NBA Preseason Is Not Worth Getting Excited Over
By Derek Mcvay
While the games are fun to watch, it’s useless to put a lot of stock into performances during the NBA preseason.
It’s great that the NBA preseason is here. Not only do we finally get the chance to watch professional basketball again, but it also means the regular season is right around the corner. That’s especially exciting for the Boston Celtics, a team with very high expectations this season.
Yes, it’s been fun to watch how well Al Horford is fitting in with his new teammates. It’s great to see some of the things he will add to this team. The preseason gives newcomers like Horford, Gerald Green and Jaylen Brown an opportunity to assimilate into their new team. Some of the individual performances are exciting, but I would temper your expectations.
Preseason success doesn’t always translate to the regular season.
Take a guy like Terry Rozier, who is expected to have an expanded role this year. There’s a bit of hype surrounding Rozier this year because of his performance towards the tail end of last season, as well as in the summer league. Through the first few preseason games, he has looked like a guy ready to live up to that hype.
Rozier is shooting better than 50 percent from the field, including 60 percent from three-point range. He’s looked excellent. Like a point guard should, Rozier has looked comfortable attacking the basket and controlling the offense. However, his numbers through the first few preseason games last season were almost identical, shooting 60 percent from three, and better than 50 percent from the field. Yet, he failed to get significant minutes until March.
The opposite is true as well. Preseason struggles don’t always spill over to the regular season.
Take a look at Jared Sullinger during last preseason. Questions about Sullinger’s weight and conditioning surrounded him at the start of the year. Those issues overshadowed his production during his first three years with Boston. It was the final year of his contract, and do-or-die time for Sullinger.
The preseason didn’t look promising. Sullinger struggled to earn minutes, and struggled to produce when he was given minutes. He averaged just under 16 minutes per game, and shot less than 40 percent. Based on Stevens’ rotations, it looked like Sullinger sat towards the bottom of the depth chart.
Then the games started counting, and Sullinger had arguably his best season as a pro. He led the Celtics in rebounding, was second in Player Efficiency Rating and most importantly, missed just one game all season.
The simple fact is, things are different when the games matter. It’s much easier for players to perform well in the preseason because they can play more freely. The situations are low-stress, the intensity isn’t as high and the arenas are half-empty.
At the same time, it’s difficult for seasoned veterans to treat these games with the same intensity they would a regular season game — unless you’re Marcus Smart. Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley; all of these guys are averaging 10 minutes less than what they will likely average in the regular season.
I’m not telling you the preseason is completely useless. It can have real value, especially for younger players, and guys competing for roster spots. It’s just not an indicator of success.
Next: Preseason Priority: Second Unit Chemistry
Don’t get too high or low on a player during the preseason, because we’ve seen in the past that it doesn’t always carry over.