Celtics’ Cold November – Opening Month Thoughts

The Celtics’ first calendar month came to a close with a double-digit loss to the defending NBA champions, San Antonio Spurs.  Losing 7 of 8 games to close the month has pushed Boston to within 2.5 games of 14th place in the conference, a de facto last place standing, considering the task it will be to have a record worse than the 0-16 76ers.  Losing 7 of 8 stings particularly considering the Cs have been swept during their last two homestands.  The first of the two saw Boston losing games to a beatable Thunder team (L 109-94, 12 November) and a Phoenix Suns team (L 118-114, 14 November) that’s holding the 8th playoff spot in the West.  Those losses sandwiched perhaps the most insufferable loss of the year to LBJ, Kevin Love, and the Cleveland Cavs 122-121 in a game Boston led by as many as 19 in the 4th.  The second set of home sweeps came at the hands of the Portland, Chicago (with Rose), and San Antonio.

After starting off the season (technically last month, October 29) with a win against the Nets, victories have been  hard to come by.  The team won two straight in early November, topping Indiana and Chicago (without Rose) on back-to-back nights.  The only other win this season was a winless Sixers team.

Currently, Boston sits at 4 wins (10 losses), tied in wins with New York and Charlotte.   Detroit (with 3) and Philadelphia (with 0) trail Boston in the wins column.  The Celtics seem to be a position for another high draft pick, gaining access to a pool with ample talent in the top 4-5 positions, which seems to indicate a continuance in building the team through the draft.  Has the Celtics manner of play accelerated any changes in the immediate direction of the team?  Should it?

Boston’s good performances have been highlighted by players that may not be part of the long-term rebuilding process, due to some combination of age and attractiveness to another team.

Jeff Green has played well for the Celtics this year, notching nearly 18 PPG while pulling down 5 boards per game.  He has shows flashes of aggressiveness on the offensive end and his perceived growth and well as physical gifts could make him attractive to a team needing big-wing or small-ball-4 help.  Green has driven well all year, scoring on multiple big dunks while looking for shots while on the perimeter.  Green has fallen off his early season three-point process and now is shooting 26.5% for the season from deep.  However, in a role where Jeff is complementary, the space between his flashes could be hidden better and his eruptions could potentially tip the tide of some important games.  Green has averaged 35 MPG this year and with the Celtics thin at SF, it could be in everyone’s interest for Green to complete the year in green and be replaced by a cheaper, younger option during the off-season.

Brandon Bass continues to provide quality PF minutes off the bench.  Bass had strong games against Cleveland (12 points, 5-8 FGs) and Philly (23 points, 9-13 FGs) and recently versus Chicago (16 pts, 9 rebounds).

Rajon Rondo manned the PG position to a near triple-double average (9.9/7.5/10.6) while providing his typical defensive effort.  While Rondo can suffer in one-on-one defense, his length and anticipation allow his to be a pest to the passing lanes and general offensive execution.  Rondo leads the team with 1.7 steals per game.  Rondo did not play particularly well during the win versus the Sixers (6 TOs) or Pacers (4-10 FGs) and did not suit up against Chicago early.  Rondo’s best game of the season came in a loss to OKC (20/9/12) but he did get a win during his next best outing in the opener against the Nets (13/7/12, 6-9 FGs).

With all three aforementioned players, the question regarding their tenure with the Celtics seems to be return.  Bass and Green can be absorbed by a team in terms of identity.  Neither play will rock any boat and their contributions can be nearly silent, as they’d likely to provide bench production and depth to a playoff team.  Boston could deal both players off in deals that accumulate assets while giving the trading partner a safe return on the investment of a future pick.  While the value will be determined by the demand, their ability to be traded is high.

Rondo, however, symbolizes a real change to the approach of a team.  Also, given the strength of the position, a Rondo deal may mean a PG or highly-paid player come back.  At this point, the benefit of the assets returned for Rondo will be something that may take up a good portion of Danny Ainge‘s time.  The arguments to keep, trade, or walk away from Rondo can be argued (and perhaps will) but his ability to be traded requires something more in a partner.   For those wanting to see Rondo traded, I think the only logical partners are the Knicks (Stoudemire, etc.) and perhaps if the Kings get aggressive, perhaps adding both Rondo and Rondo friend, Josh Smith.  I would like a return of McLemore or Stauskas along with Jason Thompson or Carl Landry (for salary) once the free-agent trade restriction period ends.

