Ball Security Needs to Be a Priority for the Boston Celtics

Ball Security will once again prove to be vital for the Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics did a great job of masking their poor shooting with a high quantity of offensive opportunities last season. One of the most important things for them was preserving the opportunities they did get by avoiding turnovers. One of the most remarkable aspects of Isaiah Thomas‘ season was his low turnover rate was, and it is a great indication of how well he kept the ball moving.

If the Celtics want to improve their offense then they cannot afford to start turning the ball over, and if their shooting efficiency can improve then they may even be able to cut down the turnovers. The Celtics had the fifth best assist to turnover ratio last year and that may be the most impressive aspect of their offense.

For all the poor shooting and forced possessions, the Celtics were never too clumsy with the ball, and turnovers proved to be their biggest advantage over any team on both ends of the court. Thomas lead the way last season and he should continue to do that this season. The question mark comes with Evan Turner‘s replacement.

With more than twice as many assists per game as turnovers per game, Turner did a great job of maintaining the ball security when Thomas was off the court. He found ways to make sure the Celtics were not throwing away their opportunities, and it may take time for Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier to understand how to be that secure with the ball while continuing to push the pace.

Per 36 minutes, Smart had one less turnover per game than Turner last year and that was one area he was improved in from his rookie year. Smart saw his turnover percentage drop from 14.4% to 11.7% and that was with his usage rate increasing from 15.1% to 17.4%. Smart never became a factor shooting the ball, but ball security was never an issue for him, he just needs to prove he can maintain that with the ball in his hands more often.

Rozier did not play enough minutes to gauge his ball security based on last season’s statistics, but he did show promise in college. As the primary ball handler and volume scorer on Louisville, Rozier managed to keep his turnover percentage at just 11.6%. He has handled that responsibility before, but things will be different when he is leading the incredibly fast paced Celtics.

Ball movement has been essential to the Celtics, and now that their shooting should start to improve, ball movement will be the key to unlocking their offensive potential that was no where near realized last season. They have proven that they can generate enough opportunities and they use great ball movement to ensure they are quality opportunities. If they do not regress with how they protect the ball on offense, then their shooting could quickly turn them into one of the strongest offenses in the league.

Even if Smart and Rozier are able to protect the ball properly, the responsibility does not fall strictly on their guards. Both Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk are expected to be two of the biggest factors on offense and they need to help make sure that they properly move the ball as a unit.

Horford’s career assists per game of 2.7 suggests he will be a willing passer, and with turnover percentages of 8.9 and 8.8 over the last two seasons, there is no reason to worry that Horford will threaten their ball security. He has established himself as a trusted offensive player and even if he is not a ball handler, Stevens will continually look to run the offense through him without fear of turning it over too much.

On the second unit, Olynyk could look to take a similar kind of role. Olynyk has never been able to generate assists and while he has not been as safe with the ball as Horford, he has established a level of trust. He has steadily seen his turnover rate decrease through his career, starting at 16.0 as a rookie which was brought all the way down to 10.8 last season.

The Celtics have leaned far too heavily on their guards for offensive production, but it has allowed them to establish that phenomenal assists to turnover ratio. Expanding the responsibility of their bigs in their offense completely expands how they can attack, but that means trusting players who are not ball handlers to maintain the great ball security of their guards.

Losing Turner may make some sort of regression inevitable, but if they want to see their offense improve this year, they cannot start turning the ball over more. Their poor shooting takes away far too many opportunities as is and if they start throwing more away with turnovers, they will never be able to establish themselves on the offensive end the way they need to in order to be true contenders in the eastern conference.

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It may take time before the new ball handlers on the second unit get comfortable enough, and there may be an adjustment period for Horford. That being said, there is reason to have faith in the players that are taking on the responsibility, and they are being put in a great position to maintain Stevens’ phenomenal offensive system which cannot function without proper ball movement.