How do the Boston Celtics Stack Up Against the Atlanta Hawks?

May 10, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Hawks Coach Larry Drew instructs guard Kirk Hinrich (6) during the first quarter of game six in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

The Hawks finished 40-26 last year (60.6 win percentage), and drew Boston in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, where they were eliminated by the Celtics (who else?) four games to two.

That doesn’t set a good precedence for the Hawks, because it’s doubtful they’ve improved with the subtraction of Joe Johnson, who was traded for Jordan Farmar, Johan Petro, Anthony Morrow, Jordan WIlliams, DeShawn Stevenson and a first round pick.  The move was a cap-clearing move for the Hawks, and it likely only weakened the team.  The question is, by how much did it weaken them?

We’re going to break down the match ups position by position, and attempt to discern when the 2012-13 model of the Hawks stands any better chance against the Celtics.

 

Point Guard:

Rajon Rondo / Dionte Christmas vs. Jeff Teague / Devin Harris

May 10, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague (0) drives against Boston Celtics forward/center Brandon Bass (30) during the second quarter of game six in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

Jeff Teague is projected by John Hollinger to put up 15.7 points per game and 6.5 assists per contest.  Hollinger cites Teague as a “quick, scoring-minded guard who can get to the basket,” but who has a “mediocre outside shot” and is an “average distributor.”  Save the average distributor part, that sounds a lot like Rajon Rondo, doesn’t it?

Teague showed in the 2011 Playoffs that he was a stud in the making, when he scored 21 points in back to back games against the Chicago Bulls, then after following it up with 12 points in game five, scored 21 again in game six.  The 6’2″ guard from Wake Forest had put himself on the map, and primed himself for a bigger role in 2011-12.  But expectations may have been too high.  Last year, Teague shot 47.6 percent from the floor, but still only averaged 12.6 points per game to go with 4.9 assists.  So, that 15.7 and 6.5 prediction from Hollinger calls for a career year from Teague.

Backing Teague up is a former starting point guard in Devin Harris.  Harris at one point appeared to have all the makings of a perennial All-Star, but poor shot selection caused his fall to mediocrity.  Still, Harris is one of the better back up point guards in the NBA at this point, and could take over if Teague struggles.

How does this match up to Rondo?  It doesn’t.  Rondo is near an All-NBA First team level type of player and he’s going to have his way with Teague and Harris.  He already proved that last year against the Hawks when he posted double-doubles (including a triple double) in the first four games  of the series, and then after a decent game five, posted another double double in game six.  The triple double in game two included 17 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists.  Rondo can have his way like this against the Hawks, and this matchup is one of the main reasons that the Hawks are at such a huge disadvantage against the C’s.

Advantage:  Boston

 

 

Shooting Guard:

Courtney Lee / Avery Bradley / Jason Terry vs. Anthony Morrow / Lou Williams /  John Jenkins

May 23, 2012; Philadelphia, PA USA; Philadelphia 76ers point guard Lou Williams (23) reacts after making a shot against the Boston Celtics during the second half of game six of the Eastern Conference semifinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at the Wells Fargo Center. The 76ers defeated the Celtics, 82-75. The 76ers tied the series at 3 games each. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-US PRESSWIRE

If you’ve been following along with these team comparisons, you’ve heard me rave plenty about the depth of the Celtics backcourt.  Considering that the Hawks’ starter Anthony Morrow isn’t even as good as the Celtics’ third stringer in Lee or Terry (after Bradley returns from injury), I’m not going to further belabor the merits of the Celtics’ backcourt since I’ve done it justice in enough in previous previews.

Suffice it to say, that though Morrow is an excellent three point shooter and Lou Williams was a sixth man of the year candidate, the Celtics have a huge advantage here.  Make no mistake, I’m not discounting Williams; he can get very hot and put up points in bunches—but the Celtics have the defense to counteract that.  They have two lock down defenders in Lee and Bradley, and a very good one in Terry.

