When it comes to a team like the Boston Celtics, 2021-22 should be viewed as somewhat of a redemption season.
After making it to the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the previous four campaigns, the Cs endured one of their most disappointing seasons in recent memory in 2020-21, sporting their worst record (36-36) since 2014-15 and seeing their first Quarterfinals exit since 2015-16.
Within just 24-hours after their Game 5 playoff defeat against the Brooklyn Nets, the franchise went about and kicked off their summer of shakeups by seeing long-tenured executive, Danny Ainge, step down from his front office duties and, stepping in as his replacement as President of Basketball Operations, Brad Stevens moved on up the chain of command.
From there, we began to see transaction after transaction take place and now, as of this writing, the team’s rotation looks quite different when being compared to last year’s squad, and we mean this in a good way.
Now, with this new-look roster comes new expectations and, as we inch closer to the start of the season we anticipate fans and media alike will start churning out their takes on what they believe could transpire during this upcoming 82-game stretch.
For the folks at Bleacher Report, it would appear that they’ve already gotten a head start on these activities, as they recently pushed out an article discussing 3 bold predictions for the Boston Celtics this year.
With this piece, it inspired us at the Houdini to do a little analysis of our own and play a new game we like to call “Buy or Sell”, where we look at some recently made takes/ claims and discuss whether we agree with them or if we believe them to be a little far-fetched.
So, without further adieu, let’s get started:
Boston Celtics prediction No. 1) “Josh Richardson starts more games than Dennis Schroder”
For his first bold prediction, writer, Zach Buckley, decided to dive right into a conversation pertaining to two of the biggest acquisitions the Boston Celtics made this offseason in Dennis Schroder and Josh Richardson.
Both newcomers have spent a large chunk of their careers serving in the first five for their respective ball clubs and now, with the shamrocks, they more than likely have aspirations of continuing this trend.
However, with the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and arguably even Marcus Smart all coming into the year guaranteed a starting role, Boston seemingly has just two spots available in this lineup that need to be filled, and one of them is center which is a position neither of these offseason acquisitions will qualify for.
With Smart being as versatile as he is, he could realistically lineup at either the one or two, thus giving both Schroder and Richardson an equal chance of nabbing a starting gig.
However, as far as Buckley’s concerned, the wing should find himself running in this rotation more often, for he believes his playstyle fits far better with Boston’s core players:
"They’ve seen what his length and energy can do defensively. They know he can help keep things moving as a secondary ball-handler and ball-mover. They also believe he can rediscover his touch from distance, a sentiment felt by Udoka, an assistant coach on that same Sixers squad. “He didn’t shoot as well the last few years but we are going to get him back to that,” the coach told reporters. “He’s a better shooter than he showed in Dallas.” If the Tennessee product gets his groove back from range—he shot 36.6 percent outside his last two seasons in South Beach—he’d become a cleaner fit for the first five than Schroder, whose ball-dominance and scorer’s mentality arguably fits best in a sixth man spot."
Even though Schroder has proven to be a solid starting point guard in this league — yes, even including his play from last season — and certainly could end up landing a starting spot at some point this season, we can’t help but agree that his ideal fit on this team is likely as their spark-plug sixth man.
The last time he served in this type of role was in 2019-20 with the OKC Thunder, where he would boast stellar per-game averages of 18.9 points, four assists, and 3.6 rebounds on 47 percent shooting from the field and 38.5 percent shooting from deep and, with this high-level production, he wound up finishing second in the running for the Sixth Man of the Year award.
After not living up to his self-appointed lofty expectations last season, Schroder is more than likely coming into 2021-22 with redemption on his mind.
Because of this, he should be more than welcoming to the idea of being shifted back to the role off the bench that he played so well in just two years back, and the Boston Celtics should desire this same sort of scheme as well.
Verdict: Buy
Boston Celtics prediction No. 2) “Marcus Smart averages 7-plus assists”
As we mentioned in the previous slide, Marcus Smart is one of the more likely candidates to nab a regular starting gig this coming season alongside Tatum and Brown.
What makes this campaign more interesting for the 27-year-old is that, for the first time in his soon-to-be eight-year career he’ll be coming in with the point guard slot — his natural position — being his to lose.
