The Boston Celtics will hold the rights to three selections in this year’s draft. As history would suggest, perhaps they would be better off trading away the picks.
Over their past 20 seasons, like their entire 74 year existence, it’s been hard to say the Boston Celtics haven’t been a successful franchise. Sure, they’ve seen some hiccups along the way — winning 25 or less game in 2013-14 & 2006-07 and the whole Kyrie Irving debacle — but for the most part, over the past two decades the franchise has been synonymous with one granular word: winning.
Since the turn of the century they’ve been to two NBA Finals, won one in 2008, have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times, have won 45+ games 10 times and have recorded the second most postseason berths in the league.
Yup, for the better part of 20 seasons it’s clear that the C’s have not seen too much struggle… except, however, when it’s come to the NBA Draft.
Under Danny Ainge‘s regime the team has been, overall, lackluster when it comes to selecting rookie talents. His brilliance has translated into 47 total draft rights, but did not manage to translate into much draft success.
Sure he’s brought aboard some talented youngsters thanks in large to the deal that sent Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn — Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — but, for the most part, the team has proven to be underwhelming on the big night more often than not.
Heading into 2020’s draft Boston will hold the rights to three first round picks — the Memphis Grizzlies’, Milwaukee Bucks’ and their own. If the Houdini were calling the shots, we’d easily consider trading away some of the picks.
Here are three reasons why:
History suggests lack of talent at all three slots
If the draft were to be held tomorrow the Boston Celtics would hold the rights to the 17th (Memphis Grizzlies), 26th (their own) and 30th pick. Make no mistake about it, one of the most valuable assets for a franchise to have is draft capital, and the C’s have had plenty of that over the years — held the rights to 13 total selections since 2013.
However, if the history of these specific picks are any indicator, the likelihood of nabbing a franchise altering player is simply slim to none.
In regard to each of them, there have only been a handful of noteworthy players selected:
- 17: Jrue Holiday (2009), Jermaine O’Neal (1996), Shawn Kemp (1989)
- 26: Vlade Divac (1989)
- 30: Jimmy Butler (2011), David Lee (2005), Gilbert Arenas (2001), Spencer Haywood (1971)
Sure, there may have been a few players that slipped past our sights when looking upon the history of these picks, but — according to our list — eight players do not equate to good odds of adding on a truly solid talent to the franchise.
Let’s translate these numbers into percentage of success. Dating back to 1970, there have been 150 players selected from all three of these positions combined. If we use this time frame, that gives a team a .05 percent chance of actually drafting a player of note.
We get it; of course there have been great picks from later on in NBA Drafts — Alex English, Dennis Rodman, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and, as Celtics fans know, Reggie Lewis were all late picks and have become some of the greatest draft day steals in league history.
However, just because it’s a possibility that the C’s can draft a steal of a player, it doesn’t mean it’s likely (as my calculations would suggest).
There is a much greater possibility that a team in the midst of a rebuild could be intrigued by trading for one, two or even all three of Boston’s first round picks in 2020, and could offer a decent return package for them. Heck, even a team with a competent front office who has a solid track record in previous drafts could be interested in acquiring some of these assets.
Which brings us to our next point…
Danny Ainge has little success outside of the top-10
Yes, it’s true, General Manager & President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge has found solid success of late in regard to the NBA Draft:
2014, he nabbed current heart and soul of the team, Marcus Smart.
2016, he selected a key core piece and arguable 2020 All-Star snub, Jaylen Brown.
2017, he drafted face of the franchise and first time All-Star, Jayson Tatum
However, in regard to his entire tenure, we’ve seen the franchise flop on a draft pick more times than he’s struck gold.
Since accepting an executive front office position with the Boston Celtics in 2003, Danny Ainge has taken part in 17 different drafts, and has come away with 47 total picks, 26 of which were first rounders.
Of those 26 first rounders, five lasted four or more seasons with the franchise. Of those four, three managed to make turn themselves into integral parts of Boston’s rotation.
Truth be told, the main successes Ainge has found during the draft have all come within the top-10 selections. Smart was drafted ninth overall and both Brown and Tatum were selected third overall in their respective drafts.
Outside of the top-10, history shows that the C’s GM has struggle quite a bit.
We recently published an article discussing the 2016 draft — the last time they had three first round picks — and discussed how things played out for the team. As previously stated, yes, they certainly chose right when they took Jaylen Brown third overall. However, their other two selections?
Not so great.
At 16, the C’s opted to take French forward Guerschon Yabusele and, at 23 they nabbed Croatian center Ante Žižić.
