Celtics: Is Dragan Bender Worth the Risk?

Dragan Bender is considered the third best prospect in this year’s draft, but is he worth the risk?

After Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, the rest of the draft class is up for debate. You can make the case for numerous players to be considered the third best prospect in this year’s draft. In fact, the Boston Celtics have more options than most teams do when picking third. As well as having options with the third pick, the Celtics have as much flexibility as any team this year – owning eight draft picks.

It’s both a good and bad thing to own as many draft picks as they do, and it adds a new aspect to who they should draft third overall. On one hand, going the safer route and drafting a shooter like Buddy Hield or Jamal Murray would help them a lot next season, however, many people believe that Dragan Bender is the right choice.

The seven-foot Croatian is just 18-years-old and doesn’t have as much experience as most college players entering the draft. He started just three of his 38 games with Maccabi Tel Aviv last season and only played in 12.9 minutes per game. He doesn’t have much experience under his belt but that hasn’t stopped people from labeling him as possibly the best player in the draft – he ranks eighth on my big board.

It’s intriguing to have a seven-footer who has the potential to be a dominant three-point shooter. While Bender has the potential, he is far from reaching that title though as he only shot 33.8 percent from three and 42.3 percent from the field. It’s definitely impressive for a seven-footer to show as much range as he has, but it shouldn’t be the biggest reason you draft Bender.

The game has changed to where most big men are able to shoot the long ball. Maybe they’re not winning the three-point competition but it’s hard to find a player whose game revolves around the paint on offense and unable to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. Sure, Hassan Whiteside and Andre Drummond come to mind, but those types of players are becoming a dying breed.

The days are over when Dirk Nowitzki was the only three-point shooting seven-footer, or when it was an advantage to have a stretch-four. Now, it’s seen as crazy if a power forward can’t stretch the floor and open up the lane.

Besides, as dominant as Bender is projected to be from behind the arc in a couple of seasons, it’s nothing more than a mere prediction. Because of his lack of playing time, Bender hasn’t been able to display what he’s capable of. It’s not a knock on him as many young, international players come to the NBA with little experience – Mario Hezonja last year – but it shows that he really is the biggest mystery in this year’s draft.

Everything we know about his game is based on potential. He’s able to drive the lane, which creates space for his three-point shot, but he needs to become a better ball-handler to use that part of his game in the NBA.

Even though he’s shown the ability to drive to the basket, he hasn’t been effective in creating shots for himself. That makes him a one-dimensional player when it comes to his three-point shot. Sure, being able to drive the lane and being an above-average passer are all solid parts to his game, but he’ll be seen as mostly a drive and kick shooter when wanting to take a three. Although, what if his three-point shot doesn’t develop to where teams are projecting?

Bender is also very thin at just 220 pounds and doesn’t play well in the paint. That could cause a big problem for Boston as Bender would play similar to Kelly Olynyk. He’s not strong enough to hold his ground down low on either end in an Israeli league, making it concerning that he won’t be anything more than a perimeter player in the NBA. Therefore, he and teams are banking on his three-point shot to develop over the years.

Bender is only 18-years-old so he should continue to develop and bulk up, however, once again, it’s not a certainty. He doesn’t have any go-to post moves right now, isn’t as athletic as Marquese Chriss – my number one big man in the draft – and isn’t a great leaper. That puts a lot of pressure on Bender being able to bulk up if he wants to be an effective post player.

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His lack of athleticism and leaping ability also hurts him on defense. Dragan Bender is a solid pick-and-roll defender and his lateral quickness helps him guard on the perimeter. The problem is you want your seven-footer to be a force in the paint and be the last line of defense.

Most teams don’t project Bender to be a rim protector. He’s not afraid of contact on either end, however, he’s also not a natural shot blocker. Bender will need more than just his height to be a shot blocker in the NBA, and right now players can go right through him too easily.

The fact of the matter is Bender has potential. The ability to be a good rebounder, defender, and offensive player are there, but I’m not sold on him being great in any area. The emphasis on him being a great three-point shooter in the future is bought into too much as most big men are these days.

Also, just because the Celtics have the picks to take chances, doesn’t mean they should. The Celtics are one of the deepest teams in the league and won’t have a lot of minutes to go around for incoming rookies. Later in the draft is when they can should take a chance on a player like Skal Labissiere or Thon Maker, however, they should take the safer bet with the third pick.

They’re not coming off a 73-win season like the Golden State Warriors, they have holes they need to fill. Besides, Bender won’t be ready to make an impact for a couple of seasons and having him develop in the D-League or seeing garbage time won’t help his development.

It’s not to say that Boston needs to only look for NBA-ready players the entire draft, but they have picks later in the draft to take chances on players they can develop. There is too much uncertainty surrounding Bender, and we won’t know how he turns out for a couple of years.

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There may not be a sure thing after the first two picks, however, at least we relatively know what we’re getting out of players like Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield. It’s a risk to pick an international player, especially that early in the draft, so it’d be best if the Celtics tried to help their team for next season and not get caught up in the Kristaps Porzingis hype from last year.