I don’t expect Morrow to get a lot of quality looks, though he will knock down the ones he does get…and I don’t expect Lou Williams to blow up off the bench, though he often does.  The Celtics have the defense to neutralize both guards.  DeShawn Stevenson is a non-factor, and John Jenkins is a marginal first rounder who Hollinger cites as a “one trick pony” capable of shooting well from outside but capable of doing much else.

Advantage:  Celtics

 

 

Small Forward:

 

Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Kris Joseph vs. Kyle Korver / DeShawn Stevenson

One of the Hawks worst positions is one of the Celtics best.  Kyle Korver is not a starting caliber NBA small forward and DeShawn Stevenson posted the worst PER of any player to record at least 500 minutes of game play last year.

April 16, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls small forward Kyle Korver (26) shoots the ball against the Washington Wizards during the second quarter at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-US PRESSWIRE

Korver is a bit underrated, and Hollinger projects a 13.8 point per game average to go with 3.6 assists per game, but I find that a bit optimistic.  I think something in the neighborhood of 10.5-11 points per game is a bit more realistic, and I don’t think Korver’s defense is going to suit him too well against a player like Paul Pierce, whose guile and skill will, and has in the past, given Korver fits.

How can we begin to compare this position, though, really?  The Hawks have two guys that are both not worthy of starting, and the Celtics have two who are—Jeff Green could start on a number of teams.  In fact, the only really interesting thing would be to see if third stringer Kris Joseph could out play both Korver and Stevenson as an unheralded second round pick rookie.  It’s not out of the question…

Advantage:  Celtics, by a mile

 

 

Power Forward

Brandon Bass / Jared Sullinger / Chris Wilcox  vs.  Josh Smith / Ivan Johnson / Mike Scott

Ah, finally, a position at which the Hawks have themselves an advantage.  Somehow, Josh Smith has still never made an All-Star team, but he is an All-Star level talent, to be sure.  One of the best defenders in the game, he might eventually end up playing in green and white come next season, as he is a free agent this summer and Danny Ainge could get creative with the cap and find a way to get Smith in Beantown.

May 10, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Smith (5) reacts to being defeat by the Boston Celtics 83-80 in game six in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

Smith is projected to have a career year by Hollinger:  20.6 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, 4.2 assists per game, with a PER of 19.9.  I don’t disagree with Hollinger here, because with Joe Johnson gone, Smith will be the man offensively.  He’s not particularly skilled offensively, he dribbles too much and takes poor shots, but he is a superior athlete to just about every other forward in the league, so he finds ways to score, anyway.

Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger are gifted offensively (especially Sullinger), but we’re talking about an Second Team All-Defensive player in Smith (2009-10), and a guy who draws votes for Defensive Player of the Year on an annual basis.  Smith has blocked 2.2 shots per game over his career, and averages 1.3 steals per game too.

That disruptive influence will cause problems not only for the Celtics power forwards, Brandon Bass and Jared Sullinger, namely, but for other C’s starters at all.  It is Smith who will change Rondo’s shots.  It is Smith who will contest KG on the glass.  It is Smith that keeps this Hawks team relevant.

Ivan Johnson and Mike Scott are not big factors, though Johnson is a tough player who can provide some hustle off the bench.  It’s basically just Smith against Bass and Sullinger, to simply things (since I doubt Chris Wilcox sees many minutes now with the addition of Darko Milicic), and that doesn’t look good for the Celtics.  Thankfully, it’s only one position.

Advantage:  Hawks

 

 

Center:

Kevin Garnett / Darko Milicic / Jason Collins / Fab Melo vs. Al Horford / Zaza Pachulia / Johan Petro

Kevin Garnett may not see the bulk of his minutes at center with the addition of Darko Mlicic, but for the time being, we’re dealing with it as though KG is the go-to guy at center.  Ideally, Doc Rivers would like to shift The Big Ticket back to his natural position of power forward, but that will only be if the Celtics have that luxury, and against a team like the Hawks, they may be able to.