Now, clearly, four year later and we see that both of these players are no longer a part of the team — Žižić, specifically, never even suited up for Boston.
Looking at this, one may want to argue that, at this point in the draft pickings are typically slim. People tend to be under the perception that talent runs off as the picks go on.
And, while this is a relatively true statement, in regard to 2016 there were still a plethora of talents who are currently contributing and, some even thriving, with their current team that Danny Ainge could have very realistically selected:
- Caris LeVert — selected 20th overall
- Pascal Siakam — selected 27th overall
- Dejounte Murray — selected 29th overall
Of the players the Boston Celtics have selected outside of the top-10 since 2003, who has been their best player? Al Jefferson? Terry Rozier?
Sure, these are two players who proved to be solid NBA players, but let’s look at some of the other selections the franchise has made later on in drafts:
- R.J. Hunter (28th overall in 2015)
- James Young (17th overall in 2014)
- Fab Melo (22nd overall in 2012)
- J.R. Giddens (30th overall in 2008)
The list goes on and on.
If slide one wasn’t an indicator that Boston should look into trading their draft rights in 2020, this one should certainly push the needle in that direction.
Our third and final slide, however, is simply just the cherry on top of this idea to trade their picks.
Could acquire return package to help Boston win now
We’ve been talking about this for some time: ideas for offseason trades.
The Boston Celtics are in an envious situation. They consist of a roster who’s average age is hovering around 24 years old — which is one of the youngest in the association — yet they are still serious threats in the east to represent the conference in the NBA Finals as soon as this season (assuming the league eventually resumes).
All year, it has been oft covered that one of the biggest weaknesses on the team is at their pivot spot. Currently, their starting five is Daniel Theis, a player who, though has surprised many throughout the 2019-20 campaign, is not a dominant presence at the pivot by any means.
Behind him, the rotation thins out quite a bit. The defensive liability Enes Kanter has served as Theis’ primary backup while Robert Williams — who missed significant time this year due to injury — finds himself in the mix for defensive purposes.
Combined, this trio has the makings of everything a team should want at the center spot: a floor spacing big (Theis) who can feast in the paint on offense (Kanter) and protect the rim on defense (Williams).
Unfortunately for the C’s there is no device that can morph these players into one, thus leaving the team with a well known fact: Boston needs to find a permanent answer at the five.
Sure, we’ve discussed on numerous occasions big men in this upcoming draft who could serve as a potential answer at the position at some point down the road: specifically, I’ve suggested Jalen Smith as this player.
However, I’ll bring us back to my earlier statement: the Celtics are in an envious situation where they seemingly have a long & bright future while also having the capability of winning right now.
Sure, the way of the draft could theoretically make their future prospects stronger but, with the fact that the player(s) selected will need time to develop, the team could see their current championship window close subtly as their key veterans — Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart and Gordon Hayward — get older throughout the year.
If only there were some way the team could add a player who fits their current situation of competing now as well as down the road!
(he says with a clear answer in mind)
Ahh yes, Boston could, theoretically, look into acquiring Orlando Magic center Mo Bamba.
At just 21 years old, the former sixth overall pick in 2018 finds himself in an odd situation in the Sunshine State. Despite solid play, minutes have been tough to come by for the 7-0 center due to the fact that he plays the same position as current face of the franchise, and lone star Nikola Vučević.
Through 60 games played in 2019-20 (zero starts) Bamba finds himself averaging 5.5 points, five rebounds and 1.4 blocks on 47 percent shooting from the floor and 36 percent shooting from deep in just 14.5 minutes per game.
Eye popping? Not exactly.
However, when looking at these numbers in per-36 minutes conversations, the young big boasts averages of 13.8 points, 16.8 rebounds and a whopping 3.5 blocks per game.
Now look, I get it, per-36 numbers are tricky and you cannot perceive these numbers as fact should they actually log 36 minutes a game. Still, it must be stated that during the four games Bamba received 20-29 minutes this season, he finds himself averaging a solid 10 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game on 51 percent shooting from the field and a stupendous 70 percent shooting from downtown!
Mo Bamba’s lack of playing time during his professional career has not been indicative of his play but, rather, the fact that he finds himself on the same team as an All-Star as the same position.
It’s quite apparent Orlando seems set on continuing to bestow 30 plus minutes a night to Vučević, as they re-signed him to a lofty four year, $100 million deal last season. With this in mind, perhaps it would be wise of the team to look to shop the talented Bamba for a sizable return to better fill out their roster.
It might even be a wiser decision for the Boston Celtics to package together their picks in a deal to bring aboard a big who could strengthen their center rotation for both the present and the future.