Choose One: Jared Sullinger or Tyler Zeller

If you could only re-sign one of the two, who’d you choose: Sullinger or Zeller?

The clock’s ticking for two Celtics big men.

When this clock strikes midnight on October 31st, players entering the final year of their rookie contracts, who’ve decided to forgo restricted free agency, must have agreed to an extension with their respective teams by that point. The clock to which I’m referring to represents the “early contract extension” deadline.

Both Tyler Zeller and Jared Sullinger are eligible for this extension. While there are a number incentives to refrain from signing this extension – notably the chance to enjoy the spoils of NBA (restricted) free agency courtship – the early extension offers a safety net that’s forsaken if free agency’s chosen instead.

More from Celtics News

With the salary cap rising from $70 million to an estimated $90 million for the 2016-2017 season, the Celtics could undoubtedly afford both Sullinger and Zeller – even if both are signed for $10+ million/year (as they’re expected to). However, the Celtics already have nine players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2016-2017 season, prompting the question: is there room for both Sullinger and Zeller?

So let’s pretend, for the sake of conversation, that Danny Ainge can only re-sign one of the two. Also, bear in mind that both players are similarly valued and thus, estimated to fetch comparably-sized deals. So which of the two is more deserving at this point?

Looking Ahead at the 2016-2017 Season

One future story line worth noting is the possibility of the Celtics having five picks in next year’s draft. This could potentially bring the number of guaranteed contracts up from nine to 14. Chances are, the Celtics will only have two or three first round picks in 2016 but – if the Celtics still have 11+ guaranteed contracts following the 2016 draft – it means plenty of movable contracts for Ainge that he can hopefully use to flip for proven all-stars.

One reason to sign both Zeller and Sullinger would be because it’d give the Celtics an opportunity to trade both of them for something. Alternatively, Danny could just not send a qualifying offer, and simply let them walk. But if we let one walk, we’d receive nothing in exchange besides cap space. However, it wouldn’t be the end of the world, especially factoring how neither have a considerable amount of trade value.

With the two entering restricted free agency, the Celtics – in an effort to retain either – could end up overpaying for one of them in a bidding war. While letting both walk would clear up some of the clutter in the Celtics’ depth chart. For this season, we already know front court rotation will be chaos with eight big men expecting play time, but the 2016 Celtics’ front court could be equally cluttered too, especially if the Celtics pick up both Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko‘s affordable team options.

The 2016-2017 season’s depth chart looks like this:

PG: Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, Terry Rozier

SG: Avery Bradley, R.J. Hunter

SF: Jae Crowder, James Young

PF: Jordan Mickey, Jonas Jerebko

C: Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk

If both Sullinger or Zeller were to re-sign, the ideal big man rotation of four players (not even mentioning Crowder who’ll play half his minutes at PF) would become an unwieldy six man rotation. Plus, as it stands, really none of the above big men seem like players worth building around. They’re all great players, capable of playing meaningful minutes on a contender, but none of them will catapult this team into a contender. Therefore, Ainge will likely use most of the remaining draft picks to either draft a center or flip for an established center.

The Case for Re-signing Jared Sullinger

Keeping Sullinger will end up costing the Celtics over $10 million/year. But for this upcoming season, Sullinger is still playing on his rookie contract. And by next season, the salary cap will be an estimated $90 million, so even if we retain Sullinger at $10 million a season (he could very well make +$15 million, too), his salary will only comprise of 1/9th of their cap space. Ainge will therefore have a ton of cap space to work with.

Simply having an exorbitant amount of spending money shouldn’t be an excuse to pay for something. This applies for re-signing Jared Sullinger, too. But Sully does bring legitimate talent to the Celtics, last year averaging 13.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg and 2.3 apg in 27 minutes.

Sure, he shoots too many three pointers, is historically injury-prone and predominantly overweight (he’s lost some weight this offseason), he’s still extremely young and capable of making significant strides once he matures. Besides, between him and the 25-year-old Zeller, Sully has more potential to develop into an all-star. But in order to make the leap into an all-star player, in-shape Sullinger mustn’t prove a temporary phenomena and he’ll need to improve his three-point shooting before he can become the stretch-four he aspires to be.

But even if Sullinger was to regain all of his recently-lost weight, he’d still be an important piece of the Celtics, considering he’s one of the few above-average rebounders on the roster. Last year, his per-36 stats (averages adjusted for 36 minutes a game) were 17.7 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 3.1 apg. Of course – in order for Sully to average these numbers in 36 minutes – he’d have to do so with less time to rest. With stamina being a big question mark for Sullinger, it’s doubtful he’d have averaged these numbers if given this increased playing time.

