Do the Boston Celtics Overvalue Terry Rozier
The Boston Celtics passed on Serge Ibaka, in order to hold onto Terry Rozier
The Toronto Raptors have made the first big move prior to the trade deadline, acquiring Serge Ibaka for Terrance Ross and a first round pick (via Celtics Blog). It has been no secret that the Orlando Magic have been shopping any player currently on their roster, and on an expiring contract, Ibaka was the prime suspect. The Raptors filled the biggest hole on their team, while also preventing the Boston Celtics from getting him themselves.
The Celtics could certainly use Ibaka’s rim protection and rebounding, and it has been reported that the Celtics were in serious talks with the Magic about Ibaka. Unfortunately, they could not come up with a better offer, with the apparent tipping point being Boston’s desire to hold onto Terry Rozier (Via Celtics Blog).
Theoretically, the Celtics would have mirrored the Raptors’ deal, by sending Rozier along with one of their later first round picks. Once again, the Celtics made it clear that they are keeping the long term future in mind, and were not willing to sacrifice two assets for a player who is a free agent this offseason.
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The question then rises, should the Celtics have dealt Rozier and a first for Ibaka. There is no doubting that the Celtics would be better off with Ibaka playing alongside Al Horford. Their interior defense would become a force in the league, and they would no longer be as undersized as they were with Amir Johnson. Having him move to the bench would also finally give them another big to pair with Kelly Olynyk.
Ibaka could potentially help the Celtics mask and overcome some of their defenisve limitations, and he has the potential to stretch the floor a lot better than Johnson too.
One factor that could have been the difference maker for the Celtics was the apparent decline of Ibaka. He seems to have fallen off from his prime over the last two seasons, and the Celtics value Rozier for a lot more than the player he is right now. Rozier is one of the worst shooters in the league and is wild on offense. He can have an impact on defense, but not consistently yet. Even if Ibaka’s defense is no longer as great as it once was, Rozier’s impact would not compare to his this season.
The Celtics still have young point guards for their future, and they simply do not have any options that can replicate what Ibaka could offer. For what he is right now, the Celtics certainly overvalued Rozier. Even if there is no guarantee beyond this season, these are the kind of trades that are necessary to compete with teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers, who still have far superior talent.
That being said, just because Rozier was overvalued for the player he is right now, that does not mean it was a good trade. The biggest issue is whether or not Ibaka would be the difference in getting them over the Cavaliers. While that may be the case while they are without Kevin Love, it is far too much of a longshot to expect Ibaka to be the difference that gets them to the NBA Finals. Time and time again the Celtics have been patient and have always kept the future in mind, and it should come as no surprise that was once again the case with Ibaka.
Even if the Celtics do not have enough room on their roster to accommodate all their guards in the future. Rozier is an important option. The Celtics will not be able to pay all the guards on their team, and Rozier is a player they feel can grow into a solid rotation player in the future.
There is also the issue that the Celtics could be thinking about saving Rozier for a bigger trade. Rozier is one of their most intriguing young players on the team, and the Celtics are likely to want him to be a part of any big trade considering the depth they have in their back court.
The Celtics are beyond the point where they have too many assets to use. They already have two players overseas right now, and trading for Ibaka also could have offered an opportunity to get better now, while eliminating some of the clutter with secondary assets.
Fortunately, there still is time for the Celtics to make a move happen, and they will have another opportunity in the offseason. With the strength of the Western Conference and the Cavaliers, it is hard to imagine any trade giving the Celtics the talent they need to be at that level. They can continue to be patient, allow their talent to develop and establish the greatest possible chemistry with this roster, while avoiding making a trade for any rent-a-player.
The future will continue to be the priority. Unlike other teams, the Celtics are not in a closing window. They are in a position to be the most improved team for each of the next three seasons, and they do not need to force anything, simply because there is a good chance at catching the Cavaliers this season.
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Ainge will always be listening, and searching for trades where he can get the best value. Ibaka is not the kind of player that can truly push this team over the edge. He helps in a lot of ways but there is usually an adjustment period with the new team. Their odds of catching the Cavaliers do not increase enough by adding Ibaka, for it to be worth sacrificing the future for a player that could walk after half a season, in search for a max contract the Celtics will not be willing to give.