With this, Buckley believes that Smart’s current situation will make him the team’s primary playmaker and, due to his passing abilities, could lead him to have a career year in the assists department:
"He has always been a sneaky-good passer, but those contributions (and opportunities) have been muted by the presences of Walker, Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas. The 27-year-old averaged a career-high 5.7 assists last season. Importantly, he also averaged just 2.0 turnovers. He can control an offense and weaponizing him as a passer might cover up his limitations as a scorer. It could also free Tatum and Brown to focus more on their own scoring, though each will chip in with shot-creating duties, too. Still, a lot of this offense will run through Smart, and he’ll take advantage of the weapons around him. By year’s end, he’ll have shattered his previous best and perhaps cracked the league’s top 10 with at least seven assists per outing."
While we at HH are in agreement with Buckley that Smart will finally have the opportunity to serve as the full-time lead guard for the Boston Celtics this season, the prediction that he will average seven or more assists by year’s end is a little difficult for us to fully get behind.
Out of his 449 regular-season games played in his career so far, only 80 of them have seen assists numbers in this specific range.
Now yes, in response I know you’ll want to bring up the fact that for the vast majority of this time he was serving in the backcourt with other ball-dominant guards such as the ones mentioned in the B/R piece and, thus, it obviously hindered his potential averages otherwise.
However, even last season when serving as the primary guard for the Boston Celtics during the first month of action that Kemba Walker was out, Smart still only went on to average six assists a night and saw only three games where he dished out seven or more dimes.
Of course, a new season brings about new opportunities and possibilities, but with first-year head coach, Ime Udoka, stating that he wishes to see more team-oriented basketball to be played while also saying he wants guys like Tatum and Brown initiating the offense, we find it hard to believe that Smart will now turn into some sort of ball-dominant floor general.
Verdict: Sell
Boston Celtics prediction No. 3) “Aaron Nesmith makes 150-plus threes”
Last, but certainly not least, we have perhaps the boldest prediction of the entire article as well as the one we truly hope happens — last year’s 14th overall pick, Aaron Nesmith, knocks down 150-plus triples.
Coming into the 2020 NBA Draft, we at the site were rather big on the Vanderbilt star and even went about labeling him as the best shooter in his class what with the fact that he converted on 52 percent of his deep attempts during his final season with the Commodores.
Despite a rocky rookie campaign, Nesmith did show flashes of being a quality player in this league, especially towards the end of the year where, during the final nine games of the regular season, he posted averages of 9.7 points and 4.9 rebounds on 53.6 percent shooting from the floor and 45 percent shooting from deep.
Now, heading into year two many expect the small forward to take some more strides forward as he looks to try and live up to the expectations that come with being a lottery selection. Buckley shares these expectations and, apparently, he believes he will become one of the best long-range snipers in the league:
"Aaron Nesmith won’t take a star turn this season. Other than some possible spot starts for injured players, he probably won’t open many contests, either. But his shooting stroke could grant him not-insignificant floor time, and if it’s as sharp as it can be, the 21-year-old could challenge the league’s best role-playing sharpshooters for three-point makes. Davis Bertans, Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes all cracked that 150-triple club, and none logged 1,700 minutes. Bertans and Forbes both played fewer than 1,500. Nesmith could get to that number by finding volume and efficiency with his outside shot. Knockdown snipers are among the best helpers for stars, and if he becomes one, he’ll help pull defensive attention away from Tatum and Brown. That’s reason enough to green-light the Vanderbilt product for regular minutes and all the three-point shots he can find."
Now listen, we absolutely agree with the consensus opinion that Aaron Nesmith will have a much more productive sophomore season than he did rookie, and even believe he could wind up being high up on the league’s shooting percentage list, specifically from 3-point range.
That said, when it comes to the number of attempts Buckley is boldly predicting the 21-year-old to have in year two, we find it to be a tad bit too bold.
The 150-plus club is one filled with either NBA All-Stars or high-profile role players who log serious minutes and play massive roles for their individual teams, both labels we do not anticipate Nesmith holding.
Yes, the article did go about and mention a few players in Bertans, Mills, and Forbes who all were in this aforementioned group despite seeing somewhat underwhelming minutes per game averages.
However, these three talents were unequivocally one of the top long-range shooters on their respective teams last season and, in turn, were utilized rather often in this department. On top of this, each of these players served as one of the more reliable scoring options on rather pedestrian offensive bench units.
Neither one of these aforementioned descriptions fits Nesmith’s situation heading into 2021-22, especially considering the fact that the bench scoring potential for the Boston Celtics looks to have gotten a whole lot better with the additions of Dennis Schroder and Enes Kanter coming aboard.
All things considered, though we certainly predict Aaron Nesmith will have an improved sophomore season, we don’t believe that he’ll receive the touches necessary to knock down 150-plus triples.