May 10, 2012; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward/center Al Horford (15) reacts during the fourth quarter of game six against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals of the 2012 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Boston Celtics won 83-80. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE

Al Horford is undersized for a center, and belongs at power forward like Garnett.  KG may be best off covering Smith, so bringing in Darko to cover Horford certainly makes some sense.  Horford made the All-Star team in 2010 and 2011, and ranked ninth in the league in win shares in 2009-10 with 10.9.  He spent most of last year injured, but came back for the last 11 games of the season and played in the playoffs.

It’s hard to decide who has an advantage here, with so many unanswered questions regarding the Celtics’ rotation following the acquisition of Milicic, but if we compare it as-is, and pit KG against Horford, I’m hard pressed to declare a victor.  KG is old and Horford is in his prime, but Garnett’s defense is still top notch and Horford isn’t overwhelming offensively, just pretty good.

Advantage:  EVEN

 

 

Coach:

Doc Rivers vs. Larry Drew

 

I’m not going to get into bad mouthing Larry Drew.  He’s done the best he could with the team he’s had, but I don’t see much of a comparison to be made here between Drew and Rivers.  Drew has a head coaching job, and Rivers is an elite coach.  That’s about the main difference.  Still, Drew did take the Hawks to a 40-26 record, which isn’t bad considering that the team still really never had a guy who should be considered a true alpha dog.  Joe Johnson is a second option type offensively, and he will be just that now in Brooklyn.  Either way, give Larry Drew the team that Doc Rivers had in Orlando and expect him to coach it to a .500 record.  It’s just not happening.  Even with a more talented Hawks team, he wasn’t able to do much better.

Advantage:  Celtics

 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  The Hawks made a cap cutting move and jettisoned Joe Johnson, and they’re going to pay for it.

Pay for it?  Pay what?  Well, the Hawks were already nowhere close to being contenders, so all that really happens now is that they go from mediocre to marginally bad.  That is to say they can find themselves in a 7th or 8th seed position come playoff time, but not much better.  And they certainly don’t stand much of a chance against a top shelf Eastern Conference team like the C’s.

 

Series Prediction:  Boston Sweeps ‘em

Topics: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce

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  • Anonymous

    Someone is obviously a celtics fan

  • Mr.Atl

    I was about to create an account and everything just to say the same thing the other guy did. But I will use fact and see if you respond.

    First: Our Starting lineup has yet to be established. Considering the Combo guards and players that can play so many different positions you based this off what fit the celtics winning, and not how the celtics could lose.

    Point Guards: Jeff Teauge/ Devin Harris/ Lou Williams vs Rondo/ Christmas

    Is Rondo playing the entire game in your world? You said he will destroy both Devin and Jeff, right? Boston has no depth at the point. If rondo goes down you guys are, for lack of a better word, screwed. You have one All NBA caliber point with nada behind him. In a full season with 82 games looking to the playoffs with no one coming off the bench worth a damn and saying that its an automatic win for boston is just childish. At most its a push.

    Shooting guard: Courtney Lee / Avery Bradley / Jason Terry vs. Devin Harris/Anthony Morrow / Lou Williams / John Jenkins

    First again notice the depth at the two guard spot that atlanta has. Notice the different looks that LD has to throw at you guys whenever he want. He has get in the lane players spread the floor players and everything in between. Boston still has an amazing cast here also in Lee and the Jet. Avery Bradley, in case you missed it, is not with you currently. Also he will be returning from surgery. Therefore, again, you lack depth at a guard spot. Courtney lee may be better than morrow ,our second option at the 2 spot, but not Devin Harris our potential starter at the 2 spot along side Jeff teauge. Advantage Hawks

    Small Forward: Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Kris Joseph vs. Josh Smith/Kyle Korver / DeShawn Stevenson

    Again you show that you are simply a Celtics fan and not looking at what options the team you are trying to belittle actually has. The Hawks can and will start Smoove at the 3 spot just to shut down Paul Pierce. You said this position was Celtics by a mile. You are wrong. Paul Pierce on Josh Smith is beyond the both of us. It depends on what these guys do on this particular night. Smoove is the better player but Pierce has those nights where he can really show out. Finally a position where the C’s have depth but not the same quality depth. I truly give this position also a push.

