The first half of the schedule for the Boston Celtics includes a lot of travel, difficult initial matchups, easy but travel intensive second games on back-to-backs… oh, and not a lot of rest.
The Boston Celtics and, frankly as a whole, the NBA are almost back, and while jubilation fills the air with the birth of a new season, COVID-19 concerns still are a subject we cannot ignore.
Even though the league proved to be the model for sports during a pandemic, reverting to a non-bubble atmosphere will likely result in several canceled games, similar to what we’ve seen with the MLB, NFL, and college basketball.
As recently as last weekend, the Portland Trail Blazers closed their practice facilities after three staff members reported positive COVID-19 test results.
After forgoing summer league altogether, the Boston Celtics will have had an 86-day rest period until their first regular-season game. The NBA reduced travel for every team through these first 37 games of the season.
Peter Zanca took the time to break down the new travel circumstances for each team and found the Cs almost smack dab in the middle, with a 37 percent travel reduction compared to their past five seasons.
Comparing NBA teams' travel over the last 5 seasons to the schedule released today, it looks like the league has succeeded in substantially reducing travel for most teams, at least in the first half of the season. pic.twitter.com/b5NokQfgFq
— Peter Zanca (@Peter_Zanca) December 5, 2020
Despite this notable reduction, the Celtics still have a very travel intensive first-half of the season.
While they rank 12th in ESPN’s strength of schedule, they will be traveling the fourth most of any team in the league in total mileage. To put everything in perspective, the Cs of 2019-20 played ten games on zero days rest through 72 matches.
The Celtics of 2020-21 will play seven games on zero days rest through ONLY 38 games.
Before we dive headfirst into this season’s schedule, let’s revisit how the Celtics of last season dealt with their schedule’s various challenges. This team’s regular-season resilience was extremely underrated.
Projected to win 48 games (per ESPN) last season, they outperformed this number on pace to win 54 regular-season games.
2019-20 Boston Celtics
- 26-10 at home and 22-14 on the road
- 6-4 on the second night of back-to-back games (above league average)
- 5-3 on the second night of a back-to-back when the Celtics traveled
- 32-16 on one day’s rest
- 23-10 on 500+ mile travel games
- 11-2 on 1000+ mile travel games
- 6-2 on 1500+ mile travel games
- 6-1 with a rest advantage
- 4-4 with a rest disadvantage
- 6-4 involving at least one-time change
- 39,722 total miles traveled (10th highest )
Through 38 games the Celtics have:
- 7 back-to-back games (average)
- 19 home and 19 away games (average)
- 6 games with a rest advantage (below average)
- 9 with a rest disadvantage ( above average)
- 15 with 500+ miles traveled (above average)
- 5 with 1000+ miles traveled (above average)
- 20,155 total miles traveled (above average, 4th highest in the league)
- 12th hardest schedule (per ESPN)
- 5 back-to-back opponent games (below average, a good thing)
Alright, that was a lot of numbers.
Let us take a gander at the various stages of this year’s first half of the schedule. A few common themes to keep in mind: lots of travel, difficult initial matchups, easy but travel intensive second games on back-to-backs.
Oh, and one more thing… not a lot of rest.
The Eastern Conference Sampling
- 10 Games
- Level of Difficulty: Hard
- 4,686 miles traveled
- 2 back-to-backs
The new and improved Eastern Conference will make for a very competitive play-in tournament come playoff time.
This may be the best iteration of the East we’ve seen in the past 20 years in terms of top tier talent.
The Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks are two teams that massively improved throughout the offseason, both likely to obtain a playoff spot.
On the fringes of the playoff picture, there are many question mark teams — the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, and of course the ever mediocre Orlando Magic.
Yes, the “Tampa Bay” Raptors lost some depth during the offseason, and the Pacers and Heat stayed in neutral, but at the top, this will be a much harder Eastern Conference.
On a quick side note, the NBA could have likely utilized the series style opportunities to squeeze in these back-to-back games.
Think about it this way: what’s worse, travel + back-to-back or no travel + back-to-back?
I am sure there exists some mathematical reason for why this isn’t the case. Still, fewer back to back + travel games is a much more player-friendly outcome given the already tenuous task of traveling during a pandemic.
The Boston Celtics play precisely 50 percent of the Eastern Conference during their first ten games, including two separate series-style games in Detroit and Indianapolis.
