A Case for Drafting Prospect Robert Upshaw

Although today’s NBA frequently features small-ball lineups, used to (but not limited to) exploit mismatches and speed up offenses, the demand for centers is still second-to-none. With 17% of all seven foot-tall Americans having played in the NBA, its evident that seven-footers capable of walking and chewing gum simultaneously have a place in the NBA. Even marginally-talented Centers, like Andris Biedrins and Omer Asik, have received +$10 million/year contracts. This premium placed on centers stems from the importance of rim protection, which exists to intimidate post-scorers and cutters alike, and therefore force opposing teams to shoot statistically-inferior jump shots.

The first two picks in this year’s draft will almost certainly be centers. However, there’s one center who, although lottery-pick talented, is currently projected to go in the second round. That player’s name is Robert Upshaw.

Upshaw stands at 7’0″ with a wingspan of 7’5.5″.  His most impressive feature though, is his freakish standing wingspan of 9’5″, which, to put in perspective, Rudy Gobert, who has the longest wingspan in the NBA, has a standing wingspan of 9’6″.

At University of Washington, Upshaw averaged 10.9 points, 8.2 rebounds in only 25 minutes per game. At one point during the season, he led the nation in blocks, at 4.4 a game, despite coming off the bench. His obvious natural talents, distinguished by his ability to run the floor and block shots, has led scouts to compare him to DeAndre Jordan.

If teams selected purely based on talent, Upshaw would be far higher on analysts’ draft boards. However, according to NBA.com, three NBA teams have red-listed Upshaw.

Born in Fresno, CA, Upshaw fulfilled a childhood dream of his playing for his hometown college, Fresno St. However,  Upshaw was asked to leave after just 20 games for undisclosed reasons, believed to be stemming from an inhibiting marijuana habit.

After leaving Fresno, Upshaw attempted to rebound by attending a drug treatment program fronted by former NBA player, John Lucas. After convincing University of Washington’s coaching staff he was ready to resume his college basketball career, Upshaw began at Washington as a redshirt. While redshirting, he failed to meet the staff’s expectations and was asked not to attend team activities.

At this rate, playing time looked doubtful for Upshaw.

However, Upshaw recognized what the future held if he kept things up, and began to turn things around. With this new found motivation, he started attending classes regularly. Upshaw, who had always been a bit on the chubby side, began exercising with such a tenacious resolve that entering his first eligible season at UW, he weighed less than he had at 18 years of age.

Upshaw told the Seattle Times:  “I just got tired of being talked about and not in good way. I got tired of being average. I got tired of being somebody’s joke. Everybody come into the room and it’s ‘Ha-ha. He did this today.’ But it wasn’t anything about basketball.”

Upshaw was in the best shape of his life and ready to make an impact at Washington.

Despite sliding into the lottery in many analysts’ draft boards, all was not well in Washington. Once again Robert Upshaw was asked to leave his college team for undisclosed reasons, this time after only 19 games.

At 21 years old, Upshaw had dug himself into quite a hole. Having destroyed any chance of resuming his college career, Upshaw had no choice but to declare for the draft. While his fellow prospects have been zeroed-in on workouts and proving themselves athletically, Upshaw has been tasked with proving himself emotionally.  Under the guidance of agent Bill Duffy (Klay Thompson, Goran Dragic…), Upshaw has been instructed to assert his sobriety while confirming hes progressed into a mature athlete.

Upshaw has found an alibi in Bill Walton: who has endorsed the 21-year old and used him as a platform to express his pro-marijuana beliefs. While it may be smart for Upshaw to distance himself from any pro-marijuana discussions, seeing as marijuana is still a banned substance in the NBA (and illegal at the federal level), its noteworthy all his transgressions stem from a substance most deem relatively innocent.

Several NBA players with Northwest connections, including Brandon Roy and Jamal Crawford, have come to the defense of Upshaw and provided him vital insight into the trials of the NBA season. Also hailing from the upper Northwest is fellow-Washington-star Isaiah Thomas, who could certainly become a great mentor for the troubled center if he gets selected by the Celtics.

The Boston Celtics are one of several teams who have met with Upshaw, suggesting Ainge is willing to look past Upshaw’s mistakes, and consider selecting him. While Upshaw is currently projected to go between 25 and 50, depending on how successful he was in his PR blitz, he may be chosen earlier.

With the 16th, 28th, 33rd, and 45th picks in this year’s draft, the Celtics will have plenty of opportunities to draft Robert Upshaw. If the Celtics can manage to snag him with the 33rd pick in this year’s draft, it’d allow the Celtics to use their two first-round picks to grab less-risky players. However, if Upshaw becomes this year’s Hassan Whiteside, Ainge will be kicking himself for not picking Upshaw with either of his two firsts.

In the past, Brad Stevens has stated that his ideal roster would include a shot-blocking center.  Robert Upshaw would be the Celtics first starting-caliber shot-blocking center since Kendrick Perkins, but with more offensive upside.

Upshaw shot 60% from the field last year. He displayed an offensive arsenal of right-handed jump hooks, alley-oops and standing dunks. He has a good eye for finding corridors that allowed him to cut to the basket. His ability to run the floor and catch passes in stride, lead him finding easy baskets.  He also has a propensity to get to the line: 7 times per-40 minutes.  However, Upshaw shot a DeAndre Jordan-esque 43% from the free-throw line this year.

Also, Upshaw, whose offensive game is built solely off strength, will find it much harder to score in the NBA as his go-to attack, the aggressive backdown, will be largely neutralized against opponents of equal size.

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Fortunately for Upshaw, young prospects aren’t expected to enter the NBA with a fully-developed offensive game, as that often takes significant time to develop. NBA scouts rather attempt to measure a player’s potential by judging their athletic prowess while examining their existing metric stats. For Upshaw, whose size and strength speaks for itself, advanced stats reflect his strengths are in both defense and rebounding.

Upshaw’s per-40 rebounding was an impressive 13.4, which makes it in the Top-5 of all prospects this year, according to DraftExpress.  Upshaw also had a good nose for snatching offensive rebounds, averaging 2.5 offensive rebounds a game (25 minutes), which closely parallels Tristan Thompson’s 3.6 offensive rebounds a game (31 minutes) in college.

If the Celtics draft Upshaw, then Olynyk and Sullinger wouldn’t need to play out of position for extended minutes again (assuming Sullinger loses weight or else he’ll have no choice but to guard slow centers). If Upshaw amounts to a starting-caliber NBA center, which his level of talent certainly suggests, Stevens would have his shot-blocker, and Ainge would have at least one position figured out in his master plan. We’d essentially be getting an Andre Drummond without the semi-pricey lottery-player salary.

Ainge has never shied away from acquiring high-risk players.  It was just two seasons ago now that Marcus Smart shoved a fan in the first row at a Oklahoma State game, which was projected to significantly lower his stock, yet Danny picked him with the 6th pick anyways.

Brad Stevens has an ability to extract productivity from players whom others have dubbed lost causes: Jordan Crawford, Evan Turner, and even Tyler Zeller to an extent.  I have no doubt that, if Upshaw can refrain from smoking marijuana and lay his ego aside, Brad Stevens and the rest of the Celtics will meet the kid halfway, and help him recognize his potential.

Draft picks after 25 statistically measure up to deep bench players, thus, the Celtics should take a leap of faith and use number 28 to pick Upshaw.  With his size and strength alone, Upshaw will find a role in the NBA as long as he can avoid trouble.

Oh, and please don’t be Fab Melo 2.0.