more.
If all goes well for Ball, he will be able to live up to this lofty comparison. However, if his shooting mechanics cause problems, which I expect them to, and he doesn’t add weight to improve his defense, Ball will be closer to the next comparison.
Realistic Comparison: Ricky Rubio
Rubio and Ball share similar qualities as distributors. Rubio is as trustworthy as it gets to run an NBA offense. Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau has given him the majority of the lead point guard minutes over fifth overall pick Kris Dunn because of his smart playmaking abilities.
Like Ball, Rubio had sky-high potential coming into the NBA due to his playmaking skills. It’s difficult for young guards to develop into good distributors, so having that trait early on can really help a player’s development. Rubio had issues with making jump shots, and his full potential has not been reached yet. There’s still time for Rubio, but in today’s NBA, you have to be able to make jump shots.
If Ball’s mechanics limit his shooting potential, he’ll have problems scoring with such a slim frame and perimeter scoring style. This will limit him to what Rubio has been for most of his career. A reliable playmaker who could start for a bad team, but come off the bench for a contender. Teams don’t spend top five selections on that type of player. Oh wait, yes they do. Minnesota did that nine years ago with Rubio, and they still haven’t made the playoffs.
Next: Celtics Second Round Targets
Ball will be a top five pick in this year’s draft barring a meltdown under his dad’s pressure, or a serious injury. There will be a lot of expectations surrounding this young player, and he could go one of two ways depending on that sideways jumper. His playmaking will keep him in the league for a long time, but the shooting is what will make him a superstar. Only time will tell.