    Brandon Bass / Jared Sullinger / Chris Wilcox vs. Al Horford/Josh Smith / Ivan Johnson / Mike Scott

    Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta. Al Horford is a beast. Brandon Bass is good but not an All Star. With Josh at the 3 and Ivan coming off the bench behind Al Vs Jared Sullinger, you guys better make sure his back is ok before he gets close to Ivan. Advantage Hawks

    Kevin Garnett / Darko Milicic / Jason Collins / Fab Melo vs. Zaza Pachulia /Al Horford/ Johan Petro

    Zaza and KG have a storied history. The ONLY reason things went badly for the hawks last year was because Ivan was having locker room issues and Zaza was hurt. With a rotating mix of Al, Zaza, and Ivan at the Center position and no true center on the entire celtics bench I can’t imagine how you called this a push. Jason Collins is the Hawks trash. Remember who we got an played over him? I’ll remind you, Dampier. That’s right we signed garbage and used garbage over the garbage you signed from us. To say Boston Lacks Depth at the 5 spot is an understatement. They Have no 5. Advantage Hawks

    Coach: Larry Drew Vs. Doc Rivers

    Advantage Hawks simply because Doc Is a Hawk himself. That was humor. There is no comparison of these two. Doc is “The Truth”

    So with that being said, the more things change the more they stay the same. Boston, who lost to the Hawks in every game of the Regular season in the last non-lockout shortened season, will again remember what we do in the Highlight Factory.

    3-1 Hawks Hope we see you first round again Healthy
    I was about to create an account and everything just to say the same thing the other guy did. But I will use fact and see if you respond.
    First: Our Starting lineup has yet to be established. Considering the Combo guards and players that can play so many different positions you based this off what fit the celtics winning, and not how the celtics could lose.
    Point Guards: Jeff Teauge/ Devin Harris/ Lou Williams vs Rondo/ Christmas
    Is Rondo playing the entire game in your world? You said he will destroy both Devin and Jeff, right? Boston has no depth at the point. If rondo goes down you guys are, for lack of a better word, screwed. You have one All NBA caliber point with nada behind him. In a full season with 82 games looking to the playoffs with no one coming off the bench worth a damn and saying that its an automatic win for boston is just childish. At most its a push.
    Shooting guard: Courtney Lee / Avery Bradley / Jason Terry vs. Devin Harris/Anthony Morrow / Lou Williams / John Jenkins
    First again notice the depth at the two guard spot that atlanta has. Notice the different looks that LD has to throw at you guys whenever he want. He has get in the lane players spread the floor players and everything in between. Boston still has an amazing cast here also in Lee and the Jet. Avery Bradley, in case you missed it, is not with you currently. Also he will be returning from surgery. Therefore, again, you lack depth at a guard spot. Courtney lee may be better than morrow ,our second option at the 2 spot, but not Devin Harris our potential starter at the 2 spot along side Jeff teauge. Advantage Hawks
    Small Forward: Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Kris Joseph vs. Josh Smith/Kyle Korver / DeShawn Stevenson

    Again you show that you are simply a Celtics fan and not looking at what options the team you are trying to belittle actually has. The Hawks can and will start Smoove at the 3 spot just to shut down Paul Pierce. You said this position was Celtics by a mile. You are wrong. Paul Pierce on Josh Smith is beyond the both of us. It depends on what these guys do on this particular night. Smoove is the better player but Pierce has those nights where he can really show out. Finally a position where the C’s have depth but not the same quality depth. I truly give this position also a push.
    Brandon Bass / Jared Sullinger / Chris Wilcox vs. Al Horford/Josh Smith / Ivan Johnson / Mike Scott

    Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta. Al Horford is a beast. Brandon Bass is good but not an All Star. With Josh at the 3 and Ivan coming off the bench behind Al Vs Jared Sullinger, you guys better make sure his back is ok before he gets close to Ivan. Advantage Hawks
    Kevin Garnett / Darko Milicic / Jason Collins / Fab Melo vs. Zaza Pachulia /Al Horford/ Johan Petro

