Here’s why the Celtics should pass on Jaylen Brown with the third pick.
Following California small forward Jaylen Brown‘s second pre-draft workout with the Boston Celtics this past weekend, rumors are emerging from the team’s camp that the 19-year-old is on the short list of players who could be selected with the third overall pick on Thursday night.
While Brown is undoubtedly the most intelligent and thoughtful prospect we have seen to date off of the floor, the captain of his high school chess team, an acoustic guitar czar, and a fluent Spanish-speaker, his deficiencies where the Celtics need his contributions most pose red flags for the team in selecting him.
First off, Boston needs a guard with shooting prowess if they wish to reach the next level, and Brown simply does not offer that ability. Although he reportedly shot the ball well in his workouts with the Celtics, Brown converted at just a 29.4% clip from behind the arc with the Golden Bears last season.
Overall from the perimeter, Brown shot just 31% on the year, showcasing the unreliability and inconsistency of his jump shot as he consistently altered his release point, faded away unnecessarily on shot attempts, and showcased poor rotation on the ball.
Standing 6’7″ and weighing 223 pounds with a seven-foot wingspan, the enticing idea of having Brown’s athleticism on the parquet floor is undeniable. Furthermore, he has displayed an intense desire to improve on the defensive side of the ball while sporting a heightened work ethic.
Brown is notorious with his trainers for scheduling his personal workouts before 7:00 a.m. in an effort to channel Kobe Bryant, someone that he looks to model his mindset after, while harping on defensive tactics in his workouts in addition to improving on his offensive arsenal.
However, the holes in that arsenal are what should make Celtics general manager Danny Ainge balk before selecting Brown third overall on Thursday night.
Among the 173 collegiate players who received at least 17 scoring opportunities per game, Brown ranked just 149th in the nation, scoring just .853 points per possession on 17.2 chances per contest, via Synergy Sports Technology. In addition, while Brown did showcase his athleticism on the fast break at times at Cal, he struggled at times with poor ball-handling and decision making while racking up 3.1 turnovers to just 2.0 assists per game last season.
When checking the metrics, Brown falls short as well. In Kevin Pelton’s statistically-driven draft projection model, the Georgia native ranks just 39th among all draft prospects, standing a harrowing 101st in wins above replacement player with an underwhelming -0.5 mark. To put this figure in perspective, only two players with a negative WARP statistic have been selected in the top ten of the draft in the last 10 years.
Who are these two players? The eighth pick of the 2008 draft, forward Joe Alexander’s career with the Milwaukee Bucks lasted all of 67 games before his career took him on an all-expenses paid overseas tour. Austin Rivers, the 10th selection in 2012, has posted just 7.4 points per game in four seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers.
Next: 76ers Most Likely Trade Partner For Boston Celtics
Overall, should Ainge hold on to the selection, barring the completion of a rumored swap for Jimmy Butler of the Chicago Bulls or Jahlil Okafor of the Philadelphia 76ers, he would be best suited selecting a proven scorer in Jamal Murray of Kentucky or a legitimate floor general in Kris Dunn of Providence rather than a project such as Brown, as forward-thinking as the Berkeley student might be.