Boston Celtics Position Battle: Jerebko vs Zeller

Looking into who deserves more playing time this season, Jonas Jerebko or Tyler Zeller

While Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko do not traditionally play the same position, the Boston Celtics play with a lot of position fluidity in their front court, and the two fringe rotation players will certainly be in competition for playing time. The Celtics made active decisions to hang onto both of them this offseason, but that does not necessarily mean they will be getting a significant role.

Now that some of the clutter from last season has been alleviated, there should be more consistent roles in the front court. The problem is that even without Jared Sullinger in the picture, there will not be enough minutes for the likes of Jerebko and Zeller to be comfortable in the rotation at the same time.

Right now, the edge would have to be given to Jerebko, and that is largely based on the disastrous season Zeller had last year. It came as a bit of a shock to see the Celtics bring back Zeller after the total regression on both ends last year. That does, however, reveal that they still believe in his potential, and it is easy to forget how promising Zeller was for the Celtics just two seasons ago.

The best thing that Zeller has going for him is the potential. While Jerebko has established himself and has given the Celtics a good understanding of what he is capable of, everything is still up in the air with Zeller. He has shown flashes of solid rebounding potential, has been dominant in the mid range game and can really only get better on the defensive end.

That being said, Zeller has a lot of work ahead of him if he wants to surpass the role that Jerebko should be getting this season. Jerebko is a 40% three point shooter, while holding his own on the boards and on the defensive end. That being said, the only real edge that Jerebko gets is the three point shooting. His defense and he rebounding is not good enough to suggest that would earn him playing time independent of his shooting.

Zeller finds himself in a difficult position considering how important three point shooting is to the Celtics this year. They need to be vastly improved in that area, they need to establish consistency and reliability shooting the ball, and Jerebko was better than everyone except Kelly Olynyk when it comes to three point percentage.

If Zeller can prove that he can return to the way he played two years ago, then things could be interesting between these two. While Jerebko is one of the only consistent thre point shooters on the team, Zeller was flat out the most efficient mid range shooter they had two seasons ago, and it really wasn’t close.

Shooting 60% from between 10-16 feet would give the Celtics a phenomenal weapon if he can prove to maintain that efficiency at higher volume. Zeller was a trusted finisher that year, but was too tentative to reach the kind of potential shooting that well can achieve.

Of course, everything with Zeller is predicated on him proving that last year was a true anomaly. He shot poorly across the board and was torched any time a defense attacked him. his rebounding percentage plummeted, and he struggled to find any area that he could be a positive contributor in.

Jerebko, on the other hand, excelled with three point shooting, while avoiding becoming a liability in any area. Throw in that Jerebko has maintained this play for two seasons now, and things do not look promising for Zeller this season. Shooting has been a constant with Jerebko, and that cannot be ignored by the Celtics.

Zeller is still young enough that the Celtics hold onto hope for his potential, but with their elevated expectations, it’s hard to imagine Zeller doing enough to deserve a bigger role that Jerebko. The Celtics already have Horford, Johnson and Olynyk clearly ahead of both of them in the rotation. Throw in the fact that Ben Bentil and Jordan Mickey will also be looking for a role, and there really is no room for the Celtics to accommodate a liability like Zeller was last season.

The Celtics know that Jerebko will not be a liability. He provides serviceable depth and has better position versatility. While Zeller could get time at the four or the five, Jerebko could theoretically play any front court position.

Right now the Celtics’ biggest need is shooting, and that could work in the favor of both these players. Jerebko has proven he can excel as a three point shooter and Zeller has done the same in the mid range game. With unbearably inconsistent shooters in Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier making up the back court, the Celtics need players they can trust to hit open shots with the second unit.

Rozier and Smart will do wonders in terms of generating opportunities. Both of them play with the energy needed to generate turnovers and they both play with the aggressiveness that increases the pace and volume of opportunities. If the Celtics can put reliable shooters around those two guards then the second unit can be successful on the offensive end.

If Zeller can prove to be that trusted shooter the Celtics thought he once was, then any regression from Jerebko could see him fall behind on the depth chart. Jerebko has seen inferior contributions get minutes ahead of him in the past and that makes it absolutely essential that he maintains any edge he can get.

Without the same kind of high end potential that can be achieved through development, there is no sense in the Celtics playing Jerebko over Zeller if Zeller can be as impactful on the offensive end. Playing time could help Zeller tremendously in a way that does not apply to Jerebko.

As it stands now Jerebko should be way ahead of Zeller in the rotation. He is more impactful on both ends and Zeller has a long ways to go before he can establish the kind of trust that Jerebko has established. That being said, Zeller still has plenty of time to show the Celtics what they need to see before giving him the kind of role he had two seasons ago, where he averaged over 20 minutes per game and put up 17.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per 36 minutes.

As good and consistent as Jerebko has been, he is yet to score over 14 points per 36 minutes and has peaked at 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes for the Celtics. Statistically, the best Zeller has given the Celtics could be seen as slightly more impactful than the best Jerebko has been given.

Advanced statistics also favor Zeller, who posted a higher win shares per 48 minutes, a higher VORP (value over replacement player) and a higher box plus minus in their respective best seasons with the Celtics. Its easy to forget after last year, but before the acquisition of Isaiah Thomas, it was not too far of a stretch to say Zeller was one of the best players on the team. It did not take long for him to be replaced, but he has opened up the last two seasons as the opening day starter.

Next: Will Jonas Jerebko Remain an Odd Man Out?

Both of these players have an opportunity to increase their role from a season ago, but it will not be easy. The front court remains incredibly unsettled, particularly with the second unit, and both of these players will be looking to be one of the top front court options off the bench.