    Zaza and KG have a storied history. The ONLY reason things went badly for the hawks last year was because Ivan was having locker room issues and Zaza was hurt. With a rotating mix of Al, Zaza, and Ivan at the Center position and no true center on the entire celtics bench I can’t imagine how you called this a push. Jason Collins is the Hawks trash. Remember who we got an played over him? I’ll remind you, Dampier. That’s right we signed garbage and used garbage over the garbage you signed from us. To say Boston Lacks Depth at the 5 spot is an understatement. They Have no 5. Advantage Hawks
    Coach: Larry Drew Vs. Doc Rivers
    Advantage Hawks simply because Doc Is a Hawk himself. That was humor. There is no comparison of these two. Doc is “The Truth”
    So with that being said, the more things change the more they stay the same. Boston, who lost to the Hawks in every game of the Regular season in the last non-lockout shortened season, will again remember what we do in the Highlight Factory.
    3-1 Hawks Hope we see you first round again Healthy

  • MRC2U

    I was about to create an account and everything just to say the same thing the other guy did. But I will use fact and see if you respond.

    First: Our Starting lineup has yet to be established. Considering the Combo guards and players that can play so many different positions you based this off what fit the celtics winning, and not how the celtics could lose.

    Point Guards: Jeff Teauge/ Devin Harris/ Lou Williams vs Rondo/ Christmas

    Is Rondo playing the entire game in your world? You said he will destroy both Devin and Jeff, right? Boston has no depth at the point. If rondo goes down you guys are, for lack of a better word, screwed. You have one All NBA caliber point with nada behind him. In a full season with 82 games looking to the playoffs with no one coming off the bench worth a damn and saying that its an automatic win for boston is just childish. At most its a push.

    Shooting guard: Courtney Lee / Avery Bradley / Jason Terry vs. Devin Harris/Anthony Morrow / Lou Williams / John Jenkins

    First again notice the depth at the two guard spot that atlanta has. Notice the different looks that LD has to throw at you guys whenever he want. He has get in the lane players spread the floor players and everything in between. Boston still has an amazing cast here also in Lee and the Jet. Avery Bradley, in case you missed it, is not with you currently. Also he will be returning from surgery. Therefore, again, you lack depth at a guard spot. Courtney lee may be better than morrow ,our second option at the 2 spot, but not Devin Harris our potential starter at the 2 spot along side Jeff teauge. Advantage Hawks

    Small Forward: Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Kris Joseph vs. Josh Smith/Kyle Korver / DeShawn Stevenson

    Again you show that you are simply a Celtics fan and not looking at what options the team you are trying to belittle actually has. The Hawks can and will start Smoove at the 3 spot just to shut down Paul Pierce. You said this position was Celtics by a mile. You are wrong. Paul Pierce on Josh Smith is beyond the both of us. It depends on what these guys do on this particular night. Smoove is the better player but Pierce has those nights where he can really show out. Finally a position where the C’s have depth but not the same quality depth. I truly give this position also a push.

    Brandon Bass / Jared Sullinger / Chris Wilcox vs. Al Horford/Josh Smith / Ivan Johnson / Mike Scott

    Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta. Al Horford is a beast. Brandon Bass is good but not an All Star. With Josh at the 3 and Ivan coming off the bench behind Al Vs Jared Sullinger, you guys better make sure his back is ok before he gets close to Ivan. Advantage Hawks

    Kevin Garnett / Darko Milicic / Jason Collins / Fab Melo vs. Zaza Pachulia /Al Horford/ Johan Petro

    Zaza and KG have a storied history. The ONLY reason things went badly for the hawks last year was because Ivan was having locker room issues and Zaza was hurt. With a rotating mix of Al, Zaza, and Ivan at the Center position and no true center on the entire celtics bench I can’t imagine how you called this a push. Jason Collins is the Hawks trash. Remember who we got an played over him? I’ll remind you, Dampier. That’s right we signed garbage and used garbage over the garbage you signed from us. To say Boston Lacks Depth at the 5 spot is an understatement. They Have no 5. Advantage Hawks

    Coach: Larry Drew Vs. Doc Rivers

    Advantage Hawks simply because Doc Is a Hawk himself. That was humor. There is no comparison of these two. Doc is “The Truth”

    So with that being said, the more things change the more they stay the same. Boston, who lost to the Hawks in every game of the Regular season in the last non-lockout shortened season, will again remember what we do in the Highlight Factory.

