Solving the Boston Celtics Rebounding Problem: Three Trade Targets
By Greg Cassoli
The Boston Celtics haven’t played many games as a complete outfit. They’ve been missing several key pieces for varying degrees of time, and have only had the full roster together for two game. That leaves a lot to be desired from an evaluation perspective, and drawing any firm conclusions with such a small sample size is inadvisable. Still, individual players have had enough time to show signs of the roles they might fill and the level of production they might provide, and there is one weakness on the team that seems to be relatively glaring- defensive rebounding.
Boston knew that cleaning up the defensive glass might be an issue coming into the year. Brad Stevens has stressed the importance of rebounding as a unit, and players have taken it to heart. None more so than Avery Bradley, who has somewhat inexplicably become the team’s leading rebounder. That’s indicative of a level of commitment to the all-in philosophy Stevens has espoused, but ultimately having a 6’2” shooting guard as your leading rebounder is not a great sign, and buy-in to the team mentality has not translated to success.
The Celtics rank twenty-ninth in the league in defensive rebounding rate, and are consistently watching their defense get submarined by second chance points. It’s a major problem, and it’s one that starts and ends with the team’s big men. Boston can put their full faith in a team-oriented approach, but if the players that are best-positioned to grab boards aren’t capable of doing so, it doesn’t really matter. Only one Celtics big averages more than five rebounds per game. That player, Al Horford, manages a fairly tepid 6.8 per game, a mark that is good for second best on the team.
Perhaps things will improve now that Boston’s roster is healthy. Horford and Jae Crowder have recently returned, and the former’s competence and the latter’s intensity could go a long way. Assuming that either will make the Celtics a good defensive rebounding team, however, is likely a bit of wishful thinking. The natural question then becomes is there anyone that would. The answer is yes, but that kind of player isn’t on Boston’s roster currently, and adding him to it is a complex process with a several levels of variables to consider.
We’re not talking about bringing in a superstar like DeMarcus Cousins, although he would solve almost all of the team’s problems if they could add him without giving up too much, but rather a rebounding specialist of sorts. Someone that the Celtics could grab with a combination of second or third-tier assets, and not any of their most prized possessions. Trevor Booker, for example, is a perfect model for what the team could use.
Booker is a high-energy big, whose 10.9 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes is a full three rebounds better than any Celtic’s big outside of the little used Jordan Mickey. He has enough quickness to fit into any type of switchy defensive approach Boston might choose to implement, and he’s on a relatively reasonable contract through the 2017-2018 season. The issue is that the Celtics really need someone on an unreasonably favorable deal if it is going to extend across multiple seasons.
Boston has expressed an interest in opening up max-level cap space this summer. It is the primary reason they chose not to extend Kelly Olynyk, and they may not even have enough to reach the full max without his cap hold on the books. Cutting into that space is only palatable if it is going to take Boston into real contention for a championship. As much as he might help, Booker isn’t doing that, and as such players of his caliber and pay-grade are not realistic trade targets.
There may be an argument to be made for rolling the dice with a player whose contract expires in 2018 and going after a star with the cap space that frees up then, but there is some really danger there, as it represents the year in which both Bradley and Isaiah Thomas’ contracts expire, adding a significant degree of difficulty to the type of salary cap management the team would need to conduct in order to keep everyone on board.
All that to say that adding a player to help solve the Celtics’ woes on the defensive glass and maintaining the team’s cap space entering next summer is no small task. Finding the right player means identifying the right mix of talent and salary, not to mention a team that would find an offer from Boston intriguing enough to part ways with that player. There aren’t a ton of options, but don’t worry, we’ve pulled together a list of three targets. Actually acquiring these players may be a long-shot, but that uncertainty is part of the point of this process- to point out how difficult satisfying immediate needs while maintaining flexibility for the future can be. Let’s take a look.
1- Alex Len– Phoenix Suns: 1-year/ $4.8Million
The Suns opted not to extend Len this summer, and have a glut of young big men looking to get time. His likelihood of remaining with the team beyond this year seems low, and while he’s been a frustratingly inconsistent player over the first three years of his career, Len is an effective rebounder. To date he has posted the fifteenth best total rebound rate in basketball, and ranks an even more impressive ninth in defensive rebound rate.
Unless Len were interested in taking something close to the minimum this summer, an almost unfathomable idea, his time in Boston would likely be limited exclusively to this season. If the Celtics could convince Phoenix to swap out his salary with Olynyk’s by greasing the skids with one or two of their millions of second round picks, however, it would seem that one year of Len would be more valuable than one of Olynyk, given the team’s current needs.
2- Kris Humphries– 1-year/ $4 Million
Kris Humphries has been many things in the NBA, not all of them good, but one relative constant has been an ability to hit the glass. Despite his slightly increased age, Humphries’ defensive rebound rate of 22.6 percent sits just below his career average of 24.3, both of which are better than the Celtics entire roster. His 7.7 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes would also instantly become the best on the team.
The offer here would be Olynyk again. The Hawks have expressed an interest in the Celtics big before, and are generally intrigued by shooting. For Atlanta, an Olynyk-Humphries swap seems something of a no-brainer. For Boston, it would simply be an attempt to fill a need by trading out a player they seem to be willing to let go.
3- Richaun Holmes– Philadelphia 76ers: 3-year/$3.1M
The fit here is a little less clear, and finding a workable deal may also pose a challenge, but I wanted to include at least one player on a deal that doesn’t expire this offseason. Holmes hasn’t seen enough playing time to make a call on his long-term ceiling, but his numbers in limited action are intriguing, and his contract is perfect for a team that is hoping to maintain cap space moving forward.
Holmes is averaging 10.3 rebounds per 36 minutes, grabbing 22.3 percent of those available to him. The Sixers have cap space, so they could absorb some contract if needed, and they certainly have more big men than they know what to do with. That problem will only get worse once Ben Simmons returns from injury. It’s not clear that Boston has anything Philidelphia wants, but that doesn’t mean kicking the tires on Holmes isn’t worth it. He’s got potential, and the Sixers can’t start exclusively power forwards and centers.
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Ultimately, the likelihood of any of these deals coming to fruition is low. Just compiling this list was a challenge. Putting together an actual transaction is a significantly more complicated process. The Celtics need to do something to solve their rebounding deficiencies, though, and players like those highlighted above could help.