Who has More Potential: Marcus Smart or Terry Rozier?

Does Terry Rozier actually have more potential than Marcus Smart?

Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier have had very different starts to their respective careers. On one hand, Smart was the sixth overall pick in 2014, with a lot of high hopes surrounding his selection. He was seen as the heir to Rajon Rondo when drafted out of Oklahoma State as a sophomore. Many people saw him as the future franchise point guard, ushering in a new era for Boston Celtics basketball.

On the other hand, the reaction towards Terry Rozier’s selection was the polar opposite. Even though the Celtics drafted him outside of the lottery, with the 16th pick, there was a lot of criticism towards the selection. He was coming off a very successful sophomore season at Louisville, however there were doubts about him being an effective NBA player.

Just one year later, a season in which Rozier didn’t significant playing time until the end of the season, it’s safe to say Rozier wasn’t a reach in last year’s draft. In fact, you can make the argument that Rozier actually holds more potential and trade value than Smart, who was selected 10 picks higher in the previous draft.

Just 11 days younger, Rozier has yet to experience the same amount of playing time as Smart. In Smart’s first two seasons, he’s played in at least 60 games both years and has seen 27.1 minutes per game. That’s a big difference to Rozier’s rookie season where he appeared in less than half the games (39) and only for eight minutes per night.

Despite the lack of playing time in the regular season, Rozier has flashed multiple signs during the end of the season, postseason and first couple of games during Summer League play that suggests he has a chance to end up being a better point guard than Smart.

Defensively, Smart is matched by only a select few. He’s already one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, and it’s no secret that his 27 minutes per night come from his ability on that end. Not to mention that he’s coming off two seasons where he averaged 1.5 steals per game and two steals per 36 minutes in each.

While those numbers are extremely impressive for a third-year guard, he is still developing. Smart has a chance to be known as one of the best defensive specialists off the bench in a couple of years.

He has already received votes to be on the All-Defensive Teams, but needs to continue to build his notoriety around the league before being recognized for his work on the defensive end. Therefore, it’s hard to imagine Rozier being able to match his defensive output, but I wouldn’t put it beyond him.

Despite failing to force many turnovers as a rookie – six steals in 311 minutes – his play in college is a telling sign that he is more than capable of being an NBA defender. As a sophomore, he averaged two steals per contest. While it’s not the 2.9 steals per game Smart posted in his two seasons with the Cowboys, it’s impressive nonetheless.

Like previously noted, no one is expecting him to reach Smart’s level on that end, but Rozier did show signs of being a solid defender as a rookie and will become a better ball hawk as his career progresses. Just like Smart, Rozier’s bigger build allows him to battle in the paint on defense and not get bullied, while also being quick enough to guard the perimeter.

Not to mention that he’s also learning behind Smart, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder. He’ll have the same lessons on that end as Smart did, especially since they have similar builds.

Along with defense, Rozier’s big build is a big reason why he has the potential to become one of the best rebounding guards in the NBA. Due to the small amount of minutes he received, it was easy to overlook Rozier’s impact on the glass. He only averaged 1.6 rebounds per game as a rookie, however, when digging deeper, it’s very impressive when noting his 7.3 per 36 minutes mark.

Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports /

To put it in perspective, Russell Westbrook was the only guard to average more than 7.3 rebounds per game. Also, Nicolas Batum and James Harden – second and third in RPG among guards – both finished with 6.3 rebounds per game, however, Batum only grabbed 6.3 rebounds per 36 minutes and Harden only pulled down 5.8.

In fact, Rozier was easily the most efficient rebounding guard on team last season, as well, and matched the rebounding output of All-Star center Marc Gasol. Rozier has a chance to be in impressive company if he’s able to duplicate this output in a bigger role.

More playing time might be what Rozier needs. In his two lone games in which he played 20-to-30 minutes (20.8 MPG), Rozier pulled down six rebounds per night. Obviously it’s a very small sample size but it shows what he’s capable of. Not to mention that the 6’2″ point guard led the Summer League team in rebounds in their first game.

It’s easy to rave over the analytics of Rozier’s rebounding, however he’s yet to show if he’s able to back it up every night. While that’s not his fault, Smart has had the opportunity to show why he’s also considered a very good rebounding guard. Smart increased his rebounding production to 4.2 per game in the regular season last year, and 4.5 in the postseason.

He’s a very consistent contributor on the glass, and we’ve been able to see him do it consistently while everything Rozier has done is mere speculation for the most part. Still, there’s no denying Rozier has an act for rebounding. Either way, both are very good rebounding guards, but it’s hard not to love the little Rozier has shown.

While they both have their specific niches, the offensive end is why Rozier holds more untapped potential than Smart.

It’s no secret that Smart has struggled with his three-point shot early in his career. His three-point percentage somehow dipped from his atrocious 33.5 percent as a rookie to 25.3 percent last season. Although it improved in the playoffs (34.4 percent), you’d be hard-pressed to think Smart will ever be able to develop a consistent outside shot. To make matters worse, he continues to insist on taking multiple threes per game.

In the regular season, he attempted 2.7 per night, and it went up to 5.3 per game in the playoffs. Those are very concerning numbers when also considering 51 percent of his career shots have been threes. To be fair, he did get into the lane 11.5 percent more in his second season, but that’s somewhat false hope when watching him play.

There’s no doubt Smart has the ability to get into the lane. While he doesn’t own the explosiveness of some guards, and doesn’t finish as well as Isaiah Thomas, he has shot an impressive 52.9 percent inside of three feet in his career. Still, that doesn’t carry much weight if he’s not willing to make that the focal point of his offensive game.

As far as Rozier, he wasn’t much better shooting from the outside. He’s never been consistent from behind the arc and his 22.2 three-point percentage as a rookie backs it up. Still, more consistent playing will help him get into more of a rhythm on offense, which was showcased in the postseason.

When Rozier saw 19.8 minutes per game in the playoffs, his three-point percentage improved to 36.4 percent. While still not overly-impressive, it shows some potential for a decent outside shot is there, and besides, he doesn’t rely on it as much as Smart does.

Rozier’s shot distribution was a lot more even, and he’s also a better pure point guard, in my opinion. There’s a reason why the Celtics no longer view him as their future franchise point guard, and it’s not all because of Thomas.

More from Hardwood Houdini

Besides, Smart played 57 percent of his minutes at shooting guard last season and even saw time as a small forward. On the other hand, Rozier has led the Summer League team in assists in their first two games.

Obviously it’s against lesser competition, and his regular season is a smaller sampler size, but he did top Smart in assists per 36 minutes and assist percentage last season.

When it comes down to it, Smart will end up like Tony Allen if he doesn’t improve on offense. We know what he can do on the defensive end, however consistently throwing up bricks will eventually force Brad Stevens to reduce his playing time. Unless he starts attacking the basket more, which he’s effective when doing so, it’s hard to imagine anything more than his poor production.

Also, with Rozier expected to see a much bigger role this upcoming season, we’ll finally be able to see if his per 36 minutes averages were hype or the real deal. He looks like a man among boys in Summer League thus far, and his spin move to get by defenders could be a valuable tool in his second year.

Rozier is more of a mystery since he hasn’t seen as much playing time. After all the criticism Danny Ainge took for drafting him, though, it’s not crazy to say he has more potential than Smart. In fact, he could be seen as a more valuable trade piece, as well.

Next: Al Horford Must be Aggressive for Celtics

Smart has a higher floor because he’ll be a defensive anchor no matter what, but it’s hard to project anything more after watching him for 27 minutes a night over two seasons. Next year will be very important when trying to determine their futures.

Home/Celtics News