Where Does Jonas Jerebko Fit In Celtics Rotation?

Power forward Jonas Jerebko showcased his sweet shooting stroke while receiving increased playing time in the postseason. Will he see an uptick in minutes come the regular season?

Following his acquisition from the Detroit Pistons midway through the 2014-15 season, Boston Celtics power forward Jonas Jerebko found his niche almost immediately within the rotation of head coach Brad Stevens. He combined with fellow Motor City holdover Luigi Datome to form a powerful 1-2 shooting combination off of the bench, averaging 7.1 points on 40.6% shooting in a respectable 18.2 minutes per game.

While Jerebko continued his consistent stroke into the 2015-16 season, hitting his perimeter opportunities at a 39.8% clip, his minutes and shot opportunities declined.  The Swede witnessed his three-point attempts per game plummet from 2.2 a year prior to just 1.4, and his three-point makes per game fell from 0.9 to 0.6. His minutes decreased to just 15.1 per outing, and he performed in 78 games without receiving a single starting opportunity.

Despite the shrinkage in his time on the floor, Jerebko still possesses an unteachable ability to spread the floor, one that is valuable in allowing playmaking guards such as Isaiah Thomas or Marcus Smart to thrive in isolation situations. The 6’10”, 231-pounder excels in spot-up situations from the corner, hitting an astronomical 57.9% of his three-point attempts from this area of the floor in his appearances with Boston in 2014-15 while converting on a stellar 40.5% of his corner threes in a larger sample size over the course of last season. For a team that finished a disappointing 28th in the league in three-point percentage in 2015-16, the ability of someone such as Jerebko to space the floor and knock down open looks when provided is extremely crucial.

When Thomas drives towards the basket after absorbing a screen, the defense is forced to close in on the All-Star, leaving a man open to slide down to the corner for a three-pointer. Far too often last season, we witnessed small forward Jae Crowder (32.9% on corner three-pointers) or since-departed shooting guard Evan Turner (34.1% on corner threes) fill that role. This would consistently lead to wide open misses from the perimeter, leaving Stevens flummoxed in helpless fashion on the sidelines while forcing Thomas to take lower percentage midrange jumpers as a result of not trusting his teammates to convert on open looks.

Jerebko also features the unique capability of spotting up for an outside shot in transition as well. Boston developed as one of the league’s most lethal fast-break scoring teams in the NBA last season. A considerable amount of that formidableness was facilitated by their capacity to hurt their opponents with the long ball in these types of situations, positions in which Jerebko or center Kelly Olynyk prospered in.

The Celtics recognized the 28-year-old’s value once the postseason hit, upping his minutes per game average to 27.0 in the face of injury issues to Olynyk and shooting guard Avery Bradley. Jerebko broke out as a spot-up shooting threat in Games 4 and 6, showcasing his value in that regard. While the rest of Boston’s squad struggled to knock down even the most uncontested open looks from deep, Jerebko impressed, garnering 16 points on 3-of-6 shooting from three in Game 4 while hitting multiple outside looks in a 13-point outing in the deciding Game 6 against the Atlanta Hawks.

Heading into the 2016-17 season, Jerebko’s most imposing threat for minutes is Olynyk. The two both flourish in small-ball situations, and will likely be paired with the likes of center Al Horford in a lineup in which spacing the floor is considered paramount. While the Gonzaga product’s three-point shooting percentage of 40.5% last season was slightly higher than Jerebko, the former Pistons second-rounder garners the upper-hand in one key facet of the game that Olynyk has struggled with throughout his career.

Per 36 minutes, Jerebko averaged 8.8 rebounds compared with the seven-footer’s 7.3 last season, posting 6.5 defensive rebounds in the same time frame in which Olynyk would record 5.4. Jerebko’s rebounding prowess was on full display in the postseason, as he posted 12 rebounds in Game three, 10 in Game four, and eight in Game five. Within a small-ball lineup, the ability of the big men to crash the glass is critical, and Jerebko represents more reliability on the boards than does Olynyk.

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Furthermore, the absence of former Celtics center Jared Sullinger from the rotation should signal more pick-and-pop chances for Jerebko with the likes of Thomas and reserve point guard Terry Rozier. Expect Jerebko’s usage to increase to around 20 minutes per game as the season progresses should his consistency from the three-point arc remain the focal piece of his reputation.