This Could be Kelly Olynyk’s Last Year With Boston

Could Kelly Olynyk be on his way out after this season?

It seems somewhat ironic that I’m writing this article. Just a week ago, Kelly Olynyk was one of four known players in the Hamptons with the Boston Celtics front office trying to convince Kevin Durant to come to Boston. Now, when looking ahead to this upcoming season and next summer, the future for Olynyk with Boston is foggy.

The Celtics picked up his rookie option for the second time this year, meaning he’s set to hit the open market next summer. Boston will likely extend him a $4.2 million qualifying offer next off-season, however, with the cap going up even more, it’s doubtful Olynyk would settle for that type of money. With that being said, unless the Celtics sign Olynyk to an extension this season, he’ll likely be on a different team in 2017-18.

After this off-season, it’s clear that Danny Ainge was less than pleased with their front court last season. It’s hard not to be when looking at the little production they gave.

Jared Sullinger and Olynyk were the only players to average double-figures in points, but both barely reached 10 per game – Sullinger (10.3 PPG), Olynyk (10 PPG). Both players also shot well under 50 percent from the field, making Amir Johnson the lone player on the team who shot 50 percent or better. Also, the lack of a consistent inside game is a reason why Sullinger is unlikely to return, and why Boston experienced another first round exit.

That’s why the addition of Al Horford is considered one of the best signings this off-season. Ainge’s displeasure with the Celtics front court is also a driving factor behind drafting Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic in the first round, and Ben Bentil in the second round. While maybe not for this year, it gives the Celtics options in the future.

Not to mention that they also have Jordan Mickey on a rookie deal, and Ainge has come out and said that they’re still in the market for another front court player to play alongside Horford.

Maybe Ainge isn’t able to strike up a deal right away, however, he’s always active at the deadline and will be pushing hard to land another star via free agency next off-season, as well. It also shows that Ainge doesn’t believe they have a starting caliber power forward on their roster, right now. Therefore, the Celtics will have a crowded front court of young players looking for minutes next year, and no quality power forward next to Horford, making Olynyk more than dispensable.

Even with Olynyk being a restricted free agent next summer, if the Celtics extend a qualifying offer, it’s unlikely they’ll match another team’s offer sheet. For one, with the salary cap expected to be set at $102 million instead of $107 million, it changes the Celtics plans. Luckily they still have enough to sign a player to a max contract, but it changes how much they can spend on role players.

With landing another star being their main goal, where does that leave Olynyk? Teams will definitely be calling him next summer offering him more than Boston is willing to. He’s shown a lot of improvement over his four-years and is a quality three-point shooting big off the bench who adds size. A young, seven-footer whose game still has room to grow will be very enticing for teams around the league.

Not to mention that big men were getting ridiculous amounts this off-season, and with the cap increasing next summer, it will likely be most of the same. With Olynyk likely receiving $12-$15 million next off-season, it’s hard to imagine the Celtics matching an offer sheet around the $15 million range. Plus, teams showed they weren’t afraid to overspend on young players – specifically the Brooklyn Nets paying Tyler Johnson $12.5 million annually after only 68 careers games in two seasons.

As previously noted, Yabusele, Zizic and Bentil all have potential to be solid role players in the NBA. With the impressive summer’s Yabusele and Bentil have put together, it’s possible they could be a major part of the rotation next season. Also, if Mickey has a successful second-year, he’s a better fit alongside Horford.

Besides, this is Olynyk’s first chance to get paid, so he’ll try to get the most money he can on a long-term deal. Even with the increase in the cap, Boston doesn’t want to be financially tied up to a backup, because as good as Olynyk is, he’s not a starter. In fact, I don’t think he and Horford are a great fit together.

With Horford adding a three-point shot to his game, he plays on the perimeter more often. He is still effective in the paint, although, the Celtics will be able to utilize him best when they can run their offense through him.

It’s not to say that he and Olynyk could never play together, but it will quickly become very congested on the perimeter with all the three-point shooters Boston has. Therefore, there won’t be great spacing or Horford will be used inside more often.

Despite Olynyk shooting an impressive 40.5 percent from three last season, he doesn’t do much else. He’s not a great defender, and was mostly a catch-and-shoot target for the Celtics last season – 95.3 percent of his made threes were assisted on. Olynyk would occasionally try to take his man off the dribble, but that’s not what he’s known for.

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Even though he’s a modern-day big man, paying him substantial money seems silly when he’s destined for a career off the bench if he stays in Boston.

When it comes down to it, barring a major injury that ruins Olynyk’s stock, this is likely his last year with Boston. Even if he puts together a Sixth Man of the Year caliber season, that would likely make his exit even more inevitable as his stock would rise to an all-time high, like Turner’s did this year. Ainge proved he didn’t want to give a bench player huge money, or jeopardize his run at a star, when he let Evan Turner leave for Portland.

With Turner being a huge part of the rotation last season, it says a lot about Ainge’s determination to build around stars since he let their sixth man walk. Olynyk is an important part of their team, but he’s not irreplaceable. The Celtics are replacing their sixth man this year, and it’s not crazy to think they do the same thing again next year.

Olynyk provided the Celtics with consistent three-point shooting last season, and was the biggest offensive catalyst off the bench. Although, with not being a great fit with a franchise player on the court – Al Horford – and likely attracting a big multi-year contract, it makes it hard to believe Olynyk will be with Boston more than one season.

With another high draft pick that will likely be selected on a big, a free agent class that Ainge is already drooling over and the possibility of a trade, paying Olynyk is far from the top of Ainge’s list.

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He’ll likely treat the Olynyk situation the same way he’s treating Sullinger, who was a starter last season. If he wants to come back on a smaller deal then Boston will find room, but it seems silly to spend big money on role players in a star-driven league.