There were only 10 players who averaged over 10 rebounds per game last season, all of whom played over 30 minutes a game. As noted, if Sullinger had played the minutes of a starter, he’d have proportionally averaged over 10 rebounds as well. He also posted a respectable 15.4 total rebounding percentage (% of total rebounds when he’s on the floor), good enough to be in the top-30 last season. And while his numbers aren’t impressive enough to render him elite, as mentioned, the potential’s certainly there for him to grow.

Sullinger’s offensive talents often go understated because of his pedestrian three-point shooting, which dominates the rhetoric surrounding his offense. Three attempts a game from behind-the-arc while shooting only 28% is undoubtedly, excessive. Yet, if I’m not mistaken, Brad Stevens did give Sullinger the green light to shoot from there. So in the meantime, let’s just be thankful that he’s not shooting an Antoine Walker-esque eight 3PA/game.

One of Sullinger’s best plays is when he puts the ball on the floor and barrels his way into the lane and shoots over his back-peddling defender. It’s not a pretty sight, but it’s effective – denoted by his 63% shooting from within three feet. His shot from mid-range is effective as well; between 16 and 25 feet he made a respectable 48%. Unfortunately, Sullinger only shot 10% of his shots from this range, compared to 26% from three. If the Celtics can adjust their offensive sets a little to create more looks for Sullinger within this range, there’s going to be a significant rise in efficiency for him.

The issue is that Sullinger can’tcreate shots for himself unless they’re off-the-dribble – where he uses his weight/strength to create – and not his (lacking) speed. If his newfound-smaller frame means a faster Sullinger, then we may see a more offensively-talented Sully – but to this point – Sully’s offensive game has been severely-handicapped by his weight.

But as I mentioned, Sullinger’s only 22, and if his weight loss yields a more all-around player, he may earn himself a max contract. But his ability to sustain his current weight/stay healthy remains the big question mark. This season will be Sullinger’s biggest season then, as it’ll influence his next contract infinitely-more than his previous seasons.

The Case for Re-signing Tyler Zeller

If you put the second half of last season in a vacuum, this article’s question becomes a no-brainer.

Because of injury, Sullinger was largely absent while his teammates embarked on an epic playoff push. The team finally found its groove and thus played their best basketball in the Brad Stevens era.

During this run, Zeller started while Sullinger watched from the sidelines. He gave the Celtics a scoring option from the low post while also proving deadly from the elbows. He gave the Celtics’ ball-handlers a reliable option on both pick n’ pops and pick n’ rolls.

He thrived under Brad Stevens, whose system often deploys horns sets, which largely set up big men from the top of the key. Horns sets were conducive to Zeller’s style of play, as he ended up shooting 55% from the floor, while posting an 18.9 PER – the second-highest on the Celtics.

This was an over three point increase in PER from the year prior when he was with the Cavaliers. Stevens recognized Zeller’s strengths – capitalizing on his pick n’ roll/pick n’ pop abilities by often positioning him at the top of the key, where he’d set screens around the free throw line (whether to roll or pop it) or hand the ball off to curling wings.

In the above video, watch the dispirited 76ers repeatedly double-team the screened ball handler, and as a result, leave Zeller wide open at the charity stripe. He hit all these shots with ease as his level of comfort from this range was palpable. Additionally, in the very first play of the video, you can see the right-handed Zeller throw up a left-handed jump-hook.

Zeller’s offensive game was far more polished than the Celtics were led to believe when we landed him last offseason in a salary dump. Unfortunately – because of how much he over-performed this season – his value has skyrocketed relative to how low it was last season. As a result, he’ll fetch a similar contract as Sullinger. Yet unlike Sully, one thing Zeller has going for him is his health, illustrated by him appearing in every game last year and over 70 games in each of his three previous seasons.

Betting on Zeller would be the far less risky bet than betting on Sullinger, who still has tons to prove. At this point, you kind of know what you’re going to get with Zeller, which is a talented center who – on a contender – would ideally be coming off the bench. Although Zeller can still improve, Sullinger has far more room to grow as he matures as a player.

So for a Celtics squad that’s looking for a centerpiece, it may be better to lock-up Zeller instead of Sullinger. Zeller has proven himself to be a reliable complimentary player who has a far better track record concerning health than Sullinger. Sadly, I don’t see Sullinger making an all-star jump anytime soon, and if for whatever reason he does, it’d be more a testament to the Eastern Conference’s inferiority than to Sullinger’s skill.

Next: Top Five Perimeter Defenders in Celtics History

More from Hardwood Houdini

Home/Celtics News