    3-1 Hawks Hope we see you first round again Healthy
    I was about to create an account and everything just to say the same thing the other guy did. But I will use fact and see if you respond.
    First: Our Starting lineup has yet to be established. Considering the Combo guards and players that can play so many different positions you based this off what fit the celtics winning, and not how the celtics could lose.
    Point Guards: Jeff Teauge/ Devin Harris/ Lou Williams vs Rondo/ Christmas
    Is Rondo playing the entire game in your world? You said he will destroy both Devin and Jeff, right? Boston has no depth at the point. If rondo goes down you guys are, for lack of a better word, screwed. You have one All NBA caliber point with nada behind him. In a full season with 82 games looking to the playoffs with no one coming off the bench worth a damn and saying that its an automatic win for boston is just childish. At most its a push.
    Shooting guard: Courtney Lee / Avery Bradley / Jason Terry vs. Devin Harris/Anthony Morrow / Lou Williams / John Jenkins
    First again notice the depth at the two guard spot that atlanta has. Notice the different looks that LD has to throw at you guys whenever he want. He has get in the lane players spread the floor players and everything in between. Boston still has an amazing cast here also in Lee and the Jet. Avery Bradley, in case you missed it, is not with you currently. Also he will be returning from surgery. Therefore, again, you lack depth at a guard spot. Courtney lee may be better than morrow ,our second option at the 2 spot, but not Devin Harris our potential starter at the 2 spot along side Jeff teauge. Advantage Hawks
    Small Forward: Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Kris Joseph vs. Josh Smith/Kyle Korver / DeShawn Stevenson

    Again you show that you are simply a Celtics fan and not looking at what options the team you are trying to belittle actually has. The Hawks can and will start Smoove at the 3 spot just to shut down Paul Pierce. You said this position was Celtics by a mile. You are wrong. Paul Pierce on Josh Smith is beyond the both of us. It depends on what these guys do on this particular night. Smoove is the better player but Pierce has those nights where he can really show out. Finally a position where the C’s have depth but not the same quality depth. I truly give this position also a push.
    Brandon Bass / Jared Sullinger / Chris Wilcox vs. Al Horford/Josh Smith / Ivan Johnson / Mike Scott

    Atlanta, Atlanta, Atlanta. Al Horford is a beast. Brandon Bass is good but not an All Star. With Josh at the 3 and Ivan coming off the bench behind Al Vs Jared Sullinger, you guys better make sure his back is ok before he gets close to Ivan. Advantage Hawks
    Kevin Garnett / Darko Milicic / Jason Collins / Fab Melo vs. Zaza Pachulia /Al Horford/ Johan Petro

    Zaza and KG have a storied history. The ONLY reason things went badly for the hawks last year was because Ivan was having locker room issues and Zaza was hurt. With a rotating mix of Al, Zaza, and Ivan at the Center position and no true center on the entire celtics bench I can’t imagine how you called this a push. Jason Collins is the Hawks trash. Remember who we got an played over him? I’ll remind you, Dampier. That’s right we signed garbage and used garbage over the garbage you signed from us. To say Boston Lacks Depth at the 5 spot is an understatement. They Have no 5. Advantage Hawks
    Coach: Larry Drew Vs. Doc Rivers
    Advantage Hawks simply because Doc Is a Hawk himself. That was humor. There is no comparison of these two. Doc is “The Truth”
    So with that being said, the more things change the more they stay the same. Boston, who lost to the Hawks in every game of the Regular season in the last non-lockout shortened season, will again remember what we do in the Highlight Factory.
    3-1 Hawks Hope we see you first round again Healthy