Celtics Possible Free Agent Target: Monta Ellis
Due to Monta Ellis‘ ill-tempered reputation and overall underwhelming tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks, the Dallas Mavericks were able to sign the then-27-year-old guard to an affordable three-year, $25 million contract. Now at 29, Ellis has until June 24th to decide whether or not he wants to opt-in to the last year of his contract, which would earn him $8.72 million for this upcoming season.
Ellis led the Mavericks with 18.9 points this year, despite being the fourth-highest paid player on the roster. Rumors began to surface alleging that Ellis had grown embittered because of this, especially in light of Chandler Parsons’ lucrative three-year $46 million deal, and would then opt-out and seek a larger contract.
Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has been a strong proponent of Monta Ellis since day one, even suggesting Ellis should be in the All-Star game instead of Dirk, however, it appears Dallas’ front office doesn’t share that same sentiment.
Yesterday, ESPN reported the Mavericks wouldn’t offer Ellis an extension if he decided to opt-out, effectively making him an unrestricted free agent.
While the Celtics’ top free agent targets are LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Deandre Jordan, Danny Ainge understands he’ll need to look elsewhere if he can’t woo any of this offseason’s cream of the free agency crop to Boston. Monta Ellis would become an interesting back-up plan for Ainge, as his natural scoring ability would instantly improve Boston’s offensive firepower, without totally compromising Boston’s salary cap situation.
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When Ellis entered the NBA out of high school in 2005, he was advertised as a shooting guard. In reality, Ellis is more of a point guard/shooting guard hybrid, considering he has the size of the point guard, yet the scoring tendencies of a shooting guard. While Ellis is certainly a talented ball handler and shot distributor, he’s most formidable when seeking out a shot for himself, in lieu of his teammates.
Despite Monta’s obvious offensive talents, he’s prone to regress if he’s not in a stable situation (see 2008-2009 Warriors). Additionally, Ellis’ inefficiency soars if he’s forced to behave as a traditional two-guard. With the Milwaukee Bucks, Ellis found himself this role; marginalized to catch-and-shoots in the corners and awkward isolations relegated to him at the end of shot clocks.
Ellis’ abilities are best utilized with him as the primary ball handler: operating out of the top of the key, with shooters on the wings and big men to set picks for him and roll to the basket. Rick Carlisle recognized this and had the Mavericks run an unreal amount of pick n’ rolls. This led to Ellis leading the team in scoring, replacing Dirk as the primary closer, and enjoying an increase in efficiency. In his first year with the Mavericks, Ellis’ True Shooting Percentage jumped from 49% to 53%, as both his three point and free throw shooting improved .
However, Ellis’ three-point shooting (31.4% career) still leaves much to be desired. His inability to hit shots from three at a consistent rate makes him an unattractive free agent to teams adopting the modern NBA’s paradigm defined by advanced statistics: preaching offensive efficiency optimized by teams shooting three-pointers at a high percentage.
With defenders disrespecting Ellis’ shot, and thus straying from the perimeter to better protect the paint, spacing issues became an issue for the Mavericks. With a back court now comprised of both Ellis and Rondo – who we know first-hand is a terrible shooter – Ellis’ efficiency plummeted.
Their offensive spacing problems became glaring during their short-lived playoff run against the Houston Rockets, who handily won the series 4-1. The advanced stats-savvy Rockets stifled the Mavericks’ claustrophobic offensive sets (which led to a spike in JJ Barea’s minutes and a Rajon Rondo meltdown), in addition to cutting through the Mavericks porous defense, in partial thanks Monta Ellis’ limited defensive prowess.
While Ellis does have quick lateral movements, which makes him capable in man-to-man defensive scenarios, his size makes him an overall defensive liability. Ellis, at just 6’3″, is an awkward size for a player who spends most of his time defending shooting guards (yet Avery Bradley has no problem). His height frequently allows other teams to exploit the mismatch created, whether it be through post-ups or switches on pick n’ rolls, and score at a higher rate with him in the game.
To put it bluntly, it would take a Brad Stevens miracle to make this match work. Although Stevens has made seemingly ill-fitting puzzle pieces fit (see Jordan Crawford and Evan Turner), Ellis wouldn’t bring this Celtics team any closer to raising banner number 18.
While a back court of Marcus Smart and Monta Ellis may work defensively, as Smart’s defensive superpowers would compensate for Ellis’ defensive woes, Ellis would once again, create spacing issues. While Smart had a surprisingly solid three-point shooting year (led all rookies in three-pointers made in addition to shooting 33.5%), his slow-release, paired with his still-below average percentage, would not be conducive to a Celtics team attempting to improve its efficiency.
An Isaiah Thomas-Monta Ellis back court would quickly become the historically-worst defensive back court in the NBA, in addition to re-defining the hero ball game. An Avery Bradley-Monta Ellis back court would ultimately struggle in creating ball movement and finding open shots for teammates (not to mention shooting a statistically-ugly number of long two-pointers). Any back court you try and configure with this mismatched combo of guards would create logistical issues, not to mention chemistry problems inevitably created by Monta Ellis’ presence.
The reason last year’s Celtics team worked (read: over-performed) was due to an overall balance in egos, abilities and size. Every player bought into Brad Stevens style and once Rondo was gone, there was not one instance of locker room drama. The Celtics still need a star player and Monta Ellis, I assure you, is no star player.