Game 7 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals was, by most all accounts, rough. It was a rock fight that ground on until eventually, the Miami Heat pulled away, leaving the Boston Celtics with no response. But things got cloudy quickly for the Cs.
On the game’s first possession, Celtics star Jayson Tatum badly rolled his ankle.
While it might be easier, or at least simpler, to point to this as the reason for the team’s demise, it wasn’t. It was unfortunate but, there were several greater factors that ultimately led to the Eastern Conference Finals loss.
Here are 3 reasons you can’t blame the Boston Celtics’ Game 7 loss on Jayson Tatum’s ankle injury
Boston Celtics Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Reason no. 1: The Heat were banged up too
It would be easy to say that if Tatum was 100%, then this game would have gone differently. But that rationale goes both ways, the Heat were also down a starter and proficient scorer, in Tyler Herro. Additionally, Boston’s Malcolm Brogdon was clearly not healthy either dealing with a tendon injury in his arm.
Obviously, things don’t happen in a vacuum. It wouldn’t be sufficient to say that if Tatum didn’t roll an ankle, and Herro was fully healthy, then the result would still be the same. Or if Brogdon was still able to shoot then the Boston Celtics would have won either.
Basketball doesn’t have static, player-team-opponent-cause-effect relationships. It’s a fluid game with highly interdependent pieces working with and against the other pieces. As those pieces are added or subtracted, everything shifts around it.
However, the main point is that the what-ifs don’t hold as much weight when both teams can throw them back at each other. The way Miami marched on, was the same way the Celtics needed to. They needed to find other talents to plug the holes.
Reason no. 2: Boston Celtics’ shot selection
It’s no secret that the Boston Celtics lived and died by the 3-pointer these playoffs. Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a rare instance of the team dragging out a win while shooting terribly from long distance (20%). Game 7 gave similar stats, with the Celtics shooting 21.4% on 42 attempts.
3-point shooting is fine. It’s not a problem when the shots are falling, and even when they aren’t at times. But it has turned into a problem not only when the shots aren’t falling but also when the team refuses to try something else in dire situations. This game isn’t an isolated event either. In 2018, the Boston Celtics shot themselves out of a game-seven loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. In this season overall, the Celtics averaged 31.6 percent from three in losses, and 40.3% in wins.
That isn’t to say that this team doesn’t have talent. Shooting over 40% en route to 57 wins is impressive. But, keep in mind that is spread out over 82 games. In Game 7, there is no more time to hope things will balance out. The shooting percentage is just as likely not to revert back to the mean, as it is to stay where it is.
Yes, a healthy Tatum would probably have helped things. He probably would have attempted more than 13 field goals and helped the offense get better looks. But it’s not like the Celtics weren’t getting open shots from the 3-point line either. Per the NBA’s tracking data, 35 of Boston’s three-point attempts were considered open (closest defender 4-6 feet) or wide open (closest defender 6+ feet). On which, the team shot 28 and 20 percent respectively.
If this were the regular season, it would be reasonable to say to keep shooting. But in a do-or-die game seven, the team has to be willing to try and find something else.
Reason no. 3: It must always be a “next man up” mentality
In the NBA, and in all sports, injuries happen. What’s important is how the team finds a way to overcome it. How does the rest of the team respond? This means that someone needs to rise to the occasion if the team is going to have any hope of prevailing. Basketball is a team effort, so a singular star player going down can’t take the wind out of everyone’s sails. Other teams, even the Boston Celtics in the past, find ways to keep going forward.
For the Celtics, the first one looked at is Jaylen Brown. Brown earned second-team All-NBA honors this year, and rightfully so. But with that comes added weight. And for much of the year, Brown was able to bare that weight. Especially when Tatum was having an off night, Brown was able to step up and become the number one option. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case for game seven.
Where Tatum struggled, Brown followed suit. He shot 34.8% from the field and 1/9 from beyond the arc. But where it was clear things were off for Brown was his turnovers. He gave the ball up eight times, for a majority of the Boston Celtics’ 15 turnovers. Even more troublesome for Brown was some turnovers came unprovoked by the defense. His lack of ball-handling ability has become outright confusing and frustrating.
To some extent, it isn’t fair to put everything on Jaylen Brown. He was also banged up and there are other guys on the court. But there does need to be some consideration as to how reliable he can be in these, the biggest moments, especially when considering he might be offered a super-max contract. If Derrick White or Al Horford had themselves a breakout game it would have been viewed as a bonus. But if Brown were to step up, it would be viewed as what he was supposed to do. That is what that kind of potential money is for.
Overall this team and this roster still had a great season. Making it to the Eastern Conference Finals is by no means easy. Many teams have never even gotten that far while the Celtics have made frequent appearances over the last decade. Making it to five and winning just one since 2017 is impressive, and each one has its own story. But the question is: what do they do now? What do they need to get over the final challenges they’ve faced in the last two playoffs?
Maintaining the status quo might be enough but it also might not.