For those who seem to be part of the next few years, Jared Sullinger seems to be a great find.  After being drafted late in 2012 (#21), Sully provides strong PF play this year averaging 16.5 PPG while leading the team with 8.5 rebounds per game.  I think shot selection is Sully’s lone glaring weakness.  His infatuation with the three-point shot can be both a benefit and a detriment.  For the year, Sully is at 31% for 2014, despite starting 2-18 from 3 PT territory for the year.  Sully’s running mate has seemingly taken himself out of the starting lineup with inconsistent play.  Kelly Olynyk strung together a nice run of games earlier in the year, scoring in double-figured five consecutive games.   Recently, KO has really suffered, including a 27-minute, 0-point effort versus Portland.  Since the Cleveland loss, Olynyk has suffered nearly every game, only being saved by a strong quarter in Memphis.  Olynyk was replaced in the starting lineup against San Antonio in favor of Tyler Zeller.  Zeller’s play has been welcome.  Tyler’s been the most pleasant suprise for me during the young season.  His willingness to be physical has allowed the defensive to end possessions.  His ability to roll off picks and his the offensive glass has been benefits for the offense.  Overall, his hustle have really been helpful all around and his contributions are so much higher than what I expected to see out of the third big prior to the off-season trade to acquire him.

The Boston backcourt is completely in flux.  The early season injury to Marcus Smart has given minutes to deeper bench players in Marcus Thornton and Evan Turner.  Those two plus Smart, Rondo, and a re-signed Avery Bradley create a hierarchy where it seems some sort of move seems necessary.  Smart must come back and establish his strong position so Boston can make a decision on the other guard position.   One worries about the best way to extract Smart’s talent while giving enough minutes to justify the $8MM Avery Bradley earns and allowing Rajon Rondo to be the starting PG (at a max salary).

Smart provided enough in his pre-injury time to elicit hope.  Smart, in small doses, showed the reason he was an elite college player and the Celtics pick, a combination of fearlessness and skill.  When that kind of player works (see Russell Westbrook), mistakes are limited, emotions are harnessed, and resolve is steal.  If Marcus Smart can show that ability, Boston will have no choice to have him in the lineup.  If he had spent the entire  year showing that ability, Rondo might already have been moved.

The decisions Boston needs to make are difficult ones.  There are many available paths and all have some merit.  It is up to Boston’s front office, particularly Danny Ainge, to make the correct play.  So far, despite the 4-10 record, disappointments are not overflowing.  I wish KO would have not found his way into this funk but I love the way Zeller and Sully have played along with how KO has played in most spurts.  Shoot when open, Kelly.  I love the talent that he brings but needs to bring it to every game.

The wing position looks to be in transition.  Jeff Green may come back next year.  He may be here long-term.  But he also could really be moved for a number or reasons.  I do expect the Celtics best wing early on to be with Team Green pending an offer Danny can’t turn down.  Should that trade happen, I would consider that a sign that the trade business is about to pick up.

Boston’s backcourt has a lot of talent, a pile of possibilities, but need an identity.  Boston backups Paul Pressey and Marcus Thornton often show the most effort, which is not expected given their status as deep bench players.  Along with “Crash” Wallace, the vets seem to encompass Tommy Points more than the young guys have.  Boston needs a full team effort to not only win games but to properly evaluate talent.

Coaching and front office seem to be successfully communicating and staying out of each others way.  Seeing the focus Brad Stevens puts on teaching pleases me when I consider the type of basketball acumen that is being passed around in practice.  I feel Coach Stevens approaches his rotations well, giving good minutes to those playing hard not only with quantity of minutes but quality (see Zeller getting Rondo time).  I trust Danny Ainge has the same desired path for this team – a consistent build to a top tier-team, one that uses its resources at the right time, and who ends up peaking at a position where players are able to be retained , keeping open a championship window by shrewd moves and championship focus.