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Jared Sullinger: Legitimate Stretch-4, Or Preseason Fool’s Gold?

By Richard Spalding

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Four games into the preseason, Jared Sullinger has given Boston Celtics fans reason to believe that the team’s failure to acquire Kevin Love might have been a good thing.

(Keep in mind that I am taking into consideration what the Celtics would have had to give up in order to acquire Love.   I would have enjoyed seeing him play for Boston as much as anyone, but not if it meant selling the farm, which it clearly would have.)

So far, Sullinger is averaging 14.5 points per game on 52.3% shooting.   Perhaps the most exciting part of Jared Sullinger’s game in the preseason, however, has been his success from behind the arc.  Sure, it is a small sample size, but at this point Sullinger has attempted twelve 3-pointers, and knocked down seven, good for 58.3%.  (All statistics courtesy of CBS Sports.com.)

As an under-sized player who frequents the 4 and 5 spots, Sullinger’s desire to become a reliable 3-point shooter makes sense: 

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"Honestly, when I’m playing the 4 or the 5, nine times out of 10 I’ll have the best shot blocker.   Me spacing the floor is really going to help us because we kind of take the shot blocker out of the play. As long as we do that, we’ve got people like Jeff (Green), ET (Evan Turner), Marcus Thornton, (Rajon) Rondo when he comes back, Avery (Bradley) – all those slashers getting to the basket, knowing that I’m spaced out to the 3-point line and the shot blocker has to either pick the basket or me. The way I’m shooting the ball, hopefully it continues. And there could be some trouble."

I notice Jared Sullinger didn’t use an “if” in his statement: if it continues, there could be some trouble.  The “if” is implied, however, based on Sullinger’s career numbers.  After all, Sully is only shooting .268 from beyond the arc at this stage of his career, so he would have to show substantial long-term improvement in this facet of his game for opposing defenses to even think about allowing Sullinger’s man to come out and defend him.

To hear Avery Bradley talk, none of us should be using Sullinger’s past to predict his future:

"You hear people say stuff to him [Sullinger] about his percentage last year, but he doesn’t care about that.  Nor should he. He’s an amazing shooter. I know he’s going to shoot very well this year. Him and Kelly."

It should be noted that Bradley DOES see Sullinger at practice every day, so he is basing his opinion of his teammate’s shooting on a much larger sample size than we can analyze.  And to be fair, our sample size was but one season worth of shooting – a season that was spent largely without the Boston Celtics’ best player, Rajon Rondo, on the court.

Still, as much as I want to envision a future in which the Celtics spread their big men all over the  place, freeing up space in the paint for players such as Rondo, Marcus Smart, Evan Turner, and Jeff Green to go to work, I’m going to remain skeptical about how worthy Jared Sullinger is of  the stretch-4 label.  The rationale behind his wanting to extend the defense is sound, and clearly coach Brad Stevens has given Sullinger the green light to try and make this happen.

But think back to how many times last year we watched Sully launch an ill-advised three, or suffered through games in which he clearly didn’t have the touch, but kept looking for it , anyways.   It takes more than a sweet stroke to become a legit stretch 4; Sullinger is going to have to prove to me that he can only knock down the shot, but keep himself from falling in love with.  He has to know WHEN to use that weapon, when NOT to, and when he should remain in the low post because he can’t hit the broadside of a barn.

The thought of watching Sullinger and Olynyk create match-up nightmares for opposing teams is a tantalizing one, for certain.   I’m not on board the “Keep shooting, Sully!” train yet – but I’ve got a whole lot of time to buy my ticket.

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