They can make up ground with their two games against Detroit and a back-to-back home matchup against the Grizzlies. The likely Kemba-less Cs will face the top-tier Eastern Conference teams posing a problematic start to the season.
The Breath Catching Stage
- 10 Games
- Level of Difficulty: Easy
- 4,155 miles traveled
- 2 back-to-backs
Sit back and relax — well, at least sort of — as the Boston Celtics will play their most manageable chunk of the schedule during mid-January.
After a challenging first ten, the Cs can finally catch their breath with a four-game stretch against the Bulls, Magic (twice), and the Knicks, three of which come at home. One could also dub this the experimental stage as these matchups may allow this team to try out new wrinkles with their rotations.
Why not try and run the slow-footed Cavaliers out of the gym by playing Grant Williams at the center spot?
Why not experiment with a micro-ball Jayson Tatum at the five lineups for four minutes?
Why not revert to an old Brad Stevens classic and play four guards at a time?
All of the answers to these questions could become clearer during this newly dubbed experimental stage.
In the middle of this schedule are two series style games in Philadelphia, where the Celtics get their first look at the optimized, “Morey-ized” 76ers, a crucial two-game test for both teams.
Concluding the breath-catching stage, Boston will play three very winnable games in four nights against the Cavaliers, Bulls, and Spurs before returning home. The Celtics will have two back-to-back travel games, both involving exactly 852 miles of travel each way, both to and from Chicago.
The West Coast Voyage
- 10 Games
- Level of Difficulty: Very Hard
- 7,856 miles traveled
- 2 back-to-backs
After this needed breath-catching stage, the Boston Celtics will have their toughest six-game stretch during this first half of the schedule — the most challenging in both the travel and matchup department.
After getting a crack against the NBA champs at home, the Cs will embark on a five-game, eight-day Western Conference circuit, spanning 7,856 miles and touching down in three different states.
The West always comes with its series of surprises.
Last year, the Thunder and Grizzlies exceeded expectations. This year, the Suns and Warriors will be returning with improved rosters, both teams conceivably in the hunt for a playoff spot.
The most challenging part of this west coast voyage comes on the backend of this trip. Boston faces the improved Los Angeles Clippers with Luke Kennard and Serge Ibaka, a healthy Jazz team with Bojan Bogdanovic back, and the Chris Paul/ Devin Booker led Suns, three playoff-bound teams with lofty aspirations.
Last season’s team outperformed many of their Western Conference road matchups. If you included scrimmage and seeding games, last year’s Celtics team had an impressive 19-12 record against the always competitive West.
Once back, the Cs have opportunities to rebound if their Western Conference trip doesn’t go as planned. The Celtics will fly back to Boston and head into their longest home stretch of the season with five games in seven nights against a number of Eastern Conference, play-in tournament teams with a Denver Nuggets matchup sandwiched in between, another potential opportunity for the team to make up ground.
The Above Average Random Assortment
- 8 Games
- Level of Difficulty: Pretty Hard
- 3,462 miles traveled
- 1 back-to-back
On paper, the NBA talent spectrum is extremely well-distributed on a team-by-team basis.
It almost feels like every team except the Knicks, Thunder, and Cavaliers could be considered competitive heading into the 2020-21 season. Therefore, you could consider any team not named the Knicks, Thunder, and Cavaliers average, or perhaps even above average.
From late February through early March towards the All-Star-less game All-Star break, the Boston Celtics will have another assortment of average to above-average matchups.
Three southern contests on the road against three young and tenacious teams. The Cs will have their hands full with three games in four nights against the New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, and Atlanta Hawks.
On paper, for Boston, these are theoretical wins, but they should not take any of these games for granted.
The Hawks added much needed secondary scoring creation. The Mavericks added a number of defensive-minded wings to a historically good offense.
While on paper, they are likely the weakest of this group, the Pelicans still have a healthy Zion Williamson, a player who cooked the Cs last year with a 21 point 11 rebound performance in only 27 minutes.
It’s then back to the Garden with their second-longest home stretch as Boston has an uphill battle ahead of them.
Despite no back-to-backs, the Celtics get another dose of hungry, play-in-vying Eastern Conference teams coupled with their second Clippers matchup of the season.
Given the looming uncertainty of Kemba Walker’s injury status and general uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, expect a rough start to the season followed by several occasions to make up ground.