A Statistical Look at Jaylen Brown’s Rookie Season
By Donnie Menke
How Jaylen Brown has fared in his first year in the NBA from a statistical view.
On June 23rd, 2016, the Celtics selected Cal SF Jaylen Brown with the 3rd overall pick in the draft. Many people questioned the selection at the time, Brown’s game did not seem to mesh well with what the C’s already had.
He wasn’t a great 3-point shooter (29.4% in his only season) or a great facilitator (2.0 assists). There were also questions about his feel for the game.
With the playoffs here, it’s time to take a look back at how Brown’s rookie year progressed, where he surprised, and where he may have disappointed.
For the season Brown averaged a respectable 6.6 points per game on 45.4% from the field and 34.1% from three while playing 17.1 minutes a game. He also grabbed 2.8 rebounds and dished out 0.8 assists.
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Given his college numbers, his 3-point shooting was a nice surprise. As the season wore on, it looked more and more like his shooting at Cal was because of the offense, not Brown’s mechanics.
Early Season Numbers
In his first few games, Brown looked the part of a promising rookie. He averaged 8.0 PPG in his three October games, while shooting nearly 60% from the field. He also shot 80% from the foul line.
However, November and December did go his way. In November, Brown only averaged 4.6 PPG on 37.9% shooting and only shot 50% from the line. November also saw Brown’s worst PIE (Player Impact Estimate) number of the season, only contributing 4.8% of the team’s overall numbers.
December was Brown’s second worst month in terms of player impact, only contributing 6.4%. Brown also only averaged 4.7 PPG, just a slight uptick from November.
Turning it Around
While these two months were clearly difficult for Brown from a statistical point of view, these were by far his worst two months.
From January through the end of the season, Brown would average at least 6.0 PPG. His worst PPG in 2017 was January, when he averaged 6.2 PPG.
Brown’s PIE also increased from 6.4 to 6.7, and wouldn’t fall lower than that through the end of the year. Brown also grabbed 3.8 rebounds a game, compared to just 1.5 in December, and got more minutes from Brad Stevens, getting 16.4 compared to 12.9.
While January was an improvement in almost every statistical category, February is when Brown really took off, particularly after the All-Star break.
In February, Brown had his best month of the season, averaging 10.4 PPG while shooting 49.2% overall and 45.5% from three. Brown also managed to average nearly four rebounds a game while playing over 25 minutes a night. Brown also posted a positive net rating of 1.3 with an effective field goal percentage of 57.1%. His PIE also increased to 8.6% and true shooting percentage of 60.6%.
Post All-Star Break and Strong Finish
While Brown wouldn’t reach 10 PPG in either March or April, it doesn’t mean he didn’t finish strong.
After turning down an invite to the Dunk Contest all-star weekend, Brown averaged 8.6 PPG after the break compared to just 5.7 before it.
Nearly all of Brown’s numbers improved after the all-star break, including rebounds, shooting percentage, three point percentage, assists and steals.
Not only did Brown’s numbers go up for traditional stats, they also went up for advanced metrics too. Brown’s assist percentage, true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, assist/turnover ratio and PIE all increased.
In March and April, Brown averaged 7.8 and 8.0 PPG respectively.
Also in March, Brown continued to rebound well, grabbing 3.8 a game, while posting a PIE of 7.9%, an effective field goal percentage of 55.0% and a true shooting percentage of 56%.
Brown put the finishing touches on a solid rookie year in April, posting a net rating of +10.2. Brown also shot 45% from the field and 37.5% from three. He also posted a PIE of 6.8% and 1.2 assists a game.
Looking Ahead
While Brown certainly did not have a ROY level season, he still showed flashes of potential that made Boston fans salivate over what he might become. He also managed to earn the trust of Brad Stevens at a critical time in the season, when the Celtics were trying to catch Cleveland for the one seed while also trying to fend off the Raptors and Wizards.
Brown also managed to put to rest some the concerns about his shooting, making a respectable 34.1% of his threes, especially for a rookie.
Brown oozes potential with his combination of athleticism, ability to learn and large frame. Only time will tell if he can develop into an all-star or reach his full potential. But all the signs are pointing in the right direction for him to get there, and it should be a fun ride.
Next: Why Jaylen Brown Hasn't Played Much vs Bulls
*College Stats courtesy of sports-reference. For more stats visit http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jaylen-brown-1.html
*NBA Stats courtesy of NBA.com. For more stats visit http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/1627759/traditional/?